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19 comments on Go ahead and drive less

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mw on September 25, 2005 - 10:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
I consider myself and family early adopters of a car-free (or in our case, a car-reduced) lifestyle. We got into this some years ago and have made choices to reduce our need for transportation, but have also taken it a step further and equipped ourselves with tandem bicycles for ourselves so we can travel to and fro with our kids.

I mention this to underscore that we are very aware of who is doing what in our extended circle of friends, families and colleagues. Leaving out the dedicated bike folks, who were all dedicated bike folks at 20 and 30$/bbl, the only perceptible change I've noted in "regular" folks is that a few are walking their kids to school on nice days instead of driving... but rarely, and not as a result of higher prices.

I'm sure the recent rise in prices, and the talk about supply and demand over the past year or so, has triggered more than a few like-minded folks to at least consider alternatives, but I'm willing to bet, based on our experience, that very few have taken substantial measures to change their energy impact.

The poor and those who were already living on the edge of their paycheck? Yes, I can see them trading in a car, if they had one, for a bus pass, if their work/life situation allows for it.

But for the vast majority of middle-income suburbia it seems that changing attitudes stops at grumbling unless there is real hardship thrust upon them.

Higher prices have a way of causing immediate reduction and grumbling, but over time, people get used to them. Dramatically higher prices might change attitudes, but I wonder if we'll be fortunate to experience that... more likely, if Peak Oil is arrived at through a series of plateau events, we'll keep going through these shock-grumble-acceptance-use more cycles.

What would really work to change attitudes... is actual shortage.

PS: overnight, energy futures are on the rise again. NG X contract is actually a tad higher than Friday's close; both X and V contracts rose from today's lows on somewhat higher volume than today's decline showed.

There may be some sellers who wished they didn't. We'll see.

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ChrisPhoenix on September 26, 2005 - 4:46am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I'm a bit confused by this... you seem to assume that if prices go up without actual shortages, we'll inevitably be making things worse.

But... suppose prices go up to $90 per barrel and stay there for two years, then ratchet up to $100 for a while, $110...

Sooner or later, in that scenario, alternative energy will start coming online. And it won't all be carbon-heavy fuels. If we can hold out for ten or fifteen years without shortage, while prices stay high enough to make other forms of power profitable, then we may have enough technologies (worthwhile solar cells, better batteries for plug-in hybrids, etc.) to actually reduce our oil demand.

As long as I'm being optimistic, I'll suggest that we might even be able to increase our energy supply without increasing our carbon consumption. Tar sand and coal liquefaction will never be all that cheap, and there may be some exciting stuff happening in solar (reel-to-reel solar cells) and even batteries.

But, back to pessimistic... I really don't like what I'm reading about Ghawar, and the "if we can hold out for ten or fifteen years" doesn't sound all that likely to me.

Chris

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mw on September 26, 2005 - 5:41am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
you seem to assume that if prices go up without actual shortages, we'll inevitably be making things worse.

Yes, that is a distinct possibility, but whether consumers make big personal changes in their energy consumption habits  (and therefore business will have to adapt) depends on the RATE of change, not the absolute change,

I remember when price moved to 34 cents a litre (I'm in Canada) and at the time we felt it was robbery. Then 50, 60, 70... and a nice break back to "cheap" gas at 45 one summer. What a treat. Now we consider anything under a buck a litre "cheap".

Its all relative. After all, SUV's have been huge sellers for the past decade while energy costs have trended ever higher. The recent rate of change has picked up - that is what is causing all the handwringing and angst, not the price levels themselves.

I won't be surprised if we consider 1,20 a litre or 3.50 a gallon "reasonable" 12 months from now. When consumers get used to a price, they keep on buying, and all historical trends show consumers keep on buying.

The one fly in the ointment is that prices are back to inflation-adjusted OPEC embargo levels, but the pundits are doing their job, reminding us all that oil is a much smaller component going into GDP then it was back then.

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mw on September 26, 2005 - 5:45am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
By the way European markets are ramping up early this morning - huge, almost unheard of moves - all on "Rita", it sure would be a cool day for a bit of "surprise" bad news once Europe closes.

US market index futures are not up as strongly ahead of the open but at the current levels there will be a gap up open and then.. who knows.

I'm sure markets will hold up until more detail is known and if the conclusion is "what me worry", well, its up in broader markets, down in energy, until something else clouds the horizon.

Seems a bit otherworldly out there today LOL.

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19 comments on Go ahead and drive less

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