<Go ahead and drive less The Oil Drum Aren't a lot of people's lives changing for the worse?>

10 comments on Is no news good news, or bad?

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Charles Mackay on September 25, 2005 - 11:47pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Natural gas this evening is trading below the peaks reached about a month ago with Katrina.  Therefore, if the market was efficient, it is saying Rita caused no supply disruptions at all.

Of course, the market is not totally efficient, influenced by speculation, subject to changes in exchange rules and 'force majueres', and even possibly direct government intervention - which by its nature would be secret and impossible to directly prove.

Even so, I don't see NG prices headed lower without a serious recession [ps I don't trade futures].

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mw on September 26, 2005 - 12:12am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Again, whether or not price is below the Katrina peak from late August is irrelevant at this point -- price remains in an up trend.

http://www.trendvue.com/charts/2005/09/tv20050925-01.gif

(overnight NGV5 is a 12.22 at present)

An uptrend is characterized by higher swing highs and higher swing lows. In order to break this up trend - in other words, to reverse it - price will have to start making lower swing lows and lower swing highs, under the 10.50 (approx) levels.

And it will have to do that leading into the winter.

We can almost guarantee that is not going to happen.

So, at best (if one doesn't like higher prices), price will find some level of support and chop around for the fall and winter; at worse, supply has been damaged to the point where it will not meet demand and we'll all be notching the heaters down.

Price currently tells us so far that the latter scenario still remains possible, if not more probable than the former.

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10 comments on Is no news good news, or bad?

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