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51 comments on Aren't a lot of people's lives changing for the worse?

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Charles Mackay on September 26, 2005 - 12:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks all for considering my roughly outlined hypothetical situation concerning the possible manipulation of energy futures by the government.  Some good points above, even from those I do not entirely agree with.

Kunstler, in today's missive, also suspects government intervention:
http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary15.html

Like I previously implied, the energy markets won't be fooled my short term manipulation.  Let's see how these October energy contracts settle in the next few days.  No I don't have nay proof, but wild last minute fluctuations in the closing days of a contract may indirectly reveal what can not be proved.
Regards.

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mw on September 26, 2005 - 1:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
If they intervened on Friday and Sunday, where then, pray tell, are they today?

NG, CL both rallying quite strongly, setting up the stage for what is known as the "piercing line" candle reversal pattern at a point where price could be said to have found "support" (thus implying the ability to rally higher).

Sometimes Occam's law makes sense.

Given two equally predictive theories, choose the simplest.

In this case, the simplest is that regular traders are the principle drivers of energy markets whether energy markets go up or down.

I've mentioned a number of times over the weekend that my expectation was for a short covering rally if not a "common sense" rally ... and here it is.

Long energy, short broader markets I remain.

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Charles Mackay on September 29, 2005 - 12:22am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Guess what?  There were wild last minute price changes as October natural gas contracts expired today.  What changed from yesterday?  The NYMEX did extend its force majeure to October contracts.  So you may want to believe today's skyrocketing NG prices reacted to that news, but its seems more like short covering of a very big trader to me.

If we don't hear of any major trading firm with losses, then who has the deep pockets to lose so much???

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51 comments on Aren't a lot of people's lives changing for the worse?

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