I am observing behavior that indicates the gas company seriously wants to hedge against falling gas prices. I don't need to know the details of their analysis to see that is what they are doing.

My own assessment of gas supply is irrelevant to all this. I'm an observer of a dog barking in the night.

Fred, perhaps they are hedging against $20 for you, expecting that they will be the ones who have to deal with irate customers? Just a thought. What was the price they offered?
There is an alternative explanation, which is actually 180 degrees from your assessment.  Most public service nat gas utilities are heavily regulated at the retail level, meaning, in order to raise rates they have to go before a public service commission to approve the rate hike.  If they think wholesale gas is going to continue to stay at the high price now, or even go higher, they're going to want to lock you in at that high price now, to hedge against all those customers who don't lock in.  Why?  Because the PSC may decide to implement price celings as a polically palatable solution, and the nat gas utility is going to take a major hit on these customers who are paying artifically lower prices because a rate hike just wasn't going to go over well.  So why not try to scare more "reliable" customers into locking in at a higher rate to offset that possibility?  At least this way they don't lose as much.