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Stuart Staniford on September 27, 2005 - 2:33am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
I'm staring at that graph and the blue average band doesn't look right. The left hand side and the right hand side should wrap into each other. The values match, but there's a completely sharp change in first derivative at both the top and bottom of the blue band. I can't think of any plausible explanation for that.
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Sealth on September 27, 2005 - 2:38am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It looks like sloppy graph drawing to me. I think the data is based on monthly increments, and the graph drawer made a notional effort to do some curve fitting, but didn't work very hard at it.
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mw on September 27, 2005 - 9:07am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Also don't forget that the lines plotted over these 'average bands' are themselves averages. The weekly EIA reports use 4 week averages to report all numbers.

Averages can hide things... when traders react to X being over or under the 5 year average, its often without benefit of realizing that the "average band" would be higher if a smaller averaging period were used. 2001 was an anomoly year... and demand has been very strong over the past 2 years:

1.2% 2000 (for comparison)
0.7% 2001
1.0% 2002
1.6% 2003
3.1% 2004
3.8% (2005 est, it will be lower, but still high)

Stocks must be near the high end of the 5 year range or we are in trouble!

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mw on September 27, 2005 - 2:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
MMS Status - oil shut out edged up a little higher from 1,527,630 BOPD. NG shut in down ever so slightly. Now 5 days in, almost virtual GOM total shut down.

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Today's shut-in oil production is 1,512,937 BOPD.  This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 100% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.

Today's shut-in gas production is 7.856 BCFPD.  This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 78.56% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.

The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period 8/26/05-9/27/05 is 36,361,383 bbls, which is equivalent to 6.641 % of the yearly production of oil in the GOM (approximately 547.5 million barrels).

The cumulative shut-in gas production 8/26/05-9/27/05 is 172.506 BCF, which is equivalent to 4.726% of the yearly production of gas in the GOM (approximately 3.65 TCF).

http://www.mms.gov/ooc/press/2005/press0927.htm

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Kyle on September 27, 2005 - 7:47am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It's the 5 year average - if there was a big net annual draw or build in the first or last of the 5 years, the figure would not necessarily be periodic.

BTW - I don't buy the "30 million down, but 190 million left so no problem" argument.  There needs to be enough gasoline in the system to keep things flowing - think of natural gas, where there has to be enough gas in storage to maintain pipeline pressure.  No one seems to publicize the number at which the supply system breaks down...

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39 comments on Another picture that tells a story

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