<Our Insider and Rigzone say the damage is bad...but the question is how bad? The Oil Drum Fiscal Unsustainability>

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Sealth on September 27, 2005 - 2:38am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It looks like sloppy graph drawing to me. I think the data is based on monthly increments, and the graph drawer made a notional effort to do some curve fitting, but didn't work very hard at it.
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mw on September 27, 2005 - 9:07am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Also don't forget that the lines plotted over these 'average bands' are themselves averages. The weekly EIA reports use 4 week averages to report all numbers.

Averages can hide things... when traders react to X being over or under the 5 year average, its often without benefit of realizing that the "average band" would be higher if a smaller averaging period were used. 2001 was an anomoly year... and demand has been very strong over the past 2 years:

1.2% 2000 (for comparison)
0.7% 2001
1.0% 2002
1.6% 2003
3.1% 2004
3.8% (2005 est, it will be lower, but still high)

Stocks must be near the high end of the 5 year range or we are in trouble!

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mw on September 27, 2005 - 2:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
MMS Status - oil shut out edged up a little higher from 1,527,630 BOPD. NG shut in down ever so slightly. Now 5 days in, almost virtual GOM total shut down.

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Today's shut-in oil production is 1,512,937 BOPD.  This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 100% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.

Today's shut-in gas production is 7.856 BCFPD.  This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 78.56% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.

The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period 8/26/05-9/27/05 is 36,361,383 bbls, which is equivalent to 6.641 % of the yearly production of oil in the GOM (approximately 547.5 million barrels).

The cumulative shut-in gas production 8/26/05-9/27/05 is 172.506 BCF, which is equivalent to 4.726% of the yearly production of gas in the GOM (approximately 3.65 TCF).

http://www.mms.gov/ooc/press/2005/press0927.htm

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39 comments on Another picture that tells a story

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