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76 comments on When Does Hubbert Linearization Work?

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Eroie Van Tanstaafl on September 29, 2005 - 2:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
From what I've gathered about the math behind these curves, I don't think there are good answers to the concerns you are raising vis error analysis.

Hubbert was not a mathematician or an econmist.  He drew his curves by hand, and calculated the areas underneath them by counting the squares on his graph paper and guessing.  He assumes logistic growth and decline, and some of the field curves look like logistic curves.

But I'm not seeing a lot of advanced statistical (or econometric) methods or models yet from the peakers.  Drawing and fitting curves is meaningless - its the equations the curves reflect and the relation of the variables in the equations to the facts in the ground that provide meaning.

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ChrisPhoenix on September 29, 2005 - 7:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Counting squares under a curve is not "guessing," it is measuring. It's the way things were done back in the days before computers.

If this non-argument is the best you can do, maybe the Peak Oil people are right.

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76 comments on When Does Hubbert Linearization Work?

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