More fundamentally, I do not believe the following country by country CERA numbers (by 2010)
  • Nigeria +1.27/mbd
  • Russia +1.15/mbd
  • Iraq +1.00/mbd
  • Iran +1.00 mbd
On Russia, they said "there had been growth of +600/kbd/year in the last 4 years which will slow to +200/kbd/year this year and next. Presumably, we can expect this over the period 2005 to 2010. Sorry, feeling skeptical on this one. Why, exactly, is production declining there? Nigeria is a mess. Iraq is a mess. Iran is in a showdown to the death with the West over nuclear issues.

I'm less certain about
  • Angola +1.35 mbd
  • Caspian Sea +2.5/mbd
For both my concern is geopolitical instability, not the reserves or capacity.

Finally, I'm just skipping Saudi Arabia for the moment but I don't trust Aramco's (Ali bin Ibrahim Al-Naimi's) estimates. Don't get me wrong:

I love the Saudi Arabian Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources
Minor correction to my post:

Why, exactly, is [percent increase] production declining there?

Also, looking around, I'm finding it hard to get production numbers from Russia and projections which are not from the Russian news services. Which I don't exactly trust, know what I mean?