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24 comments on You mean we don't have to pay CERA/Yergin $2500 for 33 pages?

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mw on September 4, 2005 - 2:57pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
China's stated goal is doubling of economic size by either 2020 or 2025 - restated in the past year by its president. At the of the statement I calculated the avg annual growth needed and it was indeed right on the 9% line which its been following.

Higher oil prices no doubt will cause some slowing but how much remains to be seen.

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Halfin on September 4, 2005 - 3:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Years to double and percent growth are related by the "rule of 70". Divide one into 70 and get the other. To double in 20 years is about 70/20 or 3.5% growth per year. To double in 15 years is 70/15 or about 4.7% growth per year.

9% growth per year would double in 70/9 or 7.8 years! That would be quite a feat.

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mw on September 5, 2005 - 8:40am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Can't remember where my brain was at when I did that calculation but likely did not factor in compounding.

So many details, so little time.

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24 comments on You mean we don't have to pay CERA/Yergin $2500 for 33 pages?

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