"As I have argued before, the situation is so uncertain that IMO it is premature to say that the case has been made for a near term Peak Oil scenario. When two careful and thorough studies come to such different conclusions, that is further evidence of this truth."

Bingo!  This is the issue I keep trying to stress to people online and in person: Anyone making PO predictions is guessing, and if they don't admit they're guessing then they're deceiving you.  (Yes, I make PO and energy predictions all the time, but I make a point of saying that I'm guessing.)

This is why I have a problem with people like Pfeiffer saying that gas prices will continue to rise this year (quoted upthread), or Kunstler saying just about anything.  Yes, we should look at possibilities and try our best to be prepared for contingencies, but we should also be honest about where the facts end and the extrapolations begin.

I agree completely with Simmons and others who are calling for vastly improved transparency in all aspects of oil reserves and production.  Not that I think we'll ever see it; there are just too many incentives for the keepers of said information to maintain secrecy.