While I personally think it's too soon to relax, I think that there's a growing feeling that we'll have price fluctuations but no outright shortages.  People don't like unpredictable prices, but fuel shortages are the monster under our beds.  (Yes, this is a classist view; for someone who can barely afford $3 gasoline to get to work, a rise to $3.50 or $4 would be extremely painful.)

My biggest concern right now is that gasoline prices easing a little could tempt consumers to assume that the worst is over and prices will "be back to normal soon" (gasoline at around $2).  Probably the best indicator of mass consumer sentiment will be the level and mix of car sales for the rest of 2005.  If we see very low MPG vehicles rebound, even with gasoline above $2.80, then it's a bad sign and right back to square one.  If people remain cautious, buy fewer cars overall, and then favor the higher MPG models for the ones they do buy, we can conclude that either people are scared spitless or they're starting to get the message about oil.  (This assumes no major change in other factors influencing car sales, obviously.)

I've said it before, and I'll say it many more times: Look out your window--this is what interesting times looks like.

I came across a journal article a few days ago that listed findings of different researchers on the elasticity of vehicle miles traveled relative to gasoline prices.  I'm out of town this weekend, but maybe I'll post it in an open thread or another appropriate location next week.  Folks speculate on this over here all the time, but there is research out there that can inform the discussion.  

Speaking of speculation, I suspect that the key -- as you imply -- is whether the prices are perceived as temporary or permanent.  If they're temporary, then the "employee discount" on that F-250 or Expedition may not sound that bad.  

I've been looking for this type of information. I've seen some articles, but nothing that compelling. I believe you are right about the perception of temporary vs. permanent price increases.
I've been looking as some such papers today. What I haven't found yet is anything that distinguishes between the effect of prices on discretionary trips, and non-discretionary trips (ie when are miles traveled dropping because economic activity is being reduced for the drivers, and when are they just saving miles without otherwise affecting their economic behavior).
The well-to-do might accept expensive gasoline, but heating those McMansions this winter is gonna hurt.