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49 comments on CERA Page (or is it year) 2 projects

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Stuart Staniford on September 8, 2005 - 10:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I understand that Campbell/Lahaherre do, it's just that they are based off a proprietary database (PetroConsultants) so no-one can effectively replicate their work or critique their assumptions. Their work is the basis of the ASPO projections (the famous one with the 2007 peak). Matt Simmons has done a field by field survey also, but it's not public to the best of my knowledge (investment bankers often like to keep their best research for clients). Deffeyes has stuck to just fitting a logistic to the global production data.
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JD on September 8, 2005 - 11:44pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I understand that Campbell/Lahaherre do, it's just that they are based off a proprietary database (PetroConsultants)

Petroconsultants was acquired by IHS Energy in 1996.
http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/company/cnn80709.htm

IHS Energy acquired CERA in Sept. 2004
http://cera.com/news/details/1,2318,6834,00.html

so no-one can effectively replicate their work or critique their assumptions.

IHS can. I'm telling you folks, something is fishy here. Are you telling me Boone Pickens, who runs a billion dollar energy hedge fund, hasn't purchased the detailed data from CERA/IHS? And yet he's going on TV saying:

"Never again will we pump more than 82 million barrels."
-- T. Boone Pickens, 9th August 2004. On the Kudlow and Cramer Show, MSNBC.
http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2004/08/23/living-with-the-age-of-entropy/

"Global oil [production] is 84 million barrels [per day]. I don't believe you can get it any more than 84 million barrels."
-- T. Boone Pickens, addressing the 11th National Clean Cities conference in May 2005.
http://www.peakoil.net/BoonPickens.html

"I don't believe that you can increase the supply beyond 84 or 85 million barrel as day."
-- T. Boone Pickens, on "CNN In the Money", June 25, 2005.
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0506/25/cnnitm.01.html

"Supply is--you`ve just about had it on supply; 85 million barrels a day world supply is about it. "
-- T. Boone Pickens, on Hardball with Chris Matthews, MSNBC, Aug. 26, 2005
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9118826/

Very fishy. I'm telling you, Boone knows the CERA data, and the data Rembrandt put together. He knows oil isn't going to peak until 2012 at the earliest. It strains credulity to think otherwise.

Matt Simmons has the money and the motive (as an energy investment banker) to buy the CERA data too. He didn't??

Matt Simmons has done a field by field survey also,
Do you have a cite for that?

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Stuart Staniford on September 9, 2005 - 1:43am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"Cite on Simmons": no, I can't remember where I read it and can't Google it up right now - apologies. You're treating the Rembrandt analysis as though it's gold. There are massive uncertainties in any analysis of this kind (which is why there's so much controversy over them). To take a very minor example, Rembrandt assumes future UK oil depletion at 7% - not so
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louGrinzo on September 9, 2005 - 7:07am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"Are you telling me Boone Pickens, who runs a billion dollar energy hedge fund, hasn't purchased the detailed data from CERA/IHS? And yet he's going on TV saying: ..."

"Very fishy. I'm telling you, Boone knows the CERA data, and the data Rembrandt put together. He knows oil isn't going to peak until 2012 at the earliest. It strains credulity to think otherwise."

I'm not sure what you're saying--are you implying that Pickens is speaking out this way to push up oil prices?  Or do you think he did it for some other reason?

Also, I'm not convinced Pickens has actually seen the CERA data, or if he has, why should we assume he believes it?  I think there's a good chance he's dismissed it in favor of other information, with or without actually seeing the CERA report.  He's been an oil man for a long time, and he's old enough tha he could very well be, shall we say, a little set in his ways.  

Please understand that I'm not being critical or argumentative here; my intent is solely to point out that we're all guessing about a lot of details, and when we start talking about the motivations of some highly visible people like Pickens, Simmons, Kunstler, or even each other, we're tap dancing on really thin ice.

 

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RayJ on September 9, 2005 - 9:48am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"... and when we start talking about the motivations of some highly visible people like Pickens, Simmons, Kunstler, or even each other, we're tap dancing on really thin ice."

Well said Lou!  The sound/noise ratio really degrades when people start speculating on the motivations of others.  Let's stick to understanding the concepts and data being put foreward and maybe we will all learn something.

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Halfin on September 9, 2005 - 2:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Keep in mind that Pickens is 77 years old. I don't mean to disrespect the man, but I wouldn't try to read to much into the details of what he says. There are a lot of reasons that people that far advanced in their lives and their careers may say things that don't necessarily make sense to outsiders.
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mw on September 9, 2005 - 9:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Talisman Energy CEO (one of the larger independents, Canadian) Dr. Jim Buckee has a similar opinion. He's also on record as believing there are few, if any, big discoveries left to be made in the world as there is very little unknown to be explored in one form or another.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/Page/document/v4/sub/MarketingPage?user_URL=http://www.theglo beandmail.com%2Fservlet%2FArticleNews%2FTPStory%2FLAC%2F20050504%2FRTICKERITEM04%2FTPBusiness%2F%3Fq uery%3Dtalisman&ord=1126284581974&brand=theglobeandmail&force_login=true

In seperate but related news Rising oil demand could severely strain the world's oil production and transportation systems late this year, predicts Jim Buckee, chief executive officer of Talisman Energy Inc.He suggested that projected demand of 86 million barrels of oil a day in the fourth quarter may not be met by enough supply.

During the Talisman annual meeting in Calgary, Mr. Buckee said conservation and energy efficiency was the "most important" way to reduce oil demand, adding that widespread use of alternatives to oil and natural gas was "extremely unlikely."

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49 comments on CERA Page (or is it year) 2 projects

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