The Oil Drum | Linearizing a Gaussian

22 comments on Linearizing a Gaussian

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nero on January 11, 2006 - 11:56am

Since there is no good mechanistic explanation why the logistics curve is appropriate, modelling it with the gaussian is equally valid in my books. Both have the serious short coming that it is primarily curve fitting.
If someone could come up with a theory for why one or the other of these curves is followed by oil production I would be very interested.

This theory would then also be useful in explaining why the curve is symetrical and could be used to counter the arguments of the folks in the EIA who believe we will be able to increase production rates well past the midpoint.

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Luis de Sousa on January 11, 2006 - 12:16pm

Hi nero.

I don't have a full theory, but:

. Population growth follows a logistic curve;

. World oil production per capita is flat since 1982 (the year when the linearization method starts working).

I think there must be a strong link between the two.

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tom deplume on January 11, 2006 - 4:09pm

Are you saying that global baby production is proportional to global oil production. Or is the production of funerals inversly proportional to oil production? Or both?

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Luis de Sousa on January 12, 2006 - 3:57am

That kinf of ridiculous comments doesn't help. Please read previous post on population growth. If you have the time check on dieoff.org.

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22 comments on Linearizing a Gaussian

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