<Stuart on BBC Five Live The Oil Drum IEA Monthly Report for December>

135 comments on Tuesday Open Thread

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westexas on January 17, 2006 - 9:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
If 2005 was the peak, which I believe it was, we should be down by a net 4% of so from conventional sources, one year hence.  Let's assume that non-conventional kicks in 1% in new oil, so figure a net-net 3% decline--say a production rate of 82.5 mbpd in January, 2007.   How about if everyone makes their own estimate and we compare the estimates (guesses) a year from now?
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Glenn on January 17, 2006 - 9:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I say flat. 2006 will be the same as 2005 when you average the whole year. You may be right about January 2007, but I think monthly figures will jump around a bit.
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geewiz on January 17, 2006 - 10:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I was just listening to T.Boone Pickens on NPR, and he thinks 2006 will be a lackluster year too.
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LevinK on January 17, 2006 - 9:45pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I like the idea and I hope we'll remeber to get back to make this check-up.

My guess is 85 mbpd and price in the range of 80-85$. This of course absent major political disruptions. I don't expect we will get significant declines the first year after peak, previous experience of declines was in the presence of spare capacity ready to kick in and producers did not have enough incentitive to tweak the hell out of the fields.

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Oil CEO on January 18, 2006 - 12:40am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
This is an excellent idea. I have often thought about polling members on the future price of oil. I'm sure we'd do a better job than most of the Wall Street analysts.

As far as production goes - put me down for 86.25 mbpd next January. What are we going to use as our benchmark?

Also, I have a question that is somewhat related to this post. What do we mean by peak, exactly? Are we talking about simply a high-point on the historical worldwide production chart, or are we talking about peak-oil which I believe involves new discoveries replacing used ones?

I'm sure Deffeyes discusses this difference in Beyond oil, but I can't find my copy. Now I feel silly for asking, I should know this.

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135 comments on Tuesday Open Thread

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