Oil: I see the oil price lower at the end of 2006.  Maybe mid-50's but not higher.  When Rita hit the Gulf Coast the oil and gas prices did not move to new highs which is a sign that a top is in place.  70 dollar oil was shown to be the breaking point as Congress started talking about excess profits tax and investigations while doing nothing to downplay demand.  The Caspian pipelines are not being mentioned and that will bring substantial supply to the market next year along with some other projects which will be starting.  Growth in China and India will continue but the last part of oils move up was due to hedge funds not market based mechanisms.  Oil will correct for a couple of years before it starts it's next move up.  I am a long-term bull but in any bull market there are periods of rest and we are in one right now.

Gold: I want to believe Gold will be around $600 by year end but if blue chip stocks come back then gold will fall.  There is an inverse relationship at work there.  

US economy: Bernanke will not raise rates past May of this year if at all.  The first few months will be choppy as earnings get affected by the higher dollar (read between the lines on the earnings misses, a higher dollar will be blamed), Greenspan raises rates one final time, Bernanke testifies before Congress a couple of weeks later, and people focus on 4Q GDP along with 1Q economic statistics.

US markets: Down to start the year with a nice rally taking us through the election with a pullback in December.  Still choppy and you need to be in the right sectors.

Politics: Bush continues to come under fire as has every second term President with the exception of Eisenhower (?) Since Truman.  The Republicans will hold Congress and may pick up a couple of seats but the Democrats come away with victories over major Republican Congressional leaders (Santorum and a few others.)  The Democrats will be focused on winning the small but major races and not trying to retake the Congress and they use the victories to refocus their base and point the way to 2008.