I don't pay much attention to gold, but reading the commodity charts provides an interesting comparison and counterpoint to individual predictions. These constitute the consensus of traders in the markets.

December 2006 gold futures are at 541. So this would be the average expected price in a year (50% chance of higher or lower than this).

Looking at the options gives us an error band. Basically there is a 50% chance of it being in 475 - 580 range, with 25% chance of being above that and 25% being below that. The markets see only about a 12% chance of reaching your target price of 650. On the downside the markets see a little more risk than you do, about a 15% chance of going below 450 compared to your estimate of 10%. So overall you seem a bit more bullish than the markets.

The gold market is in much bigger supply deficit than most traders, even professionals, realize. The reason the price has not fully reflected this is that central back sales have supplemented mine supply, and derivative trading on the Comex have created artificial price discovery levels. This has been pointed out for years by people such as Bill Murphy (www.gata.org). Of all the commodities, gold and silver has the potential to spring an enormous surprise on the markets this year as demand increases (peak gold). I will join Halfin in makeing a public prediction, and hang my hat on gold clearing $1000.00 per ounce in 2006 on it's way higher.