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81 comments on Stuart's 2006 predictions
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81 comments on Stuart's 2006 predictions
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GAIA Host Collective
Democrats - tax and spend and regulate
Republicans - let the market work
Of course, in power neither would be able to implement a purist approach but I'd think they will follow these general approaches.
In this case, I'd argue that the Republican approach would be more effective in allowing the economy to adapt with the least pain. We have the experience of the Carter years to show that the Democratic approach certainly has its problems.
I will agree in advance that even the Republican approach will still require a reduction in standards of living and a lower economic growth rate. However, the central planning approach of the Democrats would surely lead to maladaptations and snafus at the system level. I think American voters understand that.
As for what the voters will think...Stoneleigh's right: they will support whoever is NOT in power. Whenever times are bad, they "throw the rascals out."
Based on what has happened in other collapsing societies, I expect taxing, spending, and regulating to increase no matter who is in power. The government has grown more under Bush and a GOP congress than it has since FDR; the GOP has not had real Libertarian leanings since Newt Gingrich was ousted.
People and corporations say they want less government, but it's not true. They want government programs, especially when times are bad. They want their jobs and markets protected. They want infrastructure built, to generate jobs and help business.
The Great Depression resulted in the New Deal, and I'd bet the farm something similar will happen again.
Of course, it won't work this time, but I seriously doubt any party that tries to "let the market work" will gain any traction when "the market" is letting children starve and little old ladies freeze to death.
For instance, I don't think Herbert Hoover deserved the reputation he ended up with for presiding over the Great Depression. He couldn't prevent it, but no one else would have been able to do so either. It was the inevitable aftermath of the roaring twenties. In the current case, the party in power has acted as the aggressor in a 'pre-emptive war', disregarded the Geneva Conventions and undermined the rule of law, among other dubious activities. They seem far more deserving of their fate than Hoover.
Neither party has a viable strategy to address the coming crisis. Both are completely out of touch with reality in my opinion. Both are likely to try and fail in turn, and both will probably disintegrate. My fear is that a vengeful electorate determined to blame the rest of the world for their continuing misfortunes (probably not realizing that others are sharing in those misfortunes) may eventually chose a complete maniac - some sort of populist strongman bent on maintaining American hegemony at any cost. It's hard to imagine a rational Powerdown scenario under those circumstances.