That is a very interesting observation, Halfin, makes me think it's worth looking at other countries and regions for when they have 'gone linear' and see what they might tell us about future Kuwaiti and Saudi production - particularly where they have blipped above the linear in a similar way. If I recollect correctly one of the big Texas areas (can't remember if it was east or west, someone here will) did likewise then declined more steeply.

If, when looking at other similar but more mature examples, we find that Stuart's linear fit is a reliable predictor of URR, perhaps we would be justified in using those URR numbers rather than the suspect OPEC numbers?

For now I would be cautious in reading too much into the Reuters report which is pretty damn vague. The detail will be important, what are the reserves by field, especially Burgan? There may be direct implications for some of Iraq's southern reserves.

If the Reuters report is accurate this news could be quite seismic. On the bright side it may create overwhelming pressure for a proper audit and assessment of mid east reserves. On the dark side, if Stuart's method of calculating URR for Saudi and Kuwait is an accurate predictor we are possibly past global half way in producing URR, since about 100 billion barrels have just evaporated.