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64 comments on China as the US, or vice versa?

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TJ on January 24, 2006 - 8:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
After reading it:

  1. Yes to a degree, because the Chinese affluent now are aiming for a U.S. style society, with cars and fast foods and all that other crap.

  2. I think Reich just meant that the guy with the biggest economy always wins.  I think he's an economist, after all.

Can China do it without using 40% of the world energy production?  Probably not.  However, they are graduating 400,000 engineers a year, so it appears that they're going to make a run at it.  If there's any long-shot cheap energy scheme to be developed to save the world, I'd bet on China and not the U.S. at this point.
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Gets IT on January 24, 2006 - 9:32pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
1 billion little feet got them this far. Imagine what they can do now that they got 2 billion.  

http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/articles/Three_Gorges.html

Soon to be available at your nearest DVD rental, "The Tortise and the Hare Part II", powered by Hydroelectric R Us.

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Engineer-Poet on January 24, 2006 - 9:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I wouldn't bet on China.  It is up-and-coming, but it is also very centralized and deeply corrupt.  Those are the two things which frustrate innovation (elites are conservative, and the corrupt drain everything by demanding a cut), and it's far from obvious that the monster will be able to handle this.

They're trying some things, like building nuclear at a huge clip.  But unless they make their vehicle fleet electric (which they are, to some degree), this won't help.

The US is about to become the world leader in installations of wind power.  Don't count us out just yet.

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Gets IT on January 25, 2006 - 6:38am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
You can't mean like Halliburton... do you?

I never count you out.  I just want you to do what it is you do best.  I ONLY critisize the US so much, because I know they can do so much better than everyone else, if only they can "ever get it together"???  I liked the idea I saw yesterday (forgot who posted it) about converting all the closing auto plants into making solar panels.  Its time to leave building cars for India.  Get moving on wind, solar panels and ... cold fussion.. or something other than those SUVs.  Hell, at least make us a good ethanol engine and start selling us those and the corn mash to go with it.  Shouldn't be a problem for somebody that can send mail to Pluto.  Don't misinterpret my critical remarks as not being intended in a constructive manner (in some kind of obtuse form).  Sometimes you guys just gotta' get mad to get things in order.

CNN finally reported this morning (takes them awhile now to be sure their translations are accurate) that France will start working on "4th generation" nuclear power stations.  I think it was to counter the BBC disaster series last night that featured a very scarey, what really happened at Chernobyl.  Having seen both, this morning I'm .. shall we say, undecided... but still dreaming about cold fussion.

US wind power is a great idea.  I hope you make it on a per-capita basis too.  (Seriously)  Actually our local grid can probably be supplied with around 20-30% wind power now.  There is a big station @ about 100 klicks, another real large one about 150 away, and another 100 to the NE.  The Brits are really trying (finally) to get into wind in a big way (they got so much of it, heh? ...just kidding), but NIMBY and NIMSV (Sea View) opposition is horrific.  Germany is full of props, Holland... they're building them out in the ocean (where else they gonna' put them?) The new ones are not as quaint as the old fashioned ones though.  The only bad thing about wind power around here is... guess when my power trips?.. ya .. WHEN the wind blows.  Maybe çause when it blows, it gets so hard that they have to feather the blades and switch to conventional.  Last month we had about 4 days of constant 60 mph winds, gusts to 90.  Started again yesterday.  I finally got tired of dealing with the trips and went out and bought a UPS for the workstations.  Should have done it a long time ago.  Much happier now.  Maybe they need to start making 2 stage windmills or something.

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Engineer-Poet on January 25, 2006 - 1:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I ONLY critisize the US so much, because I know they can do so much better than everyone else
And from here, it looks like you're just being anti-American.  You might want to balance it a little; if you pick on everyone who's slacking, you come off  as hard on slackers instead.
I liked the idea I saw yesterday (forgot who posted it) about converting all the closing auto plants into making solar panels.
Unfortunately, they are probably the wrong size and arrangement to do that well.
Hell, at least make us a good ethanol engine and start selling us those and the corn mash to go with it.
Ain't gonna happen, because ethanol is a boondoggle.  The entire 2004 US maize crop was 11.8 billion bushels.  At 2.66 gal/bu the whole crop would make ~31 billion gallons of ethanol.  The US consumed about 139 billion gallons of gasoline in 2004.

Iogen has a process that they say yields 87 gallons/ton of biomass.  If we can get a billion tons, that's 87 billion gallons.  Add that to the whole US corn crop and it's still not going to replace gasoline (let alone diesel, jet fuel and whatnot).  Dead-end boondoggle.

There are more efficient schemes out there, such as direct-carbon fuel cells.  Research is relatively cheap, so why don't you set some examples?  Get some lab-scale and pilot plants out there, and license the technology on attractive terms.  If you think the US isn't pursing some worthwhile avenue, do it yourself!

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Gets IT on January 25, 2006 - 2:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I thought a poet would understand me better than that. I've got my priorities. Cold fussion, right after 4th gen nukes. Maybe we can trade our technology if you let us store the junk in Yucca Mountain. My opinions are my own.
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Agric on January 24, 2006 - 9:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I listened and read; Reich's interview was not as silly as Kunstler portrayed it but I think Kunstler's analysis was the more correct.

There is a growing Chinese middle class but it is still proportionately very small in comparison with the US's. Energy supply constraints will almost certainly limit that growth.

But it should be remembered that China is adapted to a much lower per capita oil and NG use than is the US, and it imports a lower proportion of its oil than does the US, and considerably less in absolute terms. China is also very aware of its dependency on imported oil and is doing quite a lot to install nuclear and sustainable electricity generation. It has a pretty effective public transport infrastructure and continues to develop that. As oil becomes more expensive and scarce China will be much less impacted than the US.

I think Kunstler is correct in saying that the US will become relatively impoverished and meet China on the way down rather than as a result of China's wealth increasing to US levels. Although current rates of growth would indicate China overtaking the US in terms of GDP within 20 to 25 years, I think Kunstler is more likely to be right in saying it will happen in about 10 years.

Conflict? Who can tell. I could imagine China initiating conflict at an appropriate time for them, I can also imagine the US doing likewise as its economic and global policeman empire ends. The Chinese will probably rely on economic 'warfare' to weaken the US more rapidly that otherwise would be the case, perhaps it depends on how the US reacts to that. The Chinese have been successfully building cooperation with many countries, the US has been successfully alienating many of its erstwhile allies. One could foresee a time when the US is somewhat isolated diplomatically, how would the US react?

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Gets IT on January 25, 2006 - 6:43am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
As I understand it, Asians do not overly distinguish any difference between economic and military warfare.  Both are recognized strategies for ultimately defeating one's opposition.
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Leanan on January 24, 2006 - 11:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
China is looking more and more like the U.S. all the time.  I was there a few years ago, and was bemused to find that Beihai Park, "the most beautiful place in the world," the garden that some believe is the original Xanadu - had a Kentucky Fried Chicken right in the middle of it.  I've heard they've since moved it outside the park, but jeez.

I do think China's educational system is an advantage.  They value education, especially science and technology.  Everyone learns calculus in China, while here many kids don't even make it to algebra.  And they don't have our religious issues when it comes to evolution, cloning, stem cell research, etc.  I think the next technological revolution will be in genetic engineering, and they may have a huge advantage.  

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64 comments on China as the US, or vice versa?

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