The Oil Drum | China as the US, or vice versa?

64 comments on China as the US, or vice versa?

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Gets IT on January 24, 2006 - 9:21pm

Im afraid I must tell you that Russia-China-Iran power play is well in progress. That is precisely why the US base in Uzbekistan was vacated last year. China is building a marine terminal in Sudan, has made long term contracts with Venezuela, has bought PetroKazakistan (old Hurricane Oil Co. (exCanadian Co.) and will actively seek any and all accquisitions in the Caspian it figures it can get a finger into. Personally I feel that Terjikistan is a lock up sooner or later and the Georgian and Azerbaijani governments will cave in shortly afterwards. The US is obviously severely overextended and was unable to do anything more than wave a quick bye-bye with the one hand that is still not tied down as they moved the base to .. Romania, i think.

President Evo Morales (Bolivia's new president) has already mentioned he FAVORS selling Bolivia's gas to China. He doesn't like US meddling and the strings that come with foreign aid. To paraphrase, "What could be better than to sell a state's resources to another state?" Many prehistoric indian communities in South America were actually communistic and, as you can tell, he appears ready to renew old traditions. Chavez attended his inaguration and he has already met Fidel. At this point I'm sure they are already thinking about how Bolivia (with Chinese assistance) can negotiate a route through Chile and build a pipeline to a new LNG terminal.

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Jack Greene on January 25, 2006 - 1:04am

Gets It,

Actually I doubt it would be Chile. Bolivia has never forgiven Chile for taking her seacoast in the Pacific War of 1979-1883. The new Govt. in Chile would have to give a seaport to Bolivia, so I suspect Peru is a better candidate though a more costly route.

As to the Azerbaijani government, they like the USA "Caspian Guard" and they stand to regain their people currently in Iran. There are more Azers in Iran than in their own country!

As to the Uzbecks, I suspect that has more to do with their corrupt dictator. I think the smell got too bad and we got an airfield in the next country over, closer to China.

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Gets IT on January 25, 2006 - 5:53am

When the winds of change blow, some people build walls and others build windmills - Chinese proverb. Well .. there is also a new president in Chile.

I've lifted a few paragraphs from that article that only support my view, 'cause I couldn't find any that agree with yours. Read the whole @ http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=426&language_id=1

Bachelet also distanced herself from Washington by pledging to cultivate strong relations with all South American governments, including the left administrations of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and Evo Morales in Bolivia. Bachelet's refusal to join what she called a hemispheric "cold war" is based less on ideological sympathies than on Chile's reliance on regional energy supplies, particularly Bolivian gas.

Bachelet will be pressured by Morales, who has threatened to seek international arbitration of the sea-access issue and has insisted that La Paz will not accept a "qualified marina," to make further concessions. Caught between the possibility that Bolivia will staunch the flow of gas if progress is not made on sea access and the prospect of a nationalist backlash if she makes concessions, Bachelet will have her diplomatic skills tested.

Bachelet's victory will bring Santiago closer to integration with the emerging South American power center than it would have been had Pinera won the run-off. He had promised to continue Chile's full support of the F.T.A.A. and had expressed distrust of the left populism espoused by Chavez and Morales. Bachelet had warned in her campaign that a Pinera administration would isolate Chile from its neighbors.

Uzbeckistan and Azerbaijan governments do not have overwhelming support of their people. AKA "Back to the Future" ... can you remember USA support of the "Shah of Iran days"? or Viet Nam or <need a list?>

As for Azerbaijan see "Azerbaijan oil: a mixed blessing" Christian Science Monitor
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1230/p06s01-wosc.html
"Now, who's in bed with whom?"

The Uzbeki situation is no better and even more complicated. (What you smelled is known as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. http://www.newsdaily.com/TopNews/UPI-1-20051028-04504000-bc-russia-china.xml )
BBC Struggle for influence in Central Asia
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4467736.stm

Western view (see BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4555619.stm)

"But the West has trodden carefully, given Uzbekistan's role in supporting the war in Afghanistan and the country's resources of natural gas."

Note how "trodden carefully" really means,

"If enough pressure can be put on Mr Karimov to allow reform and opposition, then it is possible that his whole repressive structure will crash down."

It was the USA "deals" with the corrupt gov that got the base located there in the first place and now; Didn't work; typical response; time to destabilize the government. That did work.

Afterwards, citizen resistance to government corruption, gov forces killed <about, true number unknown> 850 citizens. Just the kind of government the USA likes to sack in with, no? Sound familiar? Tisk..Tisk. If you know your opponent will open with Q:Q1->K8 every time, its not a difficult game to get the hang of.

Wanna' talk Georgia?

I find the politics of (even a preceived) Peak Oil far more interesting than continually asking, "Daddy! Are we there yet?" Politically, that point was 2003. Economically? Probably starting today. And finally, whether China builds a pipeline from Bolivia to Peru ...or Chile, matters little to the final outcome of my hypothetical scenario. Welcome back... to the future.

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Jack Greene on January 27, 2006 - 1:20am

Gets IT,

You make some very good points. I would say that no matter what side of the political spectrum you are on that it is hard to give up a part of your nation to another after it has been Chilean for 125 years+. Maybe they could have a jointly run town on the coast (Antofagasta?).

It looks like it is coming to a head in the Middle East and there will be some changes soon. We will see how it plays out.

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Gets IT on January 28, 2006 - 7:51am

I hope it won't require that land titles actually change hands. Palestine has certainly proven (as have other areas) that problems resulting from "political" solutions to land ownership can get very ugly. Hopefully, sufficient advantages for both countries can be found to justify the creation of a joint operating arrangement for something like a dedicated and utility corridor and a relatively small amount of land for construction of a marine terminal. I suppose there would always be "security" concerns for Bolivia that might make those kind of arrangements difficult over the long term, but an operation agreement is something that would make negotiation of any disagreement more probable, if it were to come to pass, whereas land ownership issues have the capacity to quickly develop into one of national pride and consequent use of military force. Especially since the geometry of any territory involved would more than likely be difficult for Bolivia to defend anyway. I think there must be more and more mutually beneficial energy related agreements that will be made amongst the (presently) "lesser powers" in the world. By that, I mean all those guys that don't have the history or capability of "stepping on someones toes" to get them to give in, or those that realize that, if they do try it, it usually is counterproductive in the long term. Taming the toe-breaking habit seems harder than quitting smoking.

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64 comments on China as the US, or vice versa?

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