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223 comments on Hubbert Linearization Analysis of the Top Three Net Oil Exporters
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I saw the Enron documentary yesterday. It's a Ten
by the way. See it if you can.
Anyway the movie flashes the book Selfish Genes as a book Skilling runs his life by.
From the book or like minded authors-
We humans are blissfully unaware that we are driven to behave in ways that maximize inclusive fitness. Because of the advantages of unawareness of our own deceptive tactics and of our suspicion, I suggest that innate tendencies made us "embarrassingly stupid" as far as conscious awareness of these facts is concerned.
Evolutionary theory predicts the inherent selfishness of the individual. Therefore, we would not expect communication to develop as a means of informing others of the truth, if such truth gives the recipient an advantage at the expense of the sender. Cronk (1991) suggests to "follow the example of animal behavior studies in seeing communication more as a means to manipulate others than as a means to inform them". In other words, most communication serves for the purpose of social influence, defined as "change in one person's beliefs, attitudes, behavior, or emotions brought about by some other person or persons" (Raven, 1983, p. 8).
This demonstrates that deceit as an influence strategy is neither new nor a human invention. Second, it is likely that humans employ strategies as low as level two (body language signals of strength or submission) or maybe even level one (immature and baby-like facial features in an adult).
In summary, we should expect a good strategists to strive to maintain an image of being a truthful person. He or she should be prepared to deceive whenever it confers a sizable advantage versus a much smaller risk.
It's now obvious that the powers that be got away with the Enron model. Lay and Skilling are big, but they ain't
Chase Morgan or CSFB.
The US has absolutely no intention of slowing "growth"
(the same def as Enron's-whatever we say it is).
We will continue until stopped. By PO, Climate Change, or nuking Iran.
For example: I recently listened to a debate between a Peak Oiler and an Abundant Oiler from an Art Bell radio show from about a month ago. My wife said that she thought the Abundant Oiler won the debate, and I have to say that most unknowledgeable people would probably feel the same. The Abundant Oiler was lying up a storm, but it was obvious that he was used to this and he had practiced staying calm and beating his message to death. Also, his message induced a very warm, feel-good emotional state of long-term economic stability.
The Peak Oiler had the real data, but I could see how he could easily confuse the average non-technical person. Also, his voice got very shrill as he slowly freaked out at how many lies the Abundant Oiler was making. The tone of his voice and his message induced a state of confusion, insecurity, and irritation.
It was an interesting case of how easily a person ruthless enough to lie like a dog, can beat an honest technical person for the hearts of the average person. In my Neuro Linguistic Programming classes, they used to say that people aren't swayed by reasons, but by their emotional state.
On the other hand, maybe this is a lost cause, and we destined for the hard landing later, instead of the softer landing now. But, I would like to hope that we could do something...like convincing the average person of the reality of PO.