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223 comments on Hubbert Linearization Analysis of the Top Three Net Oil Exporters

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Halfin on January 27, 2006 - 7:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Come on, westexas, you are claiming that Russia has ultimately recoverable reserves of only 18 Gb, according to your chart? Yet Dave's expert, who is working with ASPO and sounds very credible, says it has proven reserves of over 80 Gb, with considerably more probable reserves. These figures don't add up.

Besides, it's clear at a glance that the Hubbert linearization is no good for Russia:

Production has moved well above the logistic fit and continues to climb. If I fit a line to this last portion I get that Russia has, let's see... looks like an infinite quantity of oil to me. Boy, you sure can learn a lot by fitting lines to charts, can't you?

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Sam Foucher on January 27, 2006 - 10:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
As Prof. Goose said, the curve fitting for Russia is a nasty fit and a mixture of logistic curves should be used instead.
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223 comments on Hubbert Linearization Analysis of the Top Three Net Oil Exporters

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