"Best" regional climate models are a good starting point, but I want to go beyond them to a broad and deep consideration of political, military, diplomatic, cultural and historical factors.

For example, I am guessing that Iceland will be a huge winner in large part because of the following: its exceedingly literate and well-educated population; its advantages in terms of geothermal and hydroelectric power; the fact that there is a lot of ocean around it that makes it hard to attack; the probability that there will continue to be a great many fish in the sea regardless of what happens, so long as liquid water remains in the Atlantic; its 1,000 year history of democracy; its survival during past hard times; its genetic advantages insofar as that 1,000 years ago it was an exceedingly violent society, and much of the DNA that was violence prone probably got eliminated; the fact that all Icelanders are related to one another and know their geneologies, often going back hundreds of years. In other words, they are all cousins of one another and worry about finding a cousin distant enough to marry so as to avoid the hazards of excessive inbreeding.