Our basic difference here is that I am talking in terms of a much longer, almost geologic timeframe, while I think you are talking within the timeframe of one or two generations.  Humans need to move past this short-term orientation once and for all.

In the short term we're all dead.

Every pop forecast gaussian curve puts humanity at less than a billion by 2100.

Back up via Game theory along the Gaussian and 40
years from now we have maybe 3 B.

Backup 70 years and pop is down by a billion or maybe stabilized at current levels.

Just stabilization means 325,000 humans must be
removed over and above the current rate of dieoff.

You're talking major human relocation and readjustment.

Meanwhile today-
By Paul Craig Roberts

01/29/06 "ICH" -- -- Two recent polls, a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll and a New York Times/CBS News poll, indicate why Bush is getting away with impeachable offenses. Half of the US population is incapable of acquiring, processing and understanding information.

America has become a rogue nation, flying blind, guided only by ignorance and hubris. A terrible catastrophe awaits.

Finally "fat tail"s (think inverted Gaussians at asymptote)
are prime breeding grounds for Self Organizing Criticality.  Think sand piles and which falling grain of sand will cause the certain avalanche.

We have not seen the greatest event to occur in our lifetimes.

I'm curious about your statement "Every pop forecast gaussian curve puts humanity at less than a billion by 2100."

But I feel a need to say that 'short term' to 'medium term' should be considered as less than 5 years in current human society, probably related to our political cycles. Our eyes need to see a generation and more ahead, seems we have lost that ability lately.

My best guess at global population 25 years hence is 3 billion, it could be a bit more, it could be a lot less. If we made a significant rational shift it could be a sustainable 5 billion, but that is almost certainly beyond the bounds of rational probability.

Yes, the US is the major 'rogue nation'. "Half of the US population is incapable of acquiring, processing and understanding information." now that is another example of blind optimism, lol.

"relocation and adjustment"? More optimism. Very many are going to die.

True, the coming events will probably be more seismic than any ever experienced by humankind, the global wars of the 20th century will seem trivial.

"