In his book, Simmons talks about technology and field production. Giving many examples, he shows that when tertiary pressure recovery systems such as at Brent, Cantarell, Ekofisk, etc  begin, you can get a very dramatc increase in production, but that this will peak in maybe 3 - 5 years, 8-9 at most, then be followed by rapid decline. I understand, but can't prove, that the real Russion boost in production came from working over old fields with new technology, starting around 1999 or 2000 and continuing on. From this, you would predict rapid increases over the next few years, just as we have seen, but on schedule, around now, the efforts would show signs of running down, with declines right about now. The pattern as observed is exactly what you would predict from this scenario. Now it remains to be seen if the predicted decline would occur, or if new fields make up for the loss.

That was pretty much my conclusion.  I think that, at a minimum, we are going to start seeing double digit declines very soon--probably next year. What has frankly amazed me is the level of denial on the subject of Russian oil production--on a Peak Oil website of all places.  

I'm certainly not comparing myself to a genius like Hubbert, but I got a small taste of what it must have been like for him to challenge the conventional wisdom.  

I think that we are facing a clear and immediate danger, because of a lack of net export capacity.  BTW, if you missed it the Russian oil companies have announced that they are cutting back oil exports because of heavy domestic demand this winter.