The Oil Drum

136 comments on Tuesday Open Thread (updated w/ pre-SOTU info)

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

DuncanK on January 31, 2006 - 10:11pm

Now, I am not a geologist or any other kind of oil expert. Like Stuart I am a software engineer. So the following may be complete crap.

Initially, my reaction to westexas Russian prediction was similar to Dave's. That is, I found it hard to believe, looking at Russian production recently that they could somehow drop.

But then I tried plotting the percentage change of Russian Federation Oil Production since 1985. Here's the graph:

Now if you extrapolate the last segment of this graph (2004-2005) over the next two years you get a 5% decrease in production this year and a 12% decrease in 2007.

Now that seems like a pretty drastic, but plausible, turnaround in Russian Oil Production.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

peakearl on February 1, 2006 - 1:21am

In his book, Simmons talks about technology and field production. Giving many examples, he shows that when tertiary pressure recovery systems such as at Brent, Cantarell, Ekofisk, etc begin, you can get a very dramatc increase in production, but that this will peak in maybe 3 - 5 years, 8-9 at most, then be followed by rapid decline. I understand, but can't prove, that the real Russion boost in production came from working over old fields with new technology, starting around 1999 or 2000 and continuing on. From this, you would predict rapid increases over the next few years, just as we have seen, but on schedule, around now, the efforts would show signs of running down, with declines right about now. The pattern as observed is exactly what you would predict from this scenario. Now it remains to be seen if the predicted decline would occur, or if new fields make up for the loss.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

westexas on February 1, 2006 - 8:24am

That was pretty much my conclusion. I think that, at a minimum, we are going to start seeing double digit declines very soon--probably next year. What has frankly amazed me is the level of denial on the subject of Russian oil production--on a Peak Oil website of all places.

I'm certainly not comparing myself to a genius like Hubbert, but I got a small taste of what it must have been like for him to challenge the conventional wisdom.

I think that we are facing a clear and immediate danger, because of a lack of net export capacity. BTW, if you missed it the Russian oil companies have announced that they are cutting back oil exports because of heavy domestic demand this winter.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

DuncanK on February 1, 2006 - 1:54pm

Yes, and hasn't some production been shut-in because of the cold weather? If they had a high water cut then that would most definitely be affected by very low temperatures.

That shut-in, if it lasts a reasonable length of time, will almost certainly cause their production to drop this year, unless, as Peakearl says, they make some new finds. Although, anything found this year isn't going to be in production for a few years yet.