88 comments on Four US Linearizations
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88 comments on Four US Linearizations
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GAIA Host Collective
BUT.....
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f39fa8e4-7e25-11da-8ef9-0000779e2340.html
I think this is the first time China has overtly expressed a desire to move away from the dollar. Please correct me if it isn't. The dollar is already moving lower - if this continues into the immediate future, it doesn't bode well for international trade.
My company is watching this closely, as dollar valuation plays heavily into our international exploration budgets.
And last week semiofficial sources started talking about increasing the percentage of gold in China's official monetary reserves. You can follow these sorts of things on the Kitco.com website, which is dedicated to information about investing in gold.
I bring this up to say: for several years the Chinese have accepted our essentially worthless dollars in order to keep their export-led growth going. They will keep doing that until they decide, that they won't. And when the markets wake up to that (before or after the fact, I can't say) everything will change. No one can say how it will look, but it won't be pretty. For some interesting (if economically heterodox) thinking on the subject, try this: http://www.business-in-asia.com/dollar_crisis.html.
The whole system seems to feed off itself, producing its own internal dynamic which is only loosely connected to reality. The inevitable result is swings of positive feedback at various degrees of trend, so to speak. There are those who see in this the application of fractals to market behaviour. Robert Prechter is the one I am most familiar with, but I also remember an article to that effect by Mandelbrot (I'll try to find the link). Its an intriguing concept which I follow out of interest, but am not intellectually wedded to. The psychological argument seems more compelling to me than the potential mathematical applications, but then my approach to life is generally more qualitative than quantitative.
Here's an excerpt from the interview Sunlight links to:
"Question 6: Also in the book you note that "over-investment causes excess capacity and excess capacity causes deflation." Could you explain to our readers exactly what deflation is, why it is to be feared and why you believe the threat of global deflation is real?
Answer: Inflation comes about when there is too much demand relative to supply. Deflation is caused when there is too much supply relative to demand--or, more precisely, purchasing power. When credit is abundant, companies borrow and expand industrial capacity and aggregate supply increases. However, the purchasing power of the public does not necessarily expand in line with supply. During periods of very rapid credit expansion as in the 1970s and `80s in Japan, in the Asia Crisis countries during the 1990s and in China during the last 15 years, supply grows much faster than the personal income of the public. When supply exceeds purchasing power, prices fall. That is why Japan and China are suffering from deflation now. The Asia Crisis countries avoided deflation by devaluing their currencies and exporting deflation abroad. For example, the devaluation of the South Korean Won after the Asia Crisis contributed to the downward pressure on global semiconductor and steel prices.
The US current account deficit is flooding the global economy with dollar liquidity. When the dollar earnings of the surplus nations are deposited into their domestic banking systems, those dollars, being exogenous to those banking system, act as high powered money and spark off an explosion of credit creation. Excessive credit creation permits over-investment, which, in turn, causes excess capacity and deflation. So long as the huge US current account deficits continue to flood the world with dollars, global deflationary pressures are very likely to continue to build, as reckless credit creation results in more industrial capacity than can be absorbed at the prevailing price level.
The reason that deflation is harmful is because it undermines corporate profitability and, thereby, leads to rising unemployment and falling purchasing power."
Demand is not what we would all like to use, it's what we can afford to use, and demand will plummet with havoc in the global financial system. Economic activity would be further constrained by the very high real interest rates that result when inflation is negative, further depressing demand (a positive feedback loop). Nominal interest rates cannot go lower than zero, but zero is not low enough when the real rate of interest is the nominal rate minus negative inflation. Japan has had this problem for many years.
I think Richard Duncan's work helps to bridge the gap between the economics camp and the energy camp in order to build a realistic scenario for the future. Whether we will have inflation or deflation is a crucial distinction when it comes to planning for the future as the strategies one would employ are very different. Personally, I am convinced that we are headed towards an extremely severe global economic depression. This topic of discussion, and Sunlight's link to the Richard Duncan interview, would make a good separate thread.
...he did indeed.