OFF TOPIC

BUT.....

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f39fa8e4-7e25-11da-8ef9-0000779e2340.html

I think this is the first time China has overtly expressed a desire to move away from the dollar. Please correct me if it isn't. The dollar is already moving lower - if this continues into the immediate future, it doesn't bode well for international trade.

My company is watching this closely, as dollar valuation plays heavily into our international exploration budgets.

GeoPoet, the Chinese have been sending up some less official sounding trial balloons for at least several weeks, but you're right, this is a new one on me and that is why, for the first time in my life, I invested in options on gold futures when the price of gold dipped in December. In December economist Hu Yongding, who sits on the monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China, was quoted in the English-Language Hong Kong Standard, saying this very thing. In the same article, however, a more senior source "corrected" Mr. Hu. Was this "damage control," or was it a way of distancing a trial balloon from "official policy?" I'm no Sinologist, I have no opinion on that one.

And last week semiofficial sources started talking about increasing the percentage of gold in China's official monetary reserves. You can follow these sorts of things on the Kitco.com website, which is dedicated to information about investing in gold.

I wouldn't say this was off topic Geopoet. Such a shift by the Chinese could initiate the unwinding of huge global financial imbalances, which would have enormous implications for energy, particularly for the US. If the dollar were to lose its status as global reserve currency, oil would become much more expensive for Americans who have been insulated from currency risk as an aspect of oil price volatility. The US would be unlikely to take it lying down, which would usher in a very dangerous era indeed. Perhaps China has been speaking to Iran and Russia about pricing oil in euros?
This unwinding is all too inevitable, I am afraid. Financial systems are stable for long periods -- and suddenly they are not. On any given day, the markets focus on one number -- the employment report, what the Fed did, GNP, Microsoft earnings -- and there is not always a predictable reason why number x is the number du jour. Commentators will talk as if they know why the market focussed on the number that turned out to be the number du jour, but, trust me, we are all cluelesss. If you are a trader like me, you just go with the flow.

I bring this up to say: for several years the Chinese have accepted our essentially worthless dollars in order to keep their export-led growth going. They will keep doing that until they decide, that they won't. And when the markets wake up to that (before or after the fact, I can't say) everything will change. No one can say how it will look, but it won't be pretty. For some interesting (if economically heterodox) thinking on the subject, try this: http://www.business-in-asia.com/dollar_crisis.html.

I think of the number du jour as a post hoc rationalization for a gut feelings, in other words window dressing for unconscious herding behaviour. Most trading seems to have little to do with rational choices based on real information, and a lot to do with instinctive emotional responses to the evidence of others' actions.

The whole system seems to feed off itself, producing its own internal dynamic which is only loosely connected to reality. The inevitable result is swings of positive feedback at various degrees of trend, so to speak. There are those who see in this the application of fractals to market behaviour. Robert Prechter is the one I am most familiar with, but I also remember an article to that effect by Mandelbrot (I'll try to find the link). Its an intriguing concept which I follow out of interest, but am not intellectually wedded to. The psychological argument seems more compelling to me than the potential mathematical applications, but then my approach to life is generally more qualitative than quantitative.

Here's a link to the article I remember by Mandelbrot: http://www.elliottwave.com/education/SciAmerican/Mandelbrot_Article2.htm
Sunlight, I just read through your link (which needs to have an extra period removed from the end of the URL in order to work). Note to the-powers-that-be at TOD - this should be a separate topic as it addresses the important aspects of inflation versus deflation and global financial imbalance. The interviewee is Richard Duncan (not the same Richard Duncan associated with the Olduvai theory), whose book The Dollar Crisis I would recommend very highly.

Here's an excerpt from the interview Sunlight links to:

"Question 6:  Also in the book you note that "over-investment causes excess capacity and excess capacity causes deflation."  Could you explain to our readers exactly what deflation is, why it is to be feared and why you believe the threat of global deflation is real?

Answer:   Inflation comes about when there is too much demand relative to supply.  Deflation is caused when there is too much supply relative to demand--or, more precisely, purchasing power.  When credit is abundant, companies borrow and expand industrial capacity and aggregate supply increases.  However, the purchasing power of the public does not necessarily expand in line with supply.  During periods of very rapid credit expansion as in the 1970s and `80s in Japan, in the Asia Crisis countries during the 1990s and in China during the last 15 years, supply grows much faster than the personal income of the public.  When supply exceeds purchasing power, prices fall.  That is why Japan and China are suffering from deflation now.  The Asia Crisis countries avoided deflation by devaluing their currencies and exporting deflation abroad.  For example, the devaluation of the South Korean Won after the Asia Crisis contributed to the downward pressure on global semiconductor and steel prices.

The US current account deficit is flooding the global economy with dollar liquidity.  When the dollar earnings of the surplus nations are deposited into their domestic banking systems, those dollars, being exogenous to those banking system, act as high powered money and spark off an explosion of credit creation.  Excessive credit creation permits over-investment, which, in turn, causes excess capacity and deflation.  So long as the huge US current account deficits continue to flood the world with dollars, global deflationary pressures are very likely to continue to build, as reckless credit creation results in more industrial capacity than can be absorbed at the prevailing price level.

The reason that deflation is harmful is because it undermines corporate profitability and, thereby, leads to rising unemployment and falling purchasing power."

agreed. Very good link .I would see this discussed.Thanks.
I am in the process of preparing a presentation on this material to a discussion group of my fellow traders. I would also be happy to make it available to TOD if you think that would be helpful. It might take a bit longer. As a reader of "The Dollar Crisis" you, however, will know most of what I have to say on the topic.
Personally, I think it would be very helpful. We typically focus on supply here and voluntary or planned demand-side management, but I think this material helps to shed light on the nature of involuntary/unplanned demand reductions. The unwinding of these huge financial imbalances as the credit bubble implodes will have an enormous impact on purchasing power. If purchasing power falls off a cliff then demand, even for energy in cases where there is a structural dependency on it, falls, and price falls with it for the duration of the deflationary period.

Demand is not what we would all like to use, it's what we can afford to use, and demand will plummet with havoc in the global financial system. Economic activity would be further constrained by the very high real interest rates that result when inflation is negative, further depressing demand (a positive feedback loop). Nominal interest rates cannot go lower than zero, but zero is not low enough when the real rate of interest is the nominal rate minus negative inflation. Japan has had this problem for many years.

I think Richard Duncan's work helps to bridge the gap between the economics camp and the energy camp in order to build a realistic scenario for the future. Whether we will have inflation or deflation is a crucial distinction when it comes to planning for the future as the strategies one would employ are very different. Personally, I am convinced that we are headed towards an extremely severe global economic depression. This topic of discussion, and Sunlight's link to the Richard Duncan interview, would make a good separate thread.

absolutely.  please send it along to the editors address...
Thanks Prof G.
and I'll make an open thread...and put that in there in the first comment.
maybe off topic....but HOLY MOLY...i'm aware of the previous trial ballons, but now the cat is out of the bag. i was waiting for the chinese to start asserting ,what i'm sure they believe, is their "proper" politico-economic place in the world....and that time is now...they need commodities and they need oil to keep their feverish economy going, viz.
"It is a subtle but clear signal that they are interested in moving away from the US dollar into other currencies, and are interested in setting up some kind of strategic commodity fund, maybe just for oil, but maybe for other commodities," he said.

...he did indeed.