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29 comments on in case you're too lazy to read...or if you want to point someone to a good review...
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About four fifths of the way down the page they discuss a population bottle neck 70-80,000 years ago, based on miochondrial DNA evidence. It seems the human population may have numbered as few as 10,000 at that point. The time frame coincides with an erruption of the Sumatran supervolcano Toba 74,000 years ago, which would have had dramatic effects on the climate. That erruption was near the high end of the volcanic explosivity index, putting it at perhaps 10,000 times (or more) as intense as the erruption of Mount St Helens (if memory serves). For what it's worth, there's another supervolcano with similar explosive potential under Yellowstone Park. It seems to errupt about every 600,000 years, and the last erruption was 640,000 years ago. There are some things that make even peak oil look insignificant.
But, it's been up & up ever since, hey?
I wouldn't say it's been "up and up" ever since. It was basically flat - up and down - for a long time. With agriculture it started going up slowly, but didn't really start looking exponential until we started exploiting fossil fuels.
Nice graph. Year 1400 AD--The The Black Death: Bubonic Plague. Years 600 to 1000 AD--The Dark Ages.
But I'm glad you posted that. Why? Because it gives us OilDrummers a sense of history and the effects of geopolitical or natural shocks to the system.
It's all well and good for Stuart and others to do their modelling (I'm a big supporter of that)--but reality inevitably involves these kinds of events.
So, really, thanks for you post.
http://www.unc.edu/~nielsen/soci011/hs13/hs13001.gif
I think it's clear that human ingenuity alone is not enough to overcome resource limits. Cheap energy from petroleum and the technology we've made from it has sheltered us from the dieoffs we used to suffer regularly in the past.
The Black Death may not be entirely unrelated to population. Bubonic plague existed for millennia in Europe and Asia; why did it suddenly become a pandemic? Some researchers believe that it was because rapid population growth left people vulnerable. Many were suffering malnutrition, weakening their immune systems. Others even argue that the Black Death was several different diseases, all spreading because the population was vulnerable due to insufficient food.
This article explicitly links the Black Death with the Great Famine that preceded it. It also argues that the shortage of firewood caused by the growing population created hygiene problems; heating water for baths in winter became a luxury only the wealthy could afford.
I suspect that many of the seemingly random "events" we see as separate from energy issues are not. War and disease are much more likely when there's too many people and not enough resources.
when the graph image seems cut off on the right, right click on the image and select View Image
Nice graph
Trees don't grow to the sky
Catastrophe-David Keyes
They write on volcano and comet disasters, from the point of view of sulfate levels in ice and ring width in trees. The point being that bad weather breaks civilisations.