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But, it's been up & up ever since, hey?
I wouldn't say it's been "up and up" ever since. It was basically flat - up and down - for a long time. With agriculture it started going up slowly, but didn't really start looking exponential until we started exploiting fossil fuels.
Nice graph. Year 1400 AD--The The Black Death: Bubonic Plague. Years 600 to 1000 AD--The Dark Ages.
But I'm glad you posted that. Why? Because it gives us OilDrummers a sense of history and the effects of geopolitical or natural shocks to the system.
It's all well and good for Stuart and others to do their modelling (I'm a big supporter of that)--but reality inevitably involves these kinds of events.
So, really, thanks for you post.
http://www.unc.edu/~nielsen/soci011/hs13/hs13001.gif
I think it's clear that human ingenuity alone is not enough to overcome resource limits. Cheap energy from petroleum and the technology we've made from it has sheltered us from the dieoffs we used to suffer regularly in the past.
The Black Death may not be entirely unrelated to population. Bubonic plague existed for millennia in Europe and Asia; why did it suddenly become a pandemic? Some researchers believe that it was because rapid population growth left people vulnerable. Many were suffering malnutrition, weakening their immune systems. Others even argue that the Black Death was several different diseases, all spreading because the population was vulnerable due to insufficient food.
This article explicitly links the Black Death with the Great Famine that preceded it. It also argues that the shortage of firewood caused by the growing population created hygiene problems; heating water for baths in winter became a luxury only the wealthy could afford.
I suspect that many of the seemingly random "events" we see as separate from energy issues are not. War and disease are much more likely when there's too many people and not enough resources.
when the graph image seems cut off on the right, right click on the image and select View Image
Nice graph
Trees don't grow to the sky
Catastrophe-David Keyes
They write on volcano and comet disasters, from the point of view of sulfate levels in ice and ring width in trees. The point being that bad weather breaks civilisations.