<Open Thread and News Drop The Oil Drum Hard Look at Gov. Pataki Ethanol Proposal>

40 comments on The European situation is not really stable

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version

Agric on January 8, 2006 - 10:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yes, I was amused by the Bulgarian development, too. Will be interesting to see how it develops and what that tells us of the meaning of 'law' in Russia etc, still a bit of a vague concept I would say. I doubt it has anything to do with recent steps in bulgaria joining the EU ;)

On the wider topic (European situation) I think this is positive. I have no doubt that EU countries and the Commission will now be looking to security of energy supplies, and that that will lead them to some pretty inevitable conclusions. They will, relatively soon in their context, say that PO is here or nearing and begin to formulate structures and policies to deal with it. Events may overtake those ponderous processes, however.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
geewiz on January 8, 2006 - 11:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Agric, i tend to think that the UK will be the first to stand up and say to the people: we have a problem.   Malcolm Wicks MP on 19Dec05 has made an Energy Review... of UK challenges, he also mentions that:

But things have changed since we set out our energy policies in 2003.

Our own gas output has declined faster than anticipated and we have moved to being a net gas importer - earlier than envisaged.

We will rely on gas imports for both heating and electricity supply. Significantly by 2020 we may be importing over 80% of our annual gas requirements ? last year it was around 10%. These are likely to be sourced from a variety of countries, most of them developing and OPEC countries although Norway will play a key role. Russia will be a substantial provider to the EU, including the UK.

It reads like any companys annual report, (without the finances) but says: basically we have some good news, and oh yeah, we have some bad news.

source right here

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Twilight on January 9, 2006 - 3:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Your comments on the rule of law in Russia are probably appropriate for laws within the country, but in terms of foreign policy there are no laws.  There is only a hegemonic system created by the western powers, and the pretense of law.  The Russians problem is mostly that they lack subtlety, but then the US can hardly be called subtle of late either.  I think the EU is the only ones clinging to that "quaint" notion.  The resource is in Russian territory, and they can use it as they see fit, and we have to deal with it because we don't have that much leverage over them.  It's something we're not used to, but we're going to be learning a lot more about it.  We can only take the energy of those who can be overcome by our militaries, and even then we can be stopped if they align with one of the other powers.  

So the world will be carved up into competing empires of large economic & military powers associated with major energy producers.  And it is not clear the US and/or the EU will be the big dogs.  Russia may in fact be in an excellent position.  It may put a lot of strain on the EU, as different members might make different choices about who they align with.  

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Agric on January 14, 2006 - 10:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I guess you are saying: welcome back the 'Great Game', Twilight, though perhaps the truth is it never ended, was just taking a time out.

The stacks held by the players have changed since we last looked, the US stack looks lower, Russian and Chinese higher. The US player has been gambling a bit much lately while the others have been more cautious, biding time, accumulating.

Sometimes weakness is strength: the EU is no threat, it would not (of its own volition) attack foreign nations, so is worth preserving as a market.

For Russia and China there is one clear enemy: USA. One might think they could be mutual enemies but they know they can achieve mutually acceptable compromises while they feel that the US will always try to exploit and subjugate them, as it has all others these last 100 years.

Ultimately the US empire of exploitation, manipulation and economic dominance will fall. For certain within 20 years, probably within 10 years. The question is how it falls, with grace or in a bloody thrash.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

40 comments on The European situation is not really stable

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

| Show without comments | PDF version