40 comments on The European situation is not really stable
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GAIA Host Collective
It seems to me, that as time marches on, the closer you live to a natgas souce, the better off you will be. This spiderweb of natgas tubes will inevitably shrink as natgas volumes and pressures drop.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
said that liquification consumed 25-30% of the original gas volume, tanker shipping consumed less than 1% and regasification consumed 0-10% (depending on whether free waste heat was available at the receiving end). The commenter did not provide any references, however.
I would have to believe that even very long natural gas pipeline transport would never come close to consuming the kind of energy needed for the LNG supply train.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/global/worldlng.html
LNG is Natural Gas compressed to a ratio of about 600-to-1 volume-wise, for transporting. This second EIA page says," Shipping accounts for 10 to 30 percent of the delivered value of LNG (depending on the distance from the reserves to the market)." I'm not sure if the liquification/gasification process on either end is include in that. I would assume it is as part of the larger %30 number.
It is not hard to figure these things out however. an hour on google will provide you with a wealth of information about the different components of the LNG delivery system.
You cannot of course burn LNG, you need to first regasify it into regular NG. Once it is in gaseous form it is the same commodity on the consumer end and it is this consumer price that matters. You will see slightly different prices for LNG vs NG at the wholesale level in different parts of the world, but this probably has more to do with the fact that the two are selling in two different markets - one buyer may not have the ability to regasify the product and therefore would not be in the market for LNG.
It looks like NG has spiked to a worldwide average of about $9-10 per 1000 cubic feet. This is still, in my estimation, low. NG follows the basic course of crude oil prices on a BTU-basis. As we see oil move to $100+, $20 for NG is going to be the norm.
As this price goes up, producers will do what it takes to move the product to market.
At higher prices the costs of shipping/deliver/processing as e percentage of the total cost obviously goes down.
That Russian-German pipeline that they just broke ground on will be moving 1% of the world's daily usage. Fairly significant. The UK has only two options - oil or gas. There is no hydrogen economy yet - as far as I can see. So if they don't want to import more oil, I think they'll be moving some of that gas from Germany to Holland to the UK.
I doubt UK will get any gas from Russia via pipeline and may get some via LNG.
The EROEI concept does not apply here in piping natural gas. That's because the pipeline can be propeled by utilizing some of the natural gas in the pipe. Therefore, not all of the gas reaches its destiny, only some does. This reduces the total cost of transporting the gas, and hence it is still worthwhile as long as the price is worth it.
For example, assuming transporting one million cubic meter of gas from Russia to UK costs 9 million cubic meter of gas to propel it. It looks unworthy if you look at EROEI, but that is only the case when the Brits receive one million cubic meter of gas, and have to pay back 9 million cubic meter of gas to Russia as payment. Actually what happens is the Brits pay the Russia price for the one million cubic meter they receive, as well as for the 9 million cubic meter they did not receive, buth in Russian price. As long as the natural gas price in UK is 10 times above the Russian price, it is worth while.
A rough analogy could be made regarding the fact that a certain amount of fruits and vegetables spoil on their way to market, but we don't care about how much, because it's only the price at the user's end that's of interest to the user.
However, and this is a BIG however, when you are considering issues of required production and the projected life of fossil fuel reserves, the EROEI is of extreme importance.
If I have to put 5 units of energy into the production/distrubition 'black box' to make 4 units available at the point of use, that's one thing. But if I have to put 10 units of energy into the black box to make the same 4 units available at the point of use, that's something else again - something far less desirable from a depletion standpoint, regardless of what price is attached to that energy.
So, when we see gross production figures of say X million bpd of crude oil or Y million cubic ft of natural gas, we are missing a vital piece of information - and that is: what fraction of X and Y are actually being made available at the point of use?