Education and skill in general are really important as you say. Although the only jobs that are safe (won't go somewhere else) are those that require you to physically be here. Like surgeon, gardener or exotic dancer. Much of our software and tech design work and support is being sent to India and eventually China where they work hard (in school and after) and for a lot less. Point being that its not just 'lifting' and 'forging'. Learn to climb a ladder is good advice.
In today's world jobs move around and sometime people have to follow them. In the US some 40% of all engineers and scientists are Europeans and Asians. If you go to Singapore, Honkong, Shanghai, you can find growing communities of British, German and American expats. Soon you will find them in Beijing and Bangalore...
I agree... the only jobs that will definitely stay here are those which require physical presence. And the people doing them will be the only ones without any means to ever leave their communities. Everyone else in the future will be able to choose where they want to work... on snowy planes or in buzzing Asian cities or on tropical islands.
If I wanted to, I could go to Singapore tomorrow. Or Australia. Or back to Europe. All I have to do is to apply for a job in any of these places or to open a business of my own. Granted, not everyone has the desire to move and to live on foreign shores. But those who have, usually value the experience. And often they come back to home and bring what they have learned with them.
What I am trying to say is that a world open to everyone who has set their mind to exploring it (quite literally) is not a bad thing.
Ummm... you make it sound like more than a small percentage of the worlds population has the options you refer to, you don't really belive that do you?
You are probably asking the wrong person... my Dad is a professional musician and so we HAD to move around more than we wanted to. It was not by choice but by necessity.
And I would also think that among the tens of millions of Mexican immigrants in the US there are many who are homesick and who would rather like to live with their families rather than spend their lives on the run from one minimum wage job to the other or one farmer's field to the other.
I met a guy from the Philippines who works in the US to support his kids. He gets to see them once every year, at most. Do you think he is doing it because he has a choice? The man's heart brakes every time he talks about his kids and how he is afraid that his brother's family where they live is not treating them like their own. On the upside: his janitor's salary allows him to send his son to college to become a white collar worker... and the son will probably send his son to university to become a doctor or let his daughter be an attorney...
If you go to Singapore, you will see thousands of laborers from Malaysia work on construction sites...
I could go on. The short version is that people move to where the work is. Desperate people move further and endure more hardships than fat people with homes and social security checks. I don't mean that in a derogatory way, it is simply the result of the survival pressure that people are under. Hunger is a cruel mistress. When she talks, you listen.
I move to where I like because I can and because it is fun. I have made myself a home on three continents and maybe I will make that four by the time I retire... No, I do not think that the reasons I move for are typical. But I do think that moving is essential part of humanity. We were nomads and we can always be nomads if we have to.
One of the problems with moving to "where the jobs are" (when the jobs have moved to an area because of lower wages) is that you will have to take the lower wages yourself. While you can make a nice life on the wages in such areas (due to low cost of living), good luck if you want to go home again someday.
Of course, we're not talking about moving among First World nations where the populations all have comparable incomes. But then that's not where the jobs are being outsourced to anyway.
You can look at this as an equilibrium phenomenon on a constantly rising background slope. While wealth is being shared, the richest and most advanced nations keep getting richer and more advanced. They shed the industries that are not compatible with their average wealth any longer and these are being picked up by less wealthy nations that can support them. The now relatively small earnings of these industries make little of an effect on the richest of nation's GDPs but can greatly enhance that of the poor.
There is abolutely nothing wrong with this picture, unless your economic credo is that you can only profit if someone else starves. I think the world as a whole has reduced such 18th century thinking to rubble. We all profit from China and India taking over the industries that we can't run profitably any longer.
Infinite: We all profit. We are the world. We are the children. We are all in this together. The only difference between a billionaire in Manhattan (or Palm Beach) and a chronically underemployed 20 something in Cleveland or Buffalo is the size of the bank account. We are all one.
The difference between a billionaire anywhere and an unemployed 20 something in Cleveland or Buffalo is first of all smarts. If you take a person with the potential of a billionaire and let him or her start out unemployed, he or she will probably have a hundred bucks by end of day one. By end of the week they will have a bank account, a cell phone and three employees. They will recruit the smartest of the unemployed 20 somethings and make them work 24/7 for next to nothing... until they are billionaires, again...
Now, I take it from your post that you are probably not a billionaire...?
Infinite:It is relatively subtle, but I assume you are implying that your sycophant posturing makes it clear that you have been more financially successful than anyone who would dare to question such nonsense. Don't bet on it.
What do you mean by financially succesful? I would call myself lower middle class. I have (to have) a dayjob and I have to financially support my parents who have limited retirement income. I can assure you that I do not represent any of the people who have profited greatly from the president's tax cuts.
I also represent a growing fraction of the world's population that understands the necessity to move around. My point was that there are many reasons to be mobile. Being part of the jetset is the unlikeliest one, though. It is much more likely that either you are starving or that your level of education is needed somewhere else. In my case it is the latter. In the case of my parents it was the former. We did not make the world this way, we just adapted to it.
Jesus Christ you are on a high horse... I guess that makes two of us!
Infinite, I do see your points as being valueable, but I think you've read one too many Thomas Friedman articles on the wonders of cinnabons. I guess you have a positive outlook on "globalization", you seem to have a romantic vision of efficiency, profit and order for all... Whereas I see globalization simply as labor arbitrage and squeezing the last few bucks out of an industrial system that is bound to collapse (in any form, whether run by global capitalism or so called "marxist socialism".)
First off, sure, you have to be smart to be a billionaire (at least a self made one, if you look at the Forbe 400 list you will find that although many are self made, there are quite a few that inherited.) On the other hand, becoming filthy rich is way less a function of "smarts", than it is of hard work, taking advantage of every opportunity and, of course, greed. I would put way more stress on greed than "smarts"... In fact, I would bet that you could be a total fucktard and still become a billionaire simply by pure greed (of course, I'm not saying a greedy mentally deficient individual could achieve such a feat--there is obviously a nominal base of intelligence to make money). My point is simply that I think you're wrong to stress "smarts", since there are millions upon millions of people that are way more smart then the vast majority of billionaires. In fact, billionaires usually employ people that are far moer intelligent than them.
You misunderstood BrianT. Perhaps you need to get down from the saddle and actually discuss things as opposed to stating your opinions as facts from high atop hi-ho silver. My understanding of what BrianT was saying is that we are all on the same boat. We are all homo sapiens, we are all related and we all live on "spaceship earth". Our space ship may be easy to get around right now, and may have enough resources for everyone to plow around in military vechicles in urban environments, but eventually this free for all will end. Just because people have been crying wolf since whale oil, doesn't mean that resources are infinite and that prognosticators will forever be wrong. In case you didn't notice, this blog's focus is energy depletion and our "future".
BrianT's point was that once TSHTF billionaires and the unemployed will both have problems, albeit different ones. For instance, billionaires will be concerned with having even tighter security, contingents of body guards and militarized homes then they already do... They will be afraid of the masses of enraged Americans who were told by Reagan in the 80s that it was Morning in America... When people find out it is actually Dusk in America, the public will want to eat the upper class alive.
Perhaps you disagree with my perspective on this, since you obviously seem joyfully optimistic about our future (despite massive, never before experienced challenges for our species on the very near horizon...) To go down the list briefly with no depth:
spiraling wars in the middle east (already in progress)
global oil production depletion (no one knows--not a good thing)
global warming (again, no one knows--not a good thing)
overpopulation (approaching 7 billion--more people have been alive in the last 200 years than cumultively in all of human history)
mass extinction
ecological degradation (rainforests all around the world be burned and chopped down, coral reefs dying, etc.)
I could go on but you get the jist of it.
While you seem to enjoy doing the "hey look how stupid feckless unemployed 20 somethings are compared to our brilliant billionaires!" I would rather side with BrianT and simply agree that we are products of only two things... Our environments and genetic dispositions. (Not to mention millions of years of natural selection.)
"potential of a billionaire"?????
So I assume you are saying that essentially there is a billionaire gene? Or there must be a rearing technique to enhance the "billionaire potential"?
Those are rhetorical questions, because obviously both have to be true. In order to get a billionaire you need A) the disposition to become one B) the environmental know how to function in the world to impress people, network, makes deals, etc with all the other BS required. Plus, the obvious desire to do so...
Again, I'm just writing this to make it known to all that I agree with BrianT, and think your arrogance is now apparent to anyone to see.
BrianT tries to say we're all in this together and you go out and write that he must not be a billionaire and that billionaires are smart? Wow.
"Whereas I see globalization simply as labor arbitrage and squeezing the last few bucks out of an industrial system that is bound to collapse (in any form, whether run by global capitalism or so called "marxist socialism".)"
Labor arbitrage existed everywhere at all times. It is not limited to moving jobs across borders in the late 20th century. Labor intense industries always moved to where the cheapest labor was and they always created high concentrations of low earners. What seems misguided to me is that some people in these posts complained that they can't be the low earners. I always ask myself why someone who has reasonable chances to move up to the middle class would want to hang on to the bottom of the system kinds of jobs. The Chinese who are taking these will certainly encourage their children NOT to follow Mom and Dad to the factory but go to school, then college and become an engineer or better.
As for the collapse of the system... I have yet to see any signs of that. Capitalism is happily producing one record result after the other everywhere in the world. One can argue that some of it is ecologically not sustainable. I would agree with that, but then, there is no law of physics that I know (and I am a physicist) which states that similar gains can not be had with less waste of energy and resources. America is 50% less efficient than Europe and Europe is probably 50% less efficient than it could be according to the laws of physics. We have plenty of solar radiation to satisfy our children's and grandchildren's hunger for energy. Real limits exist, but we aren't even close, yet.
My billionaire story was meant to be hyperbole... apologies that people misunderstood my sense of humor. Since I don't dine with billionaires, I know nothing about them first hand. But the fact that they are billionaires and most people are not kind of leads me to believe that they are doing something differently... :-)
Don't forget luck. Everyone who makes it likes to think they did it all on their own, but anyone who is honest will see that luck played a part as well.
The difference between a billionaire and someone who is only modestly successful has a lot to do with luck. Your average billionaire is not a super genius who could find himself lost in the wilds of Africa and build an airplane out of leaves in order to fly himself to civilization and start an industrial empire. I wouldn't go so far as to say billionaires get where they do based only on luck, but it's a lot more luck than skill. They are lucky to be in the right place, at the right time, with the right idea. Others who are equally qualified just don't end up in the right place at the right time to get the big break.
surgery is being outsourced. Expect to see more and more insurance companies requiring their insureds to travel to places like India where first class heart surgery and hip replacements and the like can be done for a fraction of the cost of the USA
Plane tickets are a lot cheaper than what they charge for medical procedures in the USA (and other industrialized countries) these days. There already are many such "tour and cure" packages being sold.
The industrial production that is moving offshore is the energy intense version, eg fertilizer and plastic precursor production. US manufacturers can't compete with overseas competitors with access to $3/mcf ng.
Hadn't thought about job prospects for exotic dancers in this era of globalization! Now if you're talking about watching you are wrong - plenty available on the internet. If you are talking about lap dances you are correct!
I agree... the only jobs that will definitely stay here are those which require physical presence. And the people doing them will be the only ones without any means to ever leave their communities. Everyone else in the future will be able to choose where they want to work... on snowy planes or in buzzing Asian cities or on tropical islands.
If I wanted to, I could go to Singapore tomorrow. Or Australia. Or back to Europe. All I have to do is to apply for a job in any of these places or to open a business of my own. Granted, not everyone has the desire to move and to live on foreign shores. But those who have, usually value the experience. And often they come back to home and bring what they have learned with them.
What I am trying to say is that a world open to everyone who has set their mind to exploring it (quite literally) is not a bad thing.
And I would also think that among the tens of millions of Mexican immigrants in the US there are many who are homesick and who would rather like to live with their families rather than spend their lives on the run from one minimum wage job to the other or one farmer's field to the other.
I met a guy from the Philippines who works in the US to support his kids. He gets to see them once every year, at most. Do you think he is doing it because he has a choice? The man's heart brakes every time he talks about his kids and how he is afraid that his brother's family where they live is not treating them like their own. On the upside: his janitor's salary allows him to send his son to college to become a white collar worker... and the son will probably send his son to university to become a doctor or let his daughter be an attorney...
If you go to Singapore, you will see thousands of laborers from Malaysia work on construction sites...
I could go on. The short version is that people move to where the work is. Desperate people move further and endure more hardships than fat people with homes and social security checks. I don't mean that in a derogatory way, it is simply the result of the survival pressure that people are under. Hunger is a cruel mistress. When she talks, you listen.
I move to where I like because I can and because it is fun. I have made myself a home on three continents and maybe I will make that four by the time I retire... No, I do not think that the reasons I move for are typical. But I do think that moving is essential part of humanity. We were nomads and we can always be nomads if we have to.
Of course, we're not talking about moving among First World nations where the populations all have comparable incomes. But then that's not where the jobs are being outsourced to anyway.
There is abolutely nothing wrong with this picture, unless your economic credo is that you can only profit if someone else starves. I think the world as a whole has reduced such 18th century thinking to rubble. We all profit from China and India taking over the industries that we can't run profitably any longer.
Now, I take it from your post that you are probably not a billionaire...?
I also represent a growing fraction of the world's population that understands the necessity to move around. My point was that there are many reasons to be mobile. Being part of the jetset is the unlikeliest one, though. It is much more likely that either you are starving or that your level of education is needed somewhere else. In my case it is the latter. In the case of my parents it was the former. We did not make the world this way, we just adapted to it.
Infinite, I do see your points as being valueable, but I think you've read one too many Thomas Friedman articles on the wonders of cinnabons. I guess you have a positive outlook on "globalization", you seem to have a romantic vision of efficiency, profit and order for all... Whereas I see globalization simply as labor arbitrage and squeezing the last few bucks out of an industrial system that is bound to collapse (in any form, whether run by global capitalism or so called "marxist socialism".)
First off, sure, you have to be smart to be a billionaire (at least a self made one, if you look at the Forbe 400 list you will find that although many are self made, there are quite a few that inherited.) On the other hand, becoming filthy rich is way less a function of "smarts", than it is of hard work, taking advantage of every opportunity and, of course, greed. I would put way more stress on greed than "smarts"... In fact, I would bet that you could be a total fucktard and still become a billionaire simply by pure greed (of course, I'm not saying a greedy mentally deficient individual could achieve such a feat--there is obviously a nominal base of intelligence to make money). My point is simply that I think you're wrong to stress "smarts", since there are millions upon millions of people that are way more smart then the vast majority of billionaires. In fact, billionaires usually employ people that are far moer intelligent than them.
You misunderstood BrianT. Perhaps you need to get down from the saddle and actually discuss things as opposed to stating your opinions as facts from high atop hi-ho silver. My understanding of what BrianT was saying is that we are all on the same boat. We are all homo sapiens, we are all related and we all live on "spaceship earth". Our space ship may be easy to get around right now, and may have enough resources for everyone to plow around in military vechicles in urban environments, but eventually this free for all will end. Just because people have been crying wolf since whale oil, doesn't mean that resources are infinite and that prognosticators will forever be wrong. In case you didn't notice, this blog's focus is energy depletion and our "future".
BrianT's point was that once TSHTF billionaires and the unemployed will both have problems, albeit different ones. For instance, billionaires will be concerned with having even tighter security, contingents of body guards and militarized homes then they already do... They will be afraid of the masses of enraged Americans who were told by Reagan in the 80s that it was Morning in America... When people find out it is actually Dusk in America, the public will want to eat the upper class alive.
Perhaps you disagree with my perspective on this, since you obviously seem joyfully optimistic about our future (despite massive, never before experienced challenges for our species on the very near horizon...) To go down the list briefly with no depth:
- spiraling wars in the middle east (already in progress)
- global oil production depletion (no one knows--not a good thing)
- global warming (again, no one knows--not a good thing)
- unprecendent debt levels (growing rapidly monthly)
- overpopulation (approaching 7 billion--more people have been alive in the last 200 years than cumultively in all of human history)
- mass extinction
- ecological degradation (rainforests all around the world be burned and chopped down, coral reefs dying, etc.)
I could go on but you get the jist of it.While you seem to enjoy doing the "hey look how stupid feckless unemployed 20 somethings are compared to our brilliant billionaires!" I would rather side with BrianT and simply agree that we are products of only two things... Our environments and genetic dispositions. (Not to mention millions of years of natural selection.)
"potential of a billionaire"?????
So I assume you are saying that essentially there is a billionaire gene? Or there must be a rearing technique to enhance the "billionaire potential"?
Those are rhetorical questions, because obviously both have to be true. In order to get a billionaire you need A) the disposition to become one B) the environmental know how to function in the world to impress people, network, makes deals, etc with all the other BS required. Plus, the obvious desire to do so...
Again, I'm just writing this to make it known to all that I agree with BrianT, and think your arrogance is now apparent to anyone to see.
BrianT tries to say we're all in this together and you go out and write that he must not be a billionaire and that billionaires are smart? Wow.
hrmm...
"Whereas I see globalization simply as labor arbitrage and squeezing the last few bucks out of an industrial system that is bound to collapse (in any form, whether run by global capitalism or so called "marxist socialism".)"
Labor arbitrage existed everywhere at all times. It is not limited to moving jobs across borders in the late 20th century. Labor intense industries always moved to where the cheapest labor was and they always created high concentrations of low earners. What seems misguided to me is that some people in these posts complained that they can't be the low earners. I always ask myself why someone who has reasonable chances to move up to the middle class would want to hang on to the bottom of the system kinds of jobs. The Chinese who are taking these will certainly encourage their children NOT to follow Mom and Dad to the factory but go to school, then college and become an engineer or better.
As for the collapse of the system... I have yet to see any signs of that. Capitalism is happily producing one record result after the other everywhere in the world. One can argue that some of it is ecologically not sustainable. I would agree with that, but then, there is no law of physics that I know (and I am a physicist) which states that similar gains can not be had with less waste of energy and resources. America is 50% less efficient than Europe and Europe is probably 50% less efficient than it could be according to the laws of physics. We have plenty of solar radiation to satisfy our children's and grandchildren's hunger for energy. Real limits exist, but we aren't even close, yet.
My billionaire story was meant to be hyperbole... apologies that people misunderstood my sense of humor. Since I don't dine with billionaires, I know nothing about them first hand. But the fact that they are billionaires and most people are not kind of leads me to believe that they are doing something differently... :-)
:-)
http://www.tompeters.com/entries.php?note=009333.php
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Are you aware of any examples of insurance companies getting involved with this?