The Oil Drum | JHK: "A Hard Place"

266 comments on JHK: "A Hard Place"

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Prof. Goose on October 2, 2006 - 9:40pm

honestly, it depends on the margin of the victory in a few weeks. If the margin is really close in the House (which after Foley is only 14 seats away), we could see party control of the chamber switch sides on a daily basis with #218 switching sides to appease and get pork for his/her district and the like. We could have a D speaker one day and an R speaker the next.

Also, if the Ds don't get control of the Senate, impeachment would be a moot exercise. And if that's the best they can do as an alternative agenda to the Republicans, they don't deserve to win...and I mean that.

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Nate Hagens on October 2, 2006 - 10:42pm

question and a comment. question first:

- how can the speaker change daily? you mean the day after the election results are final or literally daily?

comment -personally, i dont think democracy works, or was designed to work at populations greater than the tribal level(100-200) - democrats and republicans are both primarily influenced by big business, perhaps democrats slightly less so. we really do live in a world of $1 dollar 1 vote. Bush is a knucklehead, but we are kidding ourselves if Kerry or Gore would have made that much of a difference - geology, overpopulation and other woes would have taken the same path, perhaps slowed somewhat by lefter leaning policies. we need to be accountable ourselves and stop relying on (or blaming) a particular political party.

Ultimately we need a new party based on science, run by engineers or some such and headed by a 'benevolent dictator'- but our populace is not conditioned to vote for truth - charisma and abstractions 'feel' better.

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Prof. Goose on October 2, 2006 - 10:52pm

if the partisan balance is 218-217, and #218 on day 1 decides to be a Democrat, then the next day decides to be a Republican, procedural votes can (not necessarily will) be taken to have a new speaker/party control. It's a majority vote and procedural thing. Could be fascinating, especially if favors buy off #218. I'd love to live in #218's district, eh? (of course, there can be a LOT of #218s...)

You're not wrong Nate, I've often told my classes that representative democracy probably works a lot better when your MoC only represented 10k or so compared to the 700k represented by every MoC today...of course, the problem with that is that the size of the House has been capped at 435 since 1929 and the House Reapportionment Act.

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Nick on October 3, 2006 - 1:17am

What system would you suggest instead??

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jkissing on October 3, 2006 - 2:59pm

We have the best system but, like the former soviet union, it is too stable. Gerrymandering has become a science that perfectly places party majorities in nearly all districts, with very few truly competitive ones. In this system the critical thing is to get the majority party's nomination, and follow this by avoiding an explicit sex scandal; you are guaranteed reelection forever, or at least until the next gerrymandering exercise. So, we end up with left and right wing extremists in the US house, who of course have little polite things to say to each other.

The public has so far been resistant to changing from this system, generally with a compromise (with at least a modest number of competitive districts) occurring only when one party controls the statehouse and another the governorship. Obviously, extremists in general, and most elected officials themselves, have a strong interest in the status quo.

Perhaps, in those states with term limits, the officials could be bribed with a temporary increase in term in exchange for a permanent change in how districts are created. The public must be bribed, too, because they like term limits and the current reapportionist system.

So, my proposal for a CA ballot initiative "Eficiency in Government": change the legislature from bicameral to unicameral (single house) with total legislature spending to decline in proportion with the change in total elected officials, and with half the savings going to schools and the other half a reduction in sales tax; allow a new clock for term limits for the new senate; and, most important, invite various groups, inncluding, say, the black and hispanic legislative caucuses, the league of women voters, each party, the legislature and the governor to each submit a redistricting plan to teh CA supreme court, with the court determining which plan has the largest number of competitive districts. In the case of ties, the court would select the one most likely to result in representation of minorities in proportion to their share of CA population.

CA has sufficient US representatives to also have the number of state senators be the same as the number of US representatives, and could therefore have coincident districts.

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Nick on October 3, 2006 - 3:25pm

So, what you're saying is 1) we have too little democracy, not too much (due to gerrymandering), and 2) we need reform to eliminate gerrymandering, and 3) we need fewer representatives to save $. Do you feel an increase in district size will also promote democracy?

I understood Nate Hagens to be saying we needed less democracy, and that we need a scientific ruling elite - Prof Goose seemed to agree, and then to say that we needed more representatives.

I have to say I'm baffled by the idea that we need a scientific ruling elite. I don't think it's an exaggeration (or even disproportionately inflammatory) to say that it sounds like something from 1920's fascist literature, or 1890's socialist literature. I think scientists like Andrei Sakharov would strongly disagree.

Prof Goose: Do I understand you correctly? And, if so, what do you suggest as an improvement?

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Prof. Goose on October 3, 2006 - 4:47pm

Actually, no. I was saying that representation is so diluted in our current democracy (by having a representative for every 700k in the HoR) that it just further reinforces/allows elite governance.

The problem with democracy, as Madison put it, is that the public will is so subject to emotional decisionmaking that, sooner or later, it will make a decision that is fatal if left to its own devices, hence the creation of the representative republican system.

In my opinion, we need smaller districts/MORE representatives, which would mean concomitantly a MORE representative government, if we're going to stay with the system we have now that is.

I would not favor a pure technocracy, though I think that's where we're heading. A technocratic and corporate elite that controls the massive behemoth of government, whether it's fascist or socialist or whatever, we can all debate that.

Either way you look at it, the size of government is continuing to grow...and the growth that has occurred in the past five years is all attributable to the maintenance of order. Let's see, let me look up the word "reactionary" and "fascist."

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Nick on October 3, 2006 - 11:56pm

"The problem with democracy, as Madison put it, is that the public will is so subject to emotional decisionmaking that, sooner or later, it will make a decision that is fatal if left to its own devices, hence the creation of the representative republican system. "

Of course, Madison was just guessing, as no one had any experience with real democracy at that point. The original design had senators appointed by governors, the franchise limited to a small % of the population, etc., and yet an expansion of participation has, I think, been clearly an improvement. Has there ever been any real evidence that there can be too much democracy?

I agree that our recent problems with the "current occupant" have been the result of too little democracy, not too much.

"we need smaller districts/MORE representatives" an intriguing idea, and it kind've makes sense to me. OTOH, I wonder why the Senate now seems to be the moderating influence over the much larger house?

"the growth that has occurred in the past five years is all attributable to the maintenance of order. "

And yet, it seems clear to me that all this growth of "maintenance of order" has been counterproductive. The long-term interests of the US would clearly have been better served had we never tried to control the Middle East, starting 60 years ago. The sooner we give up the illusion of control, the better.

The example of Japan seems illustrative. They've prospered with no extension of military power at all, just a mercantilist approach.

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Jack on October 4, 2006 - 12:59am

Good post. I have to quibble with this though:

The example of Japan seems illustrative. They've prospered with no extension of military power at all, just a mercantilist approach.

So now if the U.S. can just get someone else to spend their money to protect them, they can follow the same path.

I think it is inaccurate to suggest the Japan or Europe would have stay unmilitarized if the US wasn't providing their security servcies for them.

If the US withdrew from Asia, Japan's view of self defense would change very quickly, as would that of every other country in the region.

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Nick on October 4, 2006 - 11:43am

What I was referring to was the projection of power: the use of military power to influence, dominate or replace foreign governments, such as Guatemala, Chile, Iran, Vietnam, Iraq, etc., etc.

AFAIK, the US defense of Japan really has been defensive, leaving the corporations of Japan on their own to negotiate with other countries. That has worked very well for Japan economically: their Self-Defence Force has stayed at roughly 1% of GDP, and yet their corporations have been extremely successful. Contrast that with the pre-WWII Greater Japan Co-Prosperity Sphere, or the US's counterproductive projection of power post-WWII.

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jkissing on October 4, 2006 - 2:21am

The senate is more moderate, with fewer extremists from the left and right, precisely because senate seats cannot be gerrymandered. Senators must appeal to at least some of the middle to be elected in most states.

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alistairC on October 4, 2006 - 4:47am

I imagine that Madison was thinking of the Athenian experience. That remains (if we agree to overlook the slave-owning aspect) probably the apogee of direct democracy, and it is extremely well-documented (I recommend reading the plays of Aristophanes to get the flavour of it. It reads like something absolutely contemporary, full of anecdotes about corrupt politicians and hypocritical sexual morals. And it's funny as hell).

It's with respect to the conduct of war that democracy posed the biggest problems to the Athenians. They did best when they appointed a dictator for the duration; and they did disastrously badly when the democratic institutions conducted the war themselves.

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jkissing on October 4, 2006 - 2:29am

The bicameral sysem does not provide more democracy, only more a) checks and balances, or b) more obstruction. In CA, at least, one senate seat is precisely two house seats; the same voters are represented in both the house and senate.
My main point is to do away with gerrymandering that creates non-competitive districts. Changing from 40 senators and 80 representatives to 53 senators is not increasing teh size of senate seats, but reducing their size. And, it matters not that representatives have smaller districts since the more powerful seneate remains less democratic.

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Nagorak on October 3, 2006 - 3:04am

I think this is pretty far fetched. It's not unheard of for congress to have close numbers and it hasn't resulted in control changing hands on a daily basis. I actually think the idea is pretty much ridiculous as the turncoat would quickly end up being blacklisted by both parties.

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neon9 on October 3, 2006 - 11:43am

I wouldn't be so sure. Lincoln Chaffee voted against the party line many times yet the national party supported him when election time came around against a much more conservative candidate.

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DavidM on October 3, 2006 - 1:04am

Bush is a knucklehead, but we are kidding ourselves if Kerry or Gore would have made that much of a difference - geology, overpopulation and other woes would have taken the same path, perhaps slowed somewhat by lefter leaning policies. we need to be accountable ourselves and stop relying on (or blaming) a particular political party.

Bush is more (and less) than a knucklehead, but I agree with your basic point.

I think this is the wrong direction, however. This sounds too much like Technocracy. The technofix is not the answer to our problems.

We as a culture need to learn to value cooperation rather than domination, people rather than profits, sustainability rather than growth, cutailment rather than consumption, relocalization rather than globalization, and giving birth to creative ideas rather than creating more babies.

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Magnus Redin on October 3, 2006 - 5:12am

We as a culture need to learn to value cooperation rather than domination,

Otherwise we cant afford to build the apropriate technofixes.

people rather than profits,

We need to build technofixes that people both want and need otherwise the products will end up being useless and the profits will be pissed away at marketing.

sustainability rather than growth,

We need technofixes for the long haul.

cutailment rather than consumption,

Good technofixes need to be recycleable so that we can technofix for hundreds of generations and beyond.

relocalization rather than globalization,

We cant build technofixes for all, some people and production will need to move, perhaps a lot of people and production. Fortunately global shipping via electrified rail and nuclear container ships will be fairly cheap to run in the post peak oil world.

and giving birth to creative ideas rather than creating more babies.

Yes, we will need a lot of new technofixes. And babies, the world would be depressing withouth young people.

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Jack on October 3, 2006 - 1:17am

Ultimately we need a new party based on science, run by engineers or some such and headed by a 'benevolent dictator'- but our populace is not conditioned to vote for truth - charisma and abstractions 'feel' better.

Nate - This is nuts. Firstly, to believe in a benevolent dictator, you have to think that power doesn't corrupt. Sure there have been a few instances of successful benign dictators, but it is hardly the rule.

I actually live in a country with a hugely successful benevolent king (Thailand). He is loved and respected because of his committment to thai people. However, almost no one thinks this is a model for other countries. Just great luck.

I have to go with Churchill on this one:

Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.

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Oilfall on October 3, 2006 - 1:52am

Jack, I patiently await an email from you. thanks

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Jack on October 3, 2006 - 2:41am

OK. I did remember that I had promised to email and forgot. I'll try today. - Jack

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Nagorak on October 3, 2006 - 3:07am

Are you kidding? If Gore had been elected we wouldn't stupidly be in Iraq. We might still have the same oil reliance problems, but things would be a hell of a lot different. If democracy doesn't work it's because people in general are stupid, it's not a size issue. But let's be honest: dictatorship and monarchy don't work either. Both eventually produce idiots, even ones who are much stupider than Bush (hard as that may be to believe), and often actually result in a succession of idiots until everything is in flames. Saying democracy doesn't work is silly. I agree it doesn't work well, but the alternatives over the long run are even less appealing.

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elwoodelmore on October 3, 2006 - 6:48pm

is the gop a magnet for butafuco's ? a few months ago we had jeff gannon male prostiture oops i mean male escort naw i meant prostitute pitching softballs in white house press conferences and now this mark foley what's next

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266 comments on JHK: "A Hard Place"

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“Of all races in an advanced stage of civilization, the American is the least accessible to long views… Always and everywhere in a hurry to get rich, he does not give a thought to remote consequences; he sees only present advantages… He does not remember, he does not feel, he lives in a materialist dream.”

—Moiseide Ostrogorski (1902, 302-303)