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241 comments on DrumBeat: October 2, 2006

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Dragonfly41 on October 2, 2006 - 9:26am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
So...welcome to the 4th QTR...today could set the tone for the rest of the year.  Let's see how things look before the bell rings in NY.

  • Oil was up over $63 overnight, but has pulled back before the bell this morning to $62.50 (look for it to go back over $63 by EOD).

  • DJ Futures are down -14 before the bell.  Look for it to struggle up to positive for awhile and then fight to break even by EOD.

  • Gold strong over $600 and US$ keeps gaining ground.

Who's got the tea leaves to tell us what it all means?

All I know is that Elway has the ball on his own 20 yard line and there are 2 linebackers rushing fast.

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Halfin on October 2, 2006 - 2:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I'm lookin' for that 63 but I keep seein' 61.

Well, there's another hour yet...

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Dragonfly41 on October 2, 2006 - 3:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Haaa...I was waiting for someone to bite.  Ya...I was off on the oil price (my guess is since KSA wants support, they would get it...perhaps that will come by the end of the week).  But, I was right on for the DOW and gold.  There is really nothing there on the DOW side to be happy about and retail sales are going to be very SAD this 4th QTR.  Gold will still be a safe haven, so prices should remain up.

Good thing, I don't really "play" the market...I just like to see if I can guess where it's going based on redundant patterns.  

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Valuethinker on October 3, 2006 - 12:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
My own thought is that oil could go to $40.

There is shut in capacity out there (Iraq in particular) and new discoveries coming on line.

meanwhile higher prices will reduce demand, it just takes time.

There has been a degree of political fear and financial speculation in the oil price, which could rapidly dissipate, especially in a mild winter.  US oil stockpiles are at record highs.

In a nearly 100% fixed cost industry, when prices start to slip, they really slip.

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Valuethinker on October 3, 2006 - 12:30pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
On the dollar, I think it could fall 40%, alongside a US housing crash.

that would correct the US trade deficit.  In fact, either that happens, or the US has a really nasty recession.  Or both.

Warning: very stale bear on USD.

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241 comments on DrumBeat: October 2, 2006

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