Let's burn the mothership first and ask questions later.
I know that the production of these stats and charts are the work of a dedicated creator of charts and stats, perhaps a scientist, and certainly one who believes that science will lead us all from the dark cave to the brilliant light of reason.
And I understand the mantra of the scientific community that we must know what we are facing before we can fix it, but I fear this slow moving beast, which stomps blindly on people with impunity, consoling itself with the platitude that it is helping people in the short term.
That's the problem. Short-term thinking. Everyone seems to only be concerned with keeping the oil flowing, no matter the cost. And the scientists who are putatively trumpeting the concerns of the peak oil crowd are unwittingly contributing to the downfall of humanity by advocating the go-slow approach. They would have us try to find other destructive methods to fuel our anti-nature lifestyle, to create dubious technologies to mitigate our short-sighted ruinous rush to embrace technology (think CO2 sequestration, Methane Clathrate mining and other potentially disastrous technologies), and finally they would have us believe that this is the only way, asking us not to look too far into the future.
The basis for our technological civilization is flawed at its core: perpetual growth and the injection of human values into a non-humancentric natural system. Therefore, I have come to the conclusion that nature will strike the balance, effectively killing off all but a few hundred million humans in the next two hundred years. No amount of rational thinking, strident pleading, careful individual preparation, or scientific humbug will stop this immense catastrophe.
This site has become like a club of Aeronautical Engineers holding court on the Hindenberg. While they head for their doom, they debate and trade memos and laud each other their efforts, inscribing beautiful colored charts that in fact describe their doom, but at the same time counseling calm, letting us know that they take certain measures to keep the balloon aloft. Though we all know it will all end in tears and recriminations.
You will undoubtedly ask, "So, what do you want us to do?"
Fair enough.
Make peace with your invisible sky being of choice.
All your base are belong to us.
There is nothing you can do. You are a mere 6.8 billionth of the social mass on this planet. You are but a speck on the backside of a massive survival engine that has evolved to seek the way of Paleolithic man, to survive day to day, no matter how destructive that short-term survival impulse coupled with high tech may be to future generations. Our natural inclination is to put individual over family, family over clan, clan over tribe, tribe over nation, nation over humanity. We are the selfish, thinking species and think we do. Witness this page.
So...Go on thinking. Go on chatting. Go on drawing charts. I'm going to trade my Prius for a Hummer and start drag-racing through the wilderness preserves. I hope, by speeding up the destruction of the environment, we can kill off this most perniciously self-centered species post haste.
The smoldering ruin that will mark post oil earth will be barren and wounded, its species decimated, the remnants of humanity doomed to live on the polar margins, scraping a living, learning to forget and forgetting to learn, and, with luck, the polar bears will eat those last survivors.
Cherenkov, I hear you. But, in the words of Jay Hanson, how could it be otherwise? (the mechanism to value the present steeply over the future being hardwired)
In August 1973 (a couple months before the first oil shock) when aged 17, I went on a solo cross country (USA) bicycle tour. This gave me a lot of time to observe and think as I dodged the thundering steel beasts that dominated the road and saw nature in retreat everywhere. By the end of the summer, I came to all the conclusions that Jay Hanson, AMPOD, and Cherenkov have seconded.
Homo sapiens is no different from yeast or any other organism, it will reproduce and consume its environment to the point of overshoot and collapse. If space aliens had beamed all the inhabitants of the OECD (developed) nations away, the end result would be the same. If all monotheists were raptured away, it would make no difference. The great majority of people everywhere love having children and love a motor. On Rarotonga, where it never drops below 20C, and the only road is just 32km in circumference (no place is more than 16km away), no adult will walk or ride a bicycle. In Shanghai, bicycles are banned from the CBD to make room for cars.
People will not powerdown willingly. Only collapse and dieoff can humble humanity. Therefore, both are inevitable because people will keep on with their monkey business (tar sands, oil palm plantations) until Gaia stops them.
Here I think a mini-collapse and a mini-dieoff might cause people to be aware of the situation in time to mitigate a total collapse and dieoff, and choose a better path. Then they will choose the powerdown path because they will have internalized (by learning) that that path is better for them. Powering down, and being happy and healthy about it, will be a new target for relative fitness. But not from being told that, only from experiencing it. At our DC conference Governor Schweitzer offered the challenge to be 'cool' about energy conservation with the slogan "How low can you go?" This might work in the framework of our evolved neural pathways, but not while profligate energy users still have more access to better mates and more stuff.
Nate, we are pretty close to agreement. While some might believe in human extinction, I don't. What I mean by collapse and dieoff is the the world will become a lot like Rapa Nui (aka Easter Island) after the last tree was cut. Rapa Nui continued to be habitable post collapse, just with a smaller and poorer population.
Of note, Niue and the Cook Islands have only avoided collapse by exporting their excess population growth to New Zealand and importing food. If the planes and boats stopped coming, they would have to revert to the old method of sustainability - warfare.
As long as someone is allowed to make money mining tar sands or destroying rainforests to grow biofuels, it will continue. I just can't see nature lovers ever outnumbering auto lovers or becoming more powerful.
Of course, just by being alive I am part of the problem. How else could it be? I am a self serving yeast just as is Jay Hanson, James Lovelock, Al Gore, and David Suzuki, none of them has committed suicide either. The only non yeasty thing I ever did was decide not to have children. Beyond that, I am following the AMPOD path of not trying to save the world, but just trying to use the mechanisms of our society to build a lifeboat for extended family and friends so I can finish my days as a (relatively) comfortable yeast while the world continues to burn up.
Your Prius does a great disservice to society et al. By burning less fossil fuel you are leaving some on the table to grow even more food to supply more bodies to support more crime gangs in Washington DC and Mumbai.
If someone wants to make a difference then use all your resources to burn as much fossil fuel as possible. The growth of food production must be halted to limit the human race to its current numbers. :-)
There is still too much slack in the system and vastly higher numbers could be supported by all 6.5 billion becoming vegetarians for example. So eat as much meat and dairy as possible.
BTW I do not blame the poor countries for their problems; these countries and great civilizations were destroyed by the two destructive "Semitic Religions" Islam and Christianity.
(you can't have Christianity and Islam without Judaism, a point explicitly recognised by Islam 'people of the book' to describe Christians and Jews)
- human beings of other religions (see various Chinese civil wars since 500 BC, Genghis Khan etc.) have contrived to destroy each other without help from Christianity
What you can say is the explosion of Christianity across the face of the planet 1500-1900 was an absolute ecological and human disaster for the peoples of the New World, Australia, Polynesia. Population collapses of as much as 90% and enormous loss of life. Let's not mention the Slave Trade (international, there already was one from Africa to the Arabs), the Opium Wars, the Indian Wars etc.
But I am only 50% inclined to blame Christianity. it wasn't the religion of Northern Europeans, it was a combination of technological revolution (that gave them a decisive military and political advantage), demographic explosion and a transformation of the economy.
And of course, our old friend the smallpox virus, which did more for the domination of the planet by Western Europeans than anything else.
We are biological in nature. Will there be a plague, prion, or some form of "organic" population control? I find this the best possible solution for those left to survive in our post petrol wake. Good God what have we done...to ourselves and our planet. Go Bird Flu!!!
Let's burn the mothership first and ask questions later.
I know that the production of these stats and charts are the work of a dedicated creator of charts and stats, perhaps a scientist, and certainly one who believes that science will lead us all from the dark cave to the brilliant light of reason.
And I understand the mantra of the scientific community that we must know what we are facing before we can fix it, but I fear this slow moving beast, which stomps blindly on people with impunity, consoling itself with the platitude that it is helping people in the short term.
That's the problem. Short-term thinking. Everyone seems to only be concerned with keeping the oil flowing, no matter the cost. And the scientists who are putatively trumpeting the concerns of the peak oil crowd are unwittingly contributing to the downfall of humanity by advocating the go-slow approach. They would have us try to find other destructive methods to fuel our anti-nature lifestyle, to create dubious technologies to mitigate our short-sighted ruinous rush to embrace technology (think CO2 sequestration, Methane Clathrate mining and other potentially disastrous technologies), and finally they would have us believe that this is the only way, asking us not to look too far into the future.
The basis for our technological civilization is flawed at its core: perpetual growth and the injection of human values into a non-humancentric natural system. Therefore, I have come to the conclusion that nature will strike the balance, effectively killing off all but a few hundred million humans in the next two hundred years. No amount of rational thinking, strident pleading, careful individual preparation, or scientific humbug will stop this immense catastrophe.
This site has become like a club of Aeronautical Engineers holding court on the Hindenberg. While they head for their doom, they debate and trade memos and laud each other their efforts, inscribing beautiful colored charts that in fact describe their doom, but at the same time counseling calm, letting us know that they take certain measures to keep the balloon aloft. Though we all know it will all end in tears and recriminations.
You will undoubtedly ask, "So, what do you want us to do?"
Fair enough.
Make peace with your invisible sky being of choice.
All your base are belong to us.
There is nothing you can do. You are a mere 6.8 billionth of the social mass on this planet. You are but a speck on the backside of a massive survival engine that has evolved to seek the way of Paleolithic man, to survive day to day, no matter how destructive that short-term survival impulse coupled with high tech may be to future generations. Our natural inclination is to put individual over family, family over clan, clan over tribe, tribe over nation, nation over humanity. We are the selfish, thinking species and think we do. Witness this page.
So...Go on thinking. Go on chatting. Go on drawing charts. I'm going to trade my Prius for a Hummer and start drag-racing through the wilderness preserves. I hope, by speeding up the destruction of the environment, we can kill off this most perniciously self-centered species post haste.
The smoldering ruin that will mark post oil earth will be barren and wounded, its species decimated, the remnants of humanity doomed to live on the polar margins, scraping a living, learning to forget and forgetting to learn, and, with luck, the polar bears will eat those last survivors.
Homo sapiens is no different from yeast or any other organism, it will reproduce and consume its environment to the point of overshoot and collapse. If space aliens had beamed all the inhabitants of the OECD (developed) nations away, the end result would be the same. If all monotheists were raptured away, it would make no difference. The great majority of people everywhere love having children and love a motor. On Rarotonga, where it never drops below 20C, and the only road is just 32km in circumference (no place is more than 16km away), no adult will walk or ride a bicycle. In Shanghai, bicycles are banned from the CBD to make room for cars.
People will not powerdown willingly. Only collapse and dieoff can humble humanity. Therefore, both are inevitable because people will keep on with their monkey business (tar sands, oil palm plantations) until Gaia stops them.
Here I think a mini-collapse and a mini-dieoff might cause people to be aware of the situation in time to mitigate a total collapse and dieoff, and choose a better path. Then they will choose the powerdown path because they will have internalized (by learning) that that path is better for them. Powering down, and being happy and healthy about it, will be a new target for relative fitness. But not from being told that, only from experiencing it. At our DC conference Governor Schweitzer offered the challenge to be 'cool' about energy conservation with the slogan "How low can you go?" This might work in the framework of our evolved neural pathways, but not while profligate energy users still have more access to better mates and more stuff.
Hard times for sure, but end of times I doubt.
Of note, Niue and the Cook Islands have only avoided collapse by exporting their excess population growth to New Zealand and importing food. If the planes and boats stopped coming, they would have to revert to the old method of sustainability - warfare.
As long as someone is allowed to make money mining tar sands or destroying rainforests to grow biofuels, it will continue. I just can't see nature lovers ever outnumbering auto lovers or becoming more powerful.
Of course, just by being alive I am part of the problem. How else could it be? I am a self serving yeast just as is Jay Hanson, James Lovelock, Al Gore, and David Suzuki, none of them has committed suicide either. The only non yeasty thing I ever did was decide not to have children. Beyond that, I am following the AMPOD path of not trying to save the world, but just trying to use the mechanisms of our society to build a lifeboat for extended family and friends so I can finish my days as a (relatively) comfortable yeast while the world continues to burn up.
= www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
If someone wants to make a difference then use all your resources to burn as much fossil fuel as possible. The growth of food production must be halted to limit the human race to its current numbers. :-)
There is still too much slack in the system and vastly higher numbers could be supported by all 6.5 billion becoming vegetarians for example. So eat as much meat and dairy as possible.
BTW I do not blame the poor countries for their problems; these countries and great civilizations were destroyed by the two destructive "Semitic Religions" Islam and Christianity.
- 3 - Judaism, Christianity, Islam
(you can't have Christianity and Islam without Judaism, a point explicitly recognised by Islam 'people of the book' to describe Christians and Jews)
- human beings of other religions (see various Chinese civil wars since 500 BC, Genghis Khan etc.) have contrived to destroy each other without help from Christianity
What you can say is the explosion of Christianity across the face of the planet 1500-1900 was an absolute ecological and human disaster for the peoples of the New World, Australia, Polynesia. Population collapses of as much as 90% and enormous loss of life. Let's not mention the Slave Trade (international, there already was one from Africa to the Arabs), the Opium Wars, the Indian Wars etc.
But I am only 50% inclined to blame Christianity. it wasn't the religion of Northern Europeans, it was a combination of technological revolution (that gave them a decisive military and political advantage), demographic explosion and a transformation of the economy.
And of course, our old friend the smallpox virus, which did more for the domination of the planet by Western Europeans than anything else.