It's a bit bigger and more complex than that:

Russia is coming to the breakpoint, and are going to have to decide whether they want to be seen as a "reliable supplier" or whether they want to go "nationalist" and retain their gas for themselves, and/or use it as a political weapon.  This is very important.

Russia has the right to take the nationalist path, as does any nation.  But if does, it cannot be considered a reliable partner and supplier in long term contracts and obligations, which is the stock in trade of a reliabel resource provider.  This is what all nations with energy resources are going to have to decide.   In two of the three posts, prior this one, the subject of 'resource nationalism" is being touched on, and has been touched on often on TOD.

However, we must remember that gas/oil in the ground does not provide income.  And no nation can burn it "now" in the immediate sense, so they are left with a decision, that being whether to sell it abroud to help raise cash, or to hoard it, and do without the income.  As of this moment, there are other competitors out there who are willing to or must sell oil/gas for income.  If a nation takes the "hoard it" path, or attempts to play politics with the resource, they will quickly be seen as unreliable as an energy provider in the short term.

This is particularly important in the case of natural gas, because if a supplier proves "spotty", they can create a catastrophic failure for their customers, even a deadly one.  If in the heart of a record winter, the gas supplier decides to flex it's muscle, or has a massive supply failure due to lack of commitment and investment, they can literally freeze their customers to death.

One thing is certain:  No nation can have it both ways.  This is what OPEC and the Saudi's found out in the 1970's, when they openly played the "oil card" in the Yom Kippur War in 1973.  After the Arab boycott of Western nations, the Western customers went on a mad dash of investment and contracts with non-OPEC nations to supply oil, viewing OPEC as an un-reliable supplier.
It took OPEC two decades to fully recover their reputation, and they have had to make serious commitments to restore their customers.  That is why they do not so easily play the oil card now.

Venezuela, despite it's differences with the U.S., has likewise been cautious in giving up its status as "reliable" supplier.  After all, what else do they have to sell....likewise, our Russian friends.  Have you seen many Russian or Venezuelian cars or TV's lately?

Surely an indication of how certain the markets are that nations who rely on oil and gas as their essential source of income is the latest yawn at Saudi and OPEC commitments to cut production by some 1.2 million barrels a day.  The price continues to be weak on oil futures, indicating that the big players in the market not only do not believe OPEC supply is going to fall for geological reasons (i.e., peak) or logistacal problems (machinery, investment, workforce issues), they do not even believe the Arabs can bring oil/gas production down much even if they want to!

The belief seems to be that the nations of OPEC need the money that oil provides as badly as we need the oil.

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout