<DrumBeat: October 25, 2006 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: October 26, 2006>

94 comments on Koppelaar: Peak Oil, Separating Facts from Fiction

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Sam Foucher on October 25, 2006 - 12:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks for your answer.

Average decline of all 22 peaked countries is approximately 4.6% or 4.7% depending on which year you take as a starting point (1996 or 2003). 4% post peak would therefore be an optimistic setting, especially when including deep sea decline rates. A few years after peak something like between 5% and 6% seems like a more likely decline rate then 4%. Before peak it is ofcourse different and then 4% seems more reasonable
This suggests that the decline rate is not constant but increases with time. Have you ever tried to model the decline from the 22 declining countries using a logistic model instead of an exponential decline? the use of a logistic model will give you a decline rate that will slowly increase after the peak.
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Rembrandt on October 26, 2006 - 6:14am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
No, If i had the time I would have dug into that. A friend of mine is working on an open source program that automatically models production in various settings such as logistic modelling.
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Sam Foucher on October 26, 2006 - 8:18am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Interesting, Is this project online? is it open to any participants?
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Rembrandt on October 27, 2006 - 4:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Not yet, hopefully the base case will be finished somewhere next year. He is very busy and is doing this in his spare time.
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Oil CEO on October 27, 2006 - 4:51am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hey RK,

I just wanted to say, excellent work, I really like the ASPO newsletter, as well. I like the mega-projects section at the end. It is something I have been working on, and am glad to see you've beat me to the punch. You certainly lit a fire under my ass.

Skrebrowskis and CERA's layouts are frustrating to say the least. I like how you have grouped things.

I do have one serious question, though.

You say 22 have peaked out of top 50. I have reviewed the top fifty and have come to a different conclusion.

I can only verify 12 peaking. I have 24 that have not peaked. I add to this the other 14 as "unclear"(is what I call it). I will submit that "unclear" amounts in essence to "not peaking." To me this says, 12 and 38 - or if you want to slpit the difference, 19 and 31. Not 22 and 28. I'm not intested in arguing. I'm fascinated by where we disagree.

I realize that these definitions, how they are calculated, and what they mean are highly problematic and subject to much debate.

I can submit a list here and we can talk about it(an idea I like since it would subject us to peer review), or we can continue this privately. I have no inherent interest in conducting any discussion publicly. You tell me. But for the hell of it, can you just name the 22?

I have detailed numbers and analysis regarding each of these 50 producers. I can email you information presently, but within a few days, I should have produced a comprehensive PDF, and hopefully will be able to direct you to a private website archiving this data.

I would seriously appreciate your input and analysis.

Sincerely,
Oil CEO

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94 comments on Koppelaar: Peak Oil, Separating Facts from Fiction

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