<DrumBeat: October 25, 2006 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: October 26, 2006>

94 comments on Koppelaar: Peak Oil, Separating Facts from Fiction

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doctorbob on October 25, 2006 - 11:20am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Yes, a great post. It has been said here in elsewhere in the recent past that your predictions of peak oil time are optimistic.  Khebab's figures seem to support this - will we really pull out of the plateau or slight decline in total liquids that has lasted now for almost 12 months?  If so, where will the extra come from given the rate the North Sea, Canterell and maybe other vital areas are declining?  And if not, how long will the plateau last before your predicted 4-5% decline rate - surely beyond what our current society can cope with - kicks in?  Will it last until 2012 or even 2017, or will TSHTF much sooner?
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Rembrandt on October 25, 2006 - 11:40am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
@Doctorbob

Based on the figures that I have in my database yes. It's simple mathematics with plus and minus. Figure out the decline rate, figure out the new oil production coming on-stream. These figures say that the plateau that we are on at the moment is only a temporary one. If you want to know where it will come from in 2007 look here, this is as detailed as it gets:

http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2006/10/asponl_newsletter_5_2006.pdf

The appendixes in this newsletter give all the oil projects that i have in my database which have been obtained and doublechecked from a variety of sources (mainly oil companies but also other oil project reports for instance).

This method is simple and reliable. It is ofcourse always possible that several countries in the middle-east will not inrease their production because of political or because of geological reasons. One cannot predict that this will happen. Since it is very unlikely that this is the case (to my opinion) I am not integrating this in my prediction.

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Down under on October 25, 2006 - 6:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Rembrandt,
         Very good post, but I suspect your 2007 figures of production may not be correct. If one is wrong, others must be too. Chinguetti, in Mauritania did not produce at all in 2005 but was supposed to come onstream in Feb 2006 at 75,000 per day but so far has only achieved 33,000. I am a shareholder in Woodside Petroleum and that is why I know of this information. Also a 4% decline wood likely be exponential over a few years and rise above this percentage, Schlumberger says 8%.
         Look at Ghawar, producing a little over 5 million barrels per day in 1981 with water injection of 4 million barrels of water and now below 5 million and water injection of 9.5 million per day. That water increase tells the story.
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Rembrandt on October 26, 2006 - 6:20am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
@down under

Interesting regarding Chinguetti, I am not saying that all the figures I have are correct, since I don't have access to very expensive databases who doublecheck all the data.

Some will be in error, others will not be included, which matches out probably.

"Also a 4% decline wood likely be exponential over a few years and rise above this percentage, Schlumberger says 8%."

I don't see why this would rise exponentially, what kind of decline are we talking about? Schlumberger their 8% figure is that net or gross decline?

The questions with Ghawar is how slow or fast the decline will go... not when it peaks because it will soon peak.

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Down under on October 29, 2006 - 5:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Rembrandt,
            Sorry to take time to reply. Firstly, nothing I posted was a criticism of you but merely pointing out that many of these reports don 't measure up when production finally starts. Schlumberger's statement was 8% net. Over the past three to four years Exxon's has been around 10% worldwide. Further investigation shows Mutineer/Exeter in Australia will be below 90,000 per day and reserves will be downgraded.
            Tiof in Mauritania has not even produced yet and 70,000 barrels per day has never been mentioned. So there are three fields in that report which are known to be wrong from a transparent part of the world. I don't believe that many of these fields will produce at the rates stated and in the those time frames, hence the 4% decline is way too optimistic. North Sea is around 15%, Australia is 13% and rising,Mexico rapidly rising in it's decline rate. Sorry, just think 4% is too low
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94 comments on Koppelaar: Peak Oil, Separating Facts from Fiction

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