<DrumBeat: October 25, 2006 The Oil Drum DrumBeat: October 26, 2006>

94 comments on Koppelaar: Peak Oil, Separating Facts from Fiction

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clifman on October 26, 2006 - 10:00am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Spot on expat.  This piece by Dale Allen Pfieffer on the Energy Bulletin is the best work I've seen on the confluence of PO & climate change.  Parts II and III are here and here (PDF warning on #3)  Comprehensive and well worth the time IMHO.
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jim burke on October 26, 2006 - 12:56pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
All projections should be viewed as best case scenarios, because political, military and natural events will certainly subtract from production, but will rarely add to it.

Consider how much production has been lost in the past 5 years due to non-geological, non economic forces. Imagine if you could graph that, and model it into the future.  

My guess would be that, because of the impending defeat in Iraq, unrest in Nigeria, and Putin's actions, etc., there will be greater losses in the future than there have been in the past.

Thus, "peak 2010" might become "peak 2007" because of forces which would be difficult to anticipate, let alone graph.

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expat on October 26, 2006 - 11:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
'...political, military and natural events will certainly subtract from production, but will rarely add to it.'

Actually, that is pretty insightful, as long there is some recognition that some production can be quickly restored (freezing in winter) while other production is gone (sunk in the Gulf).

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94 comments on Koppelaar: Peak Oil, Separating Facts from Fiction

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