Khosla stumps for solar, California ballot initiative

Rick Merritt  
EE Times
(10/17/2006 7:46 PM EDT)  

SAN JOSE, Calif. -- The big opportunity for solar energy is in utility plants, according to Vinod Khosla, who gave back-to-back keynotes on the subject here Tuesday (Oct 16.). The iconic venture capitalist who has started his own alternative energy investment company also stumped for California's Proposition 87, which would fund research into so-called clean technology.
"I now believe that thermal solar will be cheaper than coal-fired electricity plants. It is far more risky to build a coal-fired plant than a solar thermal one today," said Khosla, speaking at the Emerging Ventures conference.

Photovoltaic cells have made significant advances with thin film, multi-junction technology. Utilities represent an opportunity for solar energy that could amount to hundreds of billions of dollars, said Khosla, who earlier in the day he delivered a keynote at a solar power conference a block away that attracted an estimated 7,000 attendees.

Although many developers are pursuing the low-cost solar cells, Khosla said "that's exactly the wrong way to go.

"Solar systems would still cost $2 kiloWatt/hour if the cell cost went to zero. What we need are higher efficiency cells. We should be saying we will accept higher costs to get 30 percent efficient cells," he said.

Separately, Khosla spoke out in favor of California's Proposition 87 that would levy a fee on petroleum to be used in part to fund alternative energy technologies.

"This is probably going to be the most expensive race in the country this year," Khosla said, estimating oil companies have already spent $67 million attacking the measure and could spend $80-$100 million before the November vote.

Thirty percent of the Prop. 87 funds would go to university R&D, Khosla said. "Clean tech R&D has been declining in this country for 30 years. We absolutely need to have more R&D in this area," he said.

Another 57 percent of the Prop. 87 fees would be used to lower oil consumption, he added.

"Oil companies get a 500-percent depreciation on some assets. That's just one of a half dozen clauses I know of that are in effect subsidies for oil companies," he said.

Khosla is mainly known for funding a number of Silicon Valley's biggest ventures as a partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield and Byers. He now devotes much of his time to the clean tech area which is the focus of Khosla Ventures. The new company has a broad portfolio of investments including bets on as many as eight alternative fuel companies.

"When oil went above $40 a barrel, a host of things became viable," said Khosla.

http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=193303526

That is a complete about face on what he said to me about solar. I argued that solar makes more sense than ethanol, and he said that solar couldn't compete with coal. However, the only way ethanol is competing with oil is through subsidies. Maybe he listened to me?
If so, congratulations!! California seemes to wake up after almost two decades sleeping. Solar power, thermal and photovoltaic will become an important energy source.

7,000 people on a conference about solar power. How many people go to conferences about PO? Here in Berlin 2 years ago  at the ASPO workshop it was maybe 180...?

What are our conclusions about this differnce in numbers? Probably people are more interested in future trends than in moribund technologies?

The recognition of peak oil is one step in the ten steps to recovery. Focusing on solutions like solar power is the next step.  I see that as a good sign.  We can only focus on the problem for so long.  We can only hope for the day when peak oil conferences are unnecessary.  When one starts taking steps away from oil dependence, then one doesn't need to go back and analyze the problem.

The debates will continue on peak oil for several more years. We cannot wait for its ultimate resolution before action is taken.  Solar will only be a part of the solution but has more ultimate promise than alternatives like ethanol. Solar may never be considered economically competitive. But we can't affort to debate it for ten more years while the planet warms.

For growing numbers of people, whether or not peak oil is here or will be here in 20 years is beside the point. Global warming is here and cannot be addressed by more oil consumption. A definitive proof that peak oil is here would be interesting and icing on the cake, but is not necessary to make the progress that needs to be made.

Good for California. Each of us needs  urge our local representatives to follow suit, using California has an example.

still deafeningly silent on subsidies for oil companies, eh RR?
Oh my gosh! I think a bridge has lost its troll this morning.

If you have something you wish to say, and it is something I have taken a position on, by all means spit it out man.

I am very clear, as is everyone here on your position on ethanol subsidies.
I have never seen ANY posts on oil company subsidies.
Please link.
Don't be lazy. Do your own homework. You can start with the story I recently wrote advocating much higher gasoline taxes. I don't favor any oil company subsidies, and frankly I would like to see us completely stop using fossil fuels altogether. I want people to pay the true costs, and I don't want them to be hidden behind any tax breaks, etc. This would encourage conservation, which if you do your homework you will see that I also advocate.

What hypocrites like you don't seem to appreciate is that any oil subsidies also subsidize the ethanol industry. That is, unless you can show me a tractor or semi running on the ethanol they produce. What you would find is that higher gasoline prices will force higher ethanol prices. Such is the hypocritical nature of ethanol advocates - undisputably receiving very generous subsidies for marginal energy creation - complaining about oil company subsidies that directly benefit them.

Clear enough?

Hypocrites, huh?  Do I hear an ad hominem?

You clearly favor oil company subsidies as you refuse to talk about them on this blog.  You'd rather dwell ad nauseam (Latin, in case you don't understand) on ethanol whose subsidies have stayed at home, rather than being invested aboard in oilogolopolies .  Do your own homework on the subsidies.  Khosla has, it doesn't take a billionaire.  Who cares if you want higher gas taxes, you still want all the power in the hands of your bosses.  Not what I want.

No tax breaks were given to ethanol producers to run their tractors, etc on ethanol.  So Because gas was cheap, they didn't bother.  Things will change now, once they get educated.  If oil companies will allow it.

I'm happy to see all oil subsidies lifted, regardless of what it does to ethanol industry.  Then we'll see who survives.  We're a pretty ingenious people when we wanna be.  Why bother with gas taxes when you can lift all subsidies and watch prices rise!  Then we'll have to go out and make our own cheap stuff!

As Khosla says, naysayers better stand back and get out of the way, because ethanol is coming and in a few years, it will be mostly sustainable, no thanks to oil industry obstructionism.  
 

because ethanol is coming and in a few years

I'll believe it when I see it.  The EROEI studies I've seen so far only make this worthwhile for Sugar in Brazil(Maybe).  I've yet to see the data for corn ethanol or other North American crop that says this will be an energy positive investment.  Consider also that crops rely heavily on oil/NG to plow, harvest, fertilize and pesticide their crops, I find it convenient that most Ethanol studies I've seen ignore the energy inputs of those actions.

it will be mostly sustainable

Either it is, or it isn't, its kind of the same problem when people say, they're almost not pregnant.  Mostly sustainable is another way to say not sustainable.  You might argue it will take a long time for the degradation of the process to catch up with itself, but ultimately it is not sustainable if its only "mostly sustainable".

You clearly favor oil company subsidies as you refuse to talk about them on this blog.

And you apparently clearly favor Ethanol without fair consideration to oil and how it impacts the ability of Ethanol to be viable.  But hey, Kettle meet Pot.

Sugar ethanol studies promoting 8:1 energy return are published by the Brazilian government and are not peer-reviewed. Unlike Pimentel's work in the US on other biofuels.

I find it difficult to believe that one particular woody plant (sugar cane) growing on this planet earth and receiving similar solar radiation could be 4X as productive as corn, soy, etc. converting said radiation to similar mass.

I don't think anyone claims that sugarcane is "4 times as productive" but rather that the overall energy cost of producing it and turning it into a given amount of ethanol is (perhaps) 4 times less.  That is a big difference.

Corn produces some protein and some oil, which don't get turned into ethanol. Reasonable corn yields require huge amounts of fertilizer, which requires a lot of energy to produce.  Harvesting corn in the US is fairly energy-intensive also.

Sugarcane, on the other hand, produces carbohydrates with very little protein or fat, with less fertilizer input, and it is harvested with fewer energy inputs as well, at least in Brazil.

So while you may well be correct that the Brazilian numbers are inadequately documented, I don't think it is hard to believe that one crop might be vastly superior to another by this metric (EROEI) for ethanol production.

Pstarr has been making this sort of post frequently and rarely responds to any conterpoint. My impression is that he is so religiously opposed to ethanol, he thinks that it is essential that he combat any assertion that there could be anything good about any kind of ethanol.

While I suspect the root of this oppositionalism is a well justified concern over the broader impacts of biofuels, I think perpetrating falsehood about ethanol EROEI is the wrong way to deal with the real potential problems of biofuels.

Here are several links that all cite figures of positive 8-10 EROEI for ethanol from sugar cane, none of which come from the Brazilian government. I have posted these for pstarr several times, but he continues to ignore them or attempt to discredit them, without opening the documents. The studies address EROEI, land use, environmental and climate impacts and other issues in detail.

There are good points and bad points to ethanol and biofuels. Potential deforestation from biodiesel is so bad as to justify a halt to all palm-based fuel immediately. The article linked at the top of this thread has several other links that discuss these very real issues. But his willfully inaccurate assault on the EROEI of sugar cane-based ethanol is not helping this cause.

Here are three studies
IEA Automotive Fuels for the Future
http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/1990/autofuel99.pdf

IEA: Biofuels for Transport
http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2004/biofuels2004.pdf

Worldwatch Institute & Government of Germany: Biofuels for Transport  (Link to register - study is free)

http://www.worldwatch.org/node/4078

Potential for Biofuels for Transport in Developing Countries

http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2006/01/05/000090341_20060105 161036/Rendered/PDF/ESM3120PAPER0Biofuels.pdf

you keep repeating these same studies (Macedo et. al. )but none are peer-reviewed and I am starting to doubt their veracity. I am sorry that you find my sceptism upsetting. I find your repetition boring.

The truth will win out.

I find it difficult to believe that one particular woody plant (sugar cane) growing on this planet earth and receiving similar solar radiation could be 4X as productive as corn, soy, etc. converting said radiation to similar mass.

I admit I'm a skeptic too, but then I also readily admit I'm not a biologist of biofuels expert, hence the "(Maybe)" I appended to my statement about Brazilian sugar cane.  But sugar cane in relation to US demand is inconsequential, as A) we can't grow sugar cane like the Brazilians can, and B) Even if we could, several people have stated we would still need to curb our appetite for liquid fuels as it can't replace current oil consumption.  

So we are left with Corn, which currently is in the middle of a firestorm of debate about its viability.  Not saying we shouldn't explore corn ethanol at all, but pending our futures on an untested "maybe" doesn't seem smart to me, when we do know of models which could allow us to maintain a modern standard of living albeit a different looking one.  Mainly accomplished by bussing/trolley systems, light rail, heavy rail, and an effort to bolster and improve our electricity grid along with localizing electricity generation via solar, wind,

Hypocrites, huh?  Do I hear an ad hominem?

Yet another person who doesn't understand what an ad hominem actually is. Look it up. And ad hominem is when you starting casting aspersions on my arguments by making false accusations against me, like "you must be getting paid to do this."

You clearly favor oil company subsidies as you refuse to talk about them on this blog.

So, you ask me about oil company subsidies; I tell you I am against them; and you announce that I clearly favor them. If you think you already know the answers, and aren't willing to listen, why bother asking the question?

I have no trouble at all talking about oil company subsidies. Show a case where I "refuse to talk about them." You have been guilty of having your facts wrong on a great number of occasions, and this is just another example.

I would also point out that you and Blume were claiming oil company subsidies equivalent to the entire federal budget of the U.S. government. I don't consider you exactly the most credible source out there.

No tax breaks were given to ethanol producers to run their tractors, etc on ethanol.

Yet ethanol is subsidized, is it not? That is a tax break. So instead of relying on cheap oil to run their tractors, why not run them on tax-subsidized ethanol? Do you know why they don't? Because the ethanol industry in the U.S. is completely dependent on cheap fossil fuels (your pipe dreams notwithstanding). Wake up and smell the coffee.

If you have an actual argument to make, now's the time. I am too busy to mess with trolls right now.

It now appears you have been paid very well to do this.  Witness all the offers that have come in for you.
Thanks for all your insults and condescension.  Time will tell what will occur now, won't it?  
You can bet oil companies will do their damndest to smash any alternative.  It's part of history, something I don't think you've studied enough of.
Check out Forbidden Fuel by Kovarik and Bernton, which will be rereleased next year.  They're not pro or con ethanol particularly but they know history.  And history shows what oil companies do.
Kenny Rogers now has to think  about his cheating.  Hope you're always thinking about well you serve the status quo by working for big oil.

BTW, the numbers Blume and I cited were from the Center for Technology Assessment's report which they updated during the Iraq war.  We d on't invent facts out of whole cloth, you know.  

What can I say? You had your chance to work on sustainable ethanol and you gave it up for fossil fuel.  You say you want to end our dependence on fossil fuel?  Then why work for the enemy?  (better life for your family, Ik n ow what that's about, really I do)  Read some history and you'll see why I call them the enemy.

Stop preening about yourself and sneering at Blume.  Look at what he's done and then decide if you think he's a nutjob.  (Which clearly you do.)
http://permaculture.com/who/teachers/blume.shtml

Bon voyage.  I blog rarely because I have a life and wife and children.... sorry not to address everyone else's responses here.  

What can I say? You had your chance to work on sustainable ethanol and you gave it up for fossil fuel.  You say you want to end our dependence on fossil fuel?  Then why work for the enemy?

You should thank your lucky stars that some of us do. What do you think would happen if oil companies suddenly turned off the taps? Sometimes I wish people could see the consequences of what would happen if Big Oil just got fed up with all the hatred pointed their direction and just shut the taps off for a while. I think then people would come to appreciate how much their lives depend on oil production.

Your problem, in all honesty, is that you are seriously delusional. All this oil company vitriol is a bit tiresome, when you are as dependent on oil products as are the rest of us (and as is the ethanol industry).

Ethanol seems to be on the exact path I had expected. Here is a quickie website for all commodities.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/
As you can see Dec corn is up to $3.27 and higher for later months. No doubt due to the USDA crop report of 10.8 billion bushels for 2006. As ethanol production continues to rise so will corn prices, and at some point either gas will have to increase, and NG will have to decrease, or the subsidy will have to increase, or there will be some sorry ethanol investors. It may get up to 5% of gasoline fuel. As gas prices increase so does diesel, and all farm expenses, so in order to maintain corn production, corn prices will continue to rise. If PO is on a plateau and gas prices remain flat, ethanol goes in the dump. Compared to last year corn prices have caused a 40-cent drop in ethanol margin and the lower gas prices will increase the lower margin. What happens next year if the crop is further reduced and corn is $4, and gasoline spot is still under $2? I don't see ethanol production increasing more than another 50% before it becomes a net loser for the producers, and investors.
Unless there is a breakthrough in cellulosic ethanol there will be some idle new ethanol plants. I don't see gas prices rising fast enough to keep up with rising corn prices, unless there is a catastrophic political upheaval some where in the oil field. .  Checkout the ethanol price, why is it so much higher than gas, with 2/3rds the energy?
Dipchip,(possible airdale type)

You might like to check out what is happening in the ethanol scenario in the state of IOWA. Peers the farmers coops are doing it big time. ADM is the big hitter in Illinois. Here in Ky the plants are being touted a lot. Farmers just love it.

The VCs smell flesh in the water to flense for their carpet bags. Politicos are for it and riding it to election.

So who loses? Who always loses?

IMO the ethanol scenario will , will happen and the chips can fall where they may. Yet the exports IMO will have to cease if serious corn goes to ethanol contracts.

In the end it be all folly as you surmise but the ride will be taken I am afraid.

Whats next then? Well the dieoff of course. The pale rider who is drunk on ethanol comes to set things aright.

Many who eschew religion and tetragrammon will suddenly find themselves on their knees begging , begging for relief and a light at the end of the tunnel. It won't happen for the goats and sheep still have to face the seperation test and then comes ...yep...The Lake Of Fire, you guessed it.

Finally the Whore of Babylon(sound familiar?) will feed from the face of the Serpent(this part is neat) and then ..well a NEW EARTH arises from the ashes of the old. We knew it. Darn it that I won't get to see it. I will be waiting for those graves to open and the dead to come forth. Won't be pretty I don't think.

So..spirituality wins. The righteous survive and why shouldn't they? The evildoers will go to that Lake yonder.

Airdale--Some/Most of the above is serious discourse. Some/Most is not. You all can pick and choose but .....but..choose carefully...Red or Blue. Election comes. Are you Red or Blue. Yank or Reb.Blue or Gray. Righteous or not. God Bombs will fall..S. King was right all along.Thankee sai and happy trails to ye.

P.S. Dipchip: I was duty station NAS Barbers Point, Oahu(and points north and west) for 4 long nice years. Back before the haole roundeyes ruined it for all. Willy Victors were my trade. Radar was my game. AT3,2,1 and out at TI. You?  

WOW!  Just WOW!!!
I'll get back to you later , right now I'm leaving for S. Padre (30 min.) for Co. retirie get together. Later
fuelaholic


still deafeningly silent on subsidies for oil companies, eh RR?

Yes, Mr. Rapier work for an oil company - but i really can't see how this exclude him from being honest and frank. I've not seen anything of his writings that should imply that his views are somewhat guided by big oil.

I have no idea what gave you an impression that Mr. Rapier is something remotely close to dishonest. He's a productive clear-thinking educator who choose to participate in a forum like TOD.

And to echo his own response; make a post if you believe there is something being under-communicated here.

That's what caught my eye. I'm sure you are making an impression on him. He's modified his views quite a bit since the beginning of your dialog.
 It feels to me that many of the solutions are starting to follow our line of thinking. Hydrogen bad, corn bad, electricity good,...you, Jeffery, Alan, and the other experts are making a difference.

Illegitimii non Carborundum

Although I hope this Prop losses (at least I'm voting against it), I am concerned that such a loss will be used to argue that Californians are against alternatives.  I would certainly have voted in favor of a bill that targeted energy use reduction via conservation, more localized microgeneration, some non-biomass R&D and buy-downs for PV and wind projects. I certainly would not have put in as large a PV system as I did without the California Energy Commission buy-down I got.
I didn't answer that question, but I don't have a cell phone. I have avoided getting one, and in fact I am the only person in my group at work who doesn't have one. I don't know how long I can hold out, though, as there is pressure for me to get one so I can be contacted when needed.
LMAO. Is that  gonna turn out to be the  common denominator among Peak Oilers?
Rat
Rat,

Yes, I do.  It's one of the old bag phones and I keep it in my truck for emergencies. I've had it for years. I think I get 10 minutes a month.  My wife has a newer one for the same reason.  

It's like today: I'm speaking at a pest seminar and if I have a breakdown or something, the sponsors of the seminar have to know I won't be showing up.

Todd

Although many developers are pursuing the low-cost solar cells, Khosla said "that's exactly the wrong way to go.

"Solar systems would still cost $2 kiloWatt/hour if the cell cost went to zero. What we need are higher efficiency cells. We should be saying we will accept higher costs to get 30 percent efficient cells," he said.

How did this guy ever get rich?

What we need are higher efficiency cells at low cost. But apparently trying to lower the cost is a bad idea. So let's forget cost and just subsidize high-end PV to the hilt, and our worries will be over.

Idiot.

How did this guy ever get rich?

Believe me, you are not the first person to ask that question. :-)

He was lucky...the glorification of billionaires reminds me of Maoist propaganda.Mao had to be the most intellectual, a great swimmer, etc., but in reality he was a less-than-desirable human being.
Getting rich in this country has nothing to do with wide spread knowledge, in fact it's pretty much the opposite, knowing a lot about one thing and then add some luck.

The fact that we now have a culture that equates wealth with knowledge or even worse wisdom is unfortunate or even more accurately detrimental. That Mr. Khosla knew something about IT can't be denied, that he knows anything about energy becomes apparent the more he speaks. Not saying anyone can't learn, but how this society automatically kowtows to wealth at this point is abhorrent.

That's one great problem we face now, despite the myths of an open economy and venture heroes, our economy is fairly closed. Our entrenched industrial infrastructure has amazing inertia, "markets" follow it, and democracy is broken. Thinking wealth, which is by nature conservative is going to come up with answers and the will is almost, but not quite as ridiculous as thinking the oil companies will develop a new energy system.

What we need are higher efficiency cells at low cost.

I guess my question to that is, does a solar cell exist with those attributes?

If we have high efficiency and cheap cells, then we got the best of both worlds.  But if its an either or sort of thing, then we have a debate centered on economical verus efficient.

I don't have enough information to weigh in just yet, but I certainly have questions about what is feasible both in economic and engineering terms about Solar.  I've been doing more reading about this subject, but I'm a neophyte at best in my knowledge of this area.  That said I'm eager to learn and have been eating up every piece of info I can find on the subject of solar, and wind for that matter.

Read through the article.

The two big techs are Copper Indium Gallium Selenide Thin Film (CIGS FT), a much less energy-intensive thin film process being developed by dozens of companies, and multijunction solar concentrators, based on high-efficiency, extremely high cost Boeing-Spectralab cells developed for satellies, which are heatsunk in small portions and have solar concentrators (either fresnels or mirrors) to narrow down the amount of material needed.  The cells are Boeing-Spectralab, the arrangements are being developed by dozens of smaller companies - the key in cost reduction is that you need a fraction of a percent of the silicon material, and the rest of the cost is a fresnel or mirrors.

The latter is what Australia is spending cash on.  Good for a proof of concept + wider awareness, as the Nanosolar CIGS FT plant will be online in a year or two.

Most people acknowledge that conventional silicon solar is hideously expensive, and building capacity on that model isn't feasable.

--------
As far as efficiency - here in the US we could easily run our grid on 1% efficient modules that cost a dime a watt, as opposed to the current 10% efficient modules that cost $4/watt.  Land is not the issue with solar, we have plenty of desert, parking lot, roof, etc.  It's pretty much solely a cost and (to a much smaller degree) a storage thing.

People interested in low cost solar power should search solar thermal power- such as line focus vapor cycles.  I have not found the source I was looking for, but as I remember, the achieved cost/kw-hr of the line focus vapor cycle was something like 1/4 the best PV costs.  That was about 5 years ago, but I do not think PV has gained - probably lost relative to solar thermal. It's a moving target.

And don't forget stirling.  I have seen engines in the lab that have over 30% thermal efficiency with projected prices about $200/kw.  No, you can't buy them yet, but people are working to get them out there, and the job is a lot simpler than PV, that's for sure.  After all, stirlings are just iron, like IC engines- no magic, no quantum mechanics, required. Just plain old auto mechancs will do, but leave the grease back on the bench.

Can you point me to any stirling engines that the average guy can go out and buy today?  

I have been looking and I can't find anything other than little models for demonstration or a million dollar commercial endevor.

Are there ANY that work and an average person can buy?

No. and that's a damn shame.  You can buy super good prototypes for huge  amounts ($50-100K), and if you are NASA or the military, you can get highly satisfactory space power things of the kind you find on Sunpower.com or Infinia.com.  Or you can buy a submarine auxiliary power unit from Kokums in Sweden.

Reason not in hardware store- nobody with big bucks has seen fit to spend on a factory to make these things at a commercial price, since they are intrinsically more expensive than IC engines (heat exchangers have to use stainless steel or better), and so far, nobody seems to think they have enough advantage (very quiet, last a long time, burn anything, run on solar, etc) to overcome the price differential.

Every home heating system should have one putting out a kilowatt or two of grid grade AC, along with the heat.  Every electric car could have one burning a bit of propane for heat and a little on board charging,  Every reefer truck could have one burning diesel and noiselessly cooling the load of beef, and so on.

But, with oil now more expensive, things might change.  Maybe.

My opinion- classic case of myopia, inertia, incompetence, ignorance, faddism,  on part of money people. Cripes! look at the billiabucks they throw on fuel cells, hydrogen, ethanol, PV, and whatnot, when stirlings are trivially simple in comparison.

BTW-crank stirlings have big reliability problems.   Free pistons work very long- no lube, no wear. That's why NASA flies free pistons.

....My opinion- classic case of myopia, inertia, incompetence, ignorance, faddism,  on part of money people. Cripes! look at the billiabucks they throw on fuel cells, hydrogen, ethanol, PV, and whatnot, when stirlings are trivially simple in comparison....

It appears to be by design: Maybe the omnipotent Oil Interests (KSA, Integrateds, Drillers, Refiners, Autos, ....). The most money they are throwing is at Fuel Cells and Hydrogen and we know that that path is Thermodynamically not feasible. They are not going to defeat the second law of thermodynamics (ChEs and MechEs should understand). Some professor pointed out as such in a letter to the editor about 12-18 months ago in Chemical Engineering Progress (AIChE monthly magazine) in response to a nonsensical article from some fellow from the DOE. The DOE guys response was again nonsense.

Therefore throw money at something that YOU KNOW is a dud and will not threaten the fossil fuel franchise. The only problem here is that the world is not America-centric to the same extent and some other places that may not have the same access to Oil will commercialize something else. They did kill permanently that Fuel Cell/Hydrogen conference in Switzerland a few months ago - with the organizers saying that thermodynamics said that it would never work.

The silver lining is that since Fuel Cells and Hydrogen are being pushed institutionally and by GM in the states maybe there is still Oil available for another 15-20 years. What do you think RR ;-)
Maybe I can get another big guzzler and barrel down I-95 some more.

nobody with big bucks has seen fit to spend on a factory to make [stirling engines] at a commercial price, since they are intrinsically more expensive than IC engines

We should add to that about how Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) cheat on the economics front through the magic of the unaccounted-for "externalities".

Every heat engine has to exhaust some of its heat into the ambient.

ICE's do it by belching noxious hot gases right into the atmosphere.

Stirlings have a self-contained working fluid that nevers gets dumped into the atmosphere. But still the Stirling must include a means for exhausting its outflowing heat. In the schematics they show it as the "cold" connection or the "heat sink". In reality it is an expensive radiator --not equivalent to the engine-block cooling radiator of a water-cooled ICE. Roughly 50% of the heat dump of an ICE comes out its tail pipe --at no "cost". That's where they cheat. That's where the claim about being inexpensive is a lie. Inexpensive to whom? Not to the young child nearby who is coughing with asthama.

All true. But to balance this doom-gloom, I have to admit having a lot of fun working toward my wood stove stirling.  So far, so good, altho very very slow.  But it will be a winner when done, by golly!  No IC can compete.  Takes any kind of plant matter and very quietly turns it into about a kilowatt of electric power -and will last longer than the wood stove- or me.

Of course, my real dream is to do the same with farm tractors, so they burn straw or whatever instead of diesel- or biodiesel.

I think you get about 15 times as much energy from burning the whole corn plant than you get from taking only the corn and laboriously turning it into ethanol.  Of course you would be a fool to burn corn plants when you could burn switchgrass or all the cellulose that goes to the city dump.

Opportunities, Opportunities, but where does all the money go?  Hydrogen!  Gimme another shot of that there ethanol, please.

Maybe you can join forces with RR (see his 10/26 post for personal cellulose reactor) and apply for a patent for this zero net emissions innovation.

Surely our government of The People and FOR The People will give you Grant money for developing this cellulosic stirling system?

I have to say it was a shock to read RR's big idea and think " Holy cow, he is describing a wood stove". with the further unhappy thought that I or somebody was gonna have to let him in on the awful facts about wood stoves being around since at least when we split from the bloody brits.  Joke was on me.  What a relief!

Sure, you would think it would be easy to get money for this great combo- stirling + wood stove.  People have been trying for about 40 years, to my knowledge.  So far, no go.
reasons- stove smoked, engine made bad noises, controls too complex, money man died, company bought out, somebody had a patent, somebody went bonkers, on and on.  In any combination and permutation.

Don't forget that concentrating collectors lose lots more capacity on cloudy days than the other type.  That can have a big effect, really big, in areas where cloud cover is common.
>As far as efficiency - here in the US we could easily run our grid on 1% efficient modules that cost a dime a watt, as opposed to the current 10% efficient modules that cost $4/watt.

Its more than just land. It would be the infrastructure required to handle them all, and a method to isolate and identify damaged or faulty panels. How much materials will be require to make them weather resistant and cement them to the ground? This will require a sifnificant amounts of metals, plastics and other building materials.

>The two big techs are Copper Indium Gallium Selenide Thin Film (CIGS FT), a much less energy-intensive thin film process being developed by dozens of companies

Indium and Gallium are not cheap. While the panels may only require minute amounts, any large scale production is going to require considerable amounts. Addition mining, smelting, purification is going to create a significant amount of pollition, which much of it is some what water soluable and extremely toxic.

As production rises the cost advantages will dimmish as the cost of the input materials rise from increased demand. Any practical large scale development of PV systems would need to be based upon organic materials, since the the raw materials are extremely abundant, renewable, and less likely to create large amounts of toxic waste.

>which are heatsunk in small portions and have solar concentrators (either fresnels or mirrors) to narrow down the amount of material needed

What about the materials to manufacture all those lenses? Glass production is energy intensive, and plastics need a source of natural gas or oil as a feedstock. How do they all get cleaned? Maybe by importing a few million latin americans armed with squeegies? (Have squeegee, will travel!)

Before any money is spent on Mega/Giga Watt PV systems, we should invest money on wind which has a far better EROI, lower maintaince, production, and infrastruture costs than PV systems. Wind technology is also available today. We don't need to wait five to ten years before new low cost PV cells can be mass produced. Wind farms can be built offshore near densely populated areas where the power is needed most, and it would have no impact on land use. We probably don't even need to subsidy wind energy since the major reason holding back large scale development of Wind power systems is NIMBY. Its cheaper to add wind than to build and fuel a gas or cold fired plant and its a proven technology.

Although both PV and wind have a significant flaw: they don't produce energy when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing. They both need to backed with a storage system (perferably using hydroelectric - ie store excess energy by pumping water into a reservor).

Finally electric power generation is a tiny tip of the problem, much as comparing a pimple to a large brain tumor. Figuring out how to feed, clothe and shelter 300 million americans when oil and gas imports to the US vanish, and depleted mid-western aquifiers drop to a trickle, should be dealt with first. These issues may be less than a decade away from happening and will require several decades to address.

A lot of progress is being made in Photovoltaics.  Unfortunately it is possible that in the States coal may be cheaper & more convenient for a long time. Therefore 250 billion tonnes of coal may have to go up in smoke before PV comes on in a big way.
Yes, and what the hell is kiloWatts PER hour? Doesn't he mean kilowatts?

LA Times car section today referred to a battery, which it rated in terms of kilowatts! (Batteries store energy measured in joules or kilowatt-hours or; kilowatts measure power)

The electric bill still charges you for KWH.  It's the same as 'KW per Hour'.  Batteries get this or 'AmpHour' ratings, though it's a little wiggly, as you incur charging, storage and line losses, so you don't usually get out what the label says you will.
It is more akin to kilowatts x hours.

KW is 1000 J/s  (you are generatingor using 1000 Joules every second if your generator or load has a rating of 1 KW). If you were to do that for 1 hour that would be 1KWH. Since KW is in J/s use 3600 seconds for 1 hour.

Therefore
KWH = 1000 (J/s) * 3600 (s)
    = 3.6 million joules of energy.

Joules are the official SI units for energy, and serve the same function as BTU in America (BTU is British Thermal Unit but the Brits have stopped using that unit and use Joules)

I can't believe how persistent this "kilowatts per hour" thing is on TOD!  I keep wondering what sort of little image or parable would get it straight in  people's heads.

Maybe this.  Think of yourself on a pedal machine connected to a generator, a wattmeter and a light bulb ( actually ten 100 watt light bulbs).  The slave master cracks the whip and you are off.  You crank like a madman for a second or two and just barely get the wattmeter to read one kilowatt, and all the lights light up brightly. Then you are dead.  The slavemaster whaps you over the back with his whip, but no go, you are totally done, collapsed on the floor. But you have generated a kilowatt-- for a second.  That's it. One kilowatt second.

After you are allowed to rest for an hour and dunked in gatoraid, you are ready to go again.  Back up on that crank! Krak- now go!.  You go for another second, and you are totally wiped out again. but you have generated your kilowatt for that hour and can go back to the gatoraid.!  

So, keep it up, One kilowatt per hour, god, what a life.  Where's my whip?

I think it would be much more effective to explain to people that the wording is off. 'kilowatt per hour' is incorrect because it means kw/h. What people really mean is 'kilowatt for an hour' or kw*h. This is the really important distinction. It can be easily taught with by saying 'you plug in your 1000 watt light bulb for an hour'. I realise that some people might not catch the distinction, but it will take less time than the story about the slave pedaler.
Yes, I see the distinction, and the point is taken.  I guess it makes sense enough to me that I don't catch the other way the phrase could be read, or how the meaning is assumed from inadequate language.  Still, I don't find anyone so confused about it that it can't be cleared up very easily.

I had an Irish girlfriend who just hated it when yanks would say,  'It's Quarter of Three..'..  We know what we mean, even if the imperfect idioms don't always satisfy the literal-minded.