198 comments on DrumBeat: October 28, 2006
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198 comments on DrumBeat: October 28, 2006
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GAIA Host Collective
If we left, they would go on killing each other, just as they have done for the last twelve hundred years, until one of them got the upper hand, became an absolute dictator, and the killing would then be stopped. Well, it would be stopped except for the occasional execution or village massacure of course.
In that world death is a way of life.
(Is that an oxymoron or what?)
Ron Patterson
But I'd agree you (and we) shouldn't be participating in it - its just a shame we started it in the first place.
I'd also note the criticism you make of "that world" apply equally to us in the west as well - in fact I think we've probably spent a lot more time killing each other over the last 1200 years than they have...
To be fair to the Iraqis it is worth pointing out that
some aspects of ethnic tension and the civil war are a direct result of Western policies that led to the formation of present day Iraq.
A brief reveiw from Wiki:
"Iraq was carved out of the Ottoman Empire by the French and British as agreed in the Sykes-Picot Agreement. On 11 November 1920 it became a League of Nations mandate under British control with the name "State of Iraq".
The British government laid out the political and constitutional framework for Iraq's government. Britain imposed a Hâshimite monarchy on Iraq and defined the territorial limits of Iraq without taking into account the aspirations of the different ethnic and religious groups in the country, in particular those of the Kurds to the north. Britain had to put down a major revolt against its policies between 1920 and 1922. During the revolt, Britain used phosphorus bombs against Kurdish villagers. Legal experts consider phosphorus bombs chemical weapons."
So much for all the railing against Saddam gassing the Kurds to put them in their place.
Although did the British have bombers in 1920-22?
Wikipedia is written by anyone with an internet hookup. Lots of great information marbled with disinformation and mistakes.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200511/s1508598.htm
here is an article on WP use.
They had these aircraft before 1918.
I've read accounts of the Brits experimenting with bomb throwers in 1914 (and they were very pleased with the results). I have no idea how the Brits delivered whatever chemical weapons they may have used, but it doesn't seem like planes were necessary to accomplish the task.
Winston Churchill was actually behind the exercise, which has led plenty of people to compare Saddam to Churchill...
While you can doubt Wikipedia, it is no different to any other publication at the end of the day - history is rewritten again and again - and biased reporting and propaganda are just as likely to appear in the Washington Times or on Fox News (or Prensa Latina or the World Socialist website if you want to go the other way) as they are on Wikipedia (which at least tries to be objective and has accompanying debate and citations with each article).
Here's some history from a Kurdish web site, who presumably don't have any ideological axe to grind with the British nowadays.
Presumably the Chomsky book has a whole lot of citations if he follows his normal practice.
You can find plenty more on the topic at Google.
There was a Bremner, Bird and Fortune program called "Between Iraq and a Hard Place" several years ago where it compared 1920's British policy to Iraq and the 2000's US policy to Iraq. Very funny and very sad at the same time. A very British perspective on Iraq.
The reality is you don't know how 'those' people would act after the Roman Legions decide to high tail it back to the Circus Maximus. 'Those' people might just turn into Abu Dhabi, or Pre-Israel Lebanon, or Tunisia. Please, please reconsider before generalized smearing... or perhaps just stick to energy issues
No one, to my way of thinking, is smearing anyone. I lived with the Arabs for five years; I know how they think. I lived in an area where the Shiites were in the majority but where the Sunnis held all the power. Only the iron hand of the Monarchy kept them from going at each other's throats.
The Sunnis and the Shiites have been killing each other for twelve hundred years. If you don't know that much then you just don't know shit about the Islam do you? And pointing out that little fact is not smearing anyone. So if you cannot speak with knowledge as to what the hell you are talking about, then it would be best that you just kept silent.
And my original post had everything to do with energy. It was all about the Chinese taking over Iraqi oil fields.
Ron Patterson
But we must remember that Iraq was consciously gerrymandered by Britain under Churchill to keep the oil provinces together, and placed under a Hashemite who had fought with TE Lawrence, and then lost his homeland (mecca and medina) to the Sau'dis.
The Hashemites were sunni, of course, and were foreigners to the Iraqis, but propping up the continution of minority Sunni rule served British purposes. And that rule had to be very harsh (a la Saddam) to keep it from fragmenting.
Still, the way Bush approached the situation was remarkable for its stupidity. Ignoring the advice of generals, state department, experts, and his own father, he not only knocked over Saddam, but he spent a leisurely first year destroying all elements of government institutions, including completely erasing the military and hunting down all government officials.
Complete chaos was the entirely predictable result.
It is possible that the present outcome would have happened anyway, but we will never know.
It is said that historians can make the outcome of any event seem preordained, but that doesn't make it so. If Iraq had been turned over the UN; if the US military had some training in peacekeeping (instead of shooting demonstrators); if neighboring countries had been drawn into discussions about how to proceed; if state department experts hadn't been systematically blackballed by the department of defense -- if Rumsfeld had followed the joint chiefs of staff recommendation to use 400,000 troops and quell looting -- it is possible that things might have gone differently, and it is possible that events might not be as horrid as they are now.
Unfortunately, the situation has become intolerable. After the Republicans get their asses kicked on November 7th, there will be a huge effort to get US forces out of Iraq. And since American forces are all that is holding off all out civil war and ethnic cleansing, that bodes ill for Iraq and the Middle East.
* * * * *
Here at TOD we like to look at graphs and charts, examining bottom up and top down approaches, to get a quantitative feel for how Peak Oil will play out. However, the fallout from Bush's disastrous war will likely blindside these endeavors.
It is like meticulously planning how much lumber can be harvested from a forest -- while hot summer winds are fanning a forest fire that threatens to destroy the entire forest.
These deals require the foreign partner to make a sole risk investment in wells and facilities, in exchange for a priority share of incremental production until the capital investment is paid back, usually at LIBOR+1 or 2 or something equally derisory. After that it's strictly cost recovery plus whatever sliver of profit the lowest bidder is prepared to accept, based on their own oil price projections.
Rates of return are typically in single digits. It's OK business, but not spectacular. You can make more money drilling infills in the Supermajors' discard reservoirs in the NOrth Sea, and nobody is shooting at you there. >90% of the value, and none of the risk, goes to the host government. In exchange, CNOOC or Sinopec get to put their logo on the tank farm gate. Golly gee.
And you think China, drilling and dodging bullets in Iraq will be doing the same thing as Shell is doing in Venezuela? Wow! By what logic did you come to that conclusion. Shell, and the other oil companies are in Bolivia, Venezuela, or wherever, because they are in the oil business and wish to make a profit for their shareholders. China, Mr. Underdog, does not have shareholders.
China will not be in Iraq, getting their ass shot off, in order to make sure the U.S. and the rest of the world has enough oil. And neither are they there in order to make a profit for China, or anyone in China. China is trying to make deals with Iraq, with Venezuela, and with anyone else they can deal with, for one reason and one reason only. They wish to insure that they will have oil when the things get tough.
Ron Patterson
Would you care to remind me how that worked out again?
Maybe I should have been more explicit. The logic here was that Venezuela and Bolivia - specifically - are undertaking a creeping expropriation of the FOCs' fixed assets, claiming a share of the economic rent that brings the FOCs' rate of return down to corporate bond levels, and/or reasserting the right to market their own hydrocarbons. Not for the first time in their history, of course; these things tend to come in cycles.
Based on your first-hand knowledge of the Middle East, what aspect of Arab culture is going to protect the Chinese from a similar fate at some point in the future? Won't all their agreements with the present lot be just as useless as the ones that the British had back in the 1920s? OK, maybe it won't be the Americans next time, but the Indians are waiting in line...
Absolutely nothing will make the Iraqis keep their word. Well, perhaps the threat of hoards of Chinese invading them, or the nuclear threat? But I don't think either of those options are all that likely. But there is always that possibility. And if resource wars are truly in our future, who knows?
Of course the Chinease can only gamble here, and hope that Iraq will honor any agreement. Not bloody likely, but what have they to lose?
Ron Patterson
I have lived with Christians for 63 years. I know how they think; that is, in fact, my profession. I find that The Iron Hand of the Monarchy has been perfectly suited to driving them to kill millions of each other. In the absence of Monarchy, they seem to get along just fine. Most of the time.
Is there a racial difference? Is it genetic, or epigenetic?
In fact, until the Western Monarchists arrived, the Arabs didn't have Monarchs. And they weren't much interested in New York, or anywhere else, except to trade and get slaves. Of course, that was before OIL. http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7374585792978336967
NeverLNG, I haven't a clue as to what you are talking about. What Iron Hand drove whom? Of course Monarchs have driven people to kill. But if you are a student of history then you know Monarchs, historically, have always ruled with an iron hand. And that iron hand has kept dynasties in power for hundreds of years. Remember, Mr. NeverLNG, we were talking about the peace in Saudi Arabia. And there, they are not killing each other precisely because of the Monarchy.
Huh? What in the hell are you talking about? Do you mean between Christians and Arabs? Hell, I would guess that it is cultural.
Surely you jest. Mesopotamia, as well as the rest of the Arab world has had Monarchs since at least a thousand years before Hammurabi.
Ron Patterson
That comment is not worthy of a reply. Just because they have been bound and tortured, you suggest that this, by definition, means that they were bound and tortured by order of, a US diplomat.
Let me remind you that both Shiites and Sunnis have been found to have been bound and tortured. Are you suggesting that Negroponte was responsible for both? And how about the suicide bombers were under the command of Negroponte as well? Or perhaps he was just responsible for the car bombs, set off remotely with no suicide involved?
Please explain to me, Mr. Sceptical, exactly why one of Mr. Bush's diplomats would wish to make his boss look so very stupid by making the war go so very bad. God knows Bush does not need any help in looking stupid. But some of his critics look far stupider in the suggestions they make.
Ron Patterson
If you read between the lines of most reports of massacres and torture in Baghdad with that idea in mind, you might find it becomes pretty obvious...
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0110/dailyUpdate.html
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6802629/site/newsweek/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/4209595.stm
http://www.google.com.au/search?q=salvador+option