SAT - thanks for that.  Since I started full time contributing at TOD I just don't have time to follow Drumbeat and most of the other chat.  I got about six posts under prep right now - its a lot of work - so I appreciate you keeping me posted.

I always feel most comfortable combining charts with what is going on in the real world and here's my take on that for what it is worth:

• Underlying strength of oil price is due to narrow / tight spare capacity, and my feeling is that is here to stay - peak oil.

• Hurricanes last year, and expectation of more hurricanes this year led to the price getting over extended - though I didn't understand that at the time.

• >>$60 is burning off demand in some developing countries, who in a few years time will no longer be importing any oil, but will be exporting increasing amounts of violence.

• I suspect some market manipulation ahead of US elections, and wonder if your mid-November date was not in part based on resumption of normal business once the election is out of the way.

• These factors, combined with lack of huricanes this year are the real world reasons for the decline in oil price.

• Lower prices mean that the poorer countries may re-enter the market.

• Lower prices may also mean capacity destruction in the OECD.  The oil majors, setting budgets as we speak, will be more cautious now than if the oil price were over $80 and heading north.

• So at some point, the price becomes irresistably cheap, bottom is reached and we start again.

• I will post in a few days on Chinese, US and EU demand trends to comapre with LADS export land trends - and I imagine that these two trends are heading in opposite directions - hence the developing world getting squeezed out of the market.

$67 and few cents as I write.

PS - in Boston I saw 2 or three charts of rig count and gas production, US and other parts where it was clear that the battle to maintain production is being lost.  There is little doubt in my mind that a full blown energy crisis is at the door.  If drilling was stopped, production would crater - and that is because all the natural reservoir energy has been used up - oil and gas is no longer pissing out of the ground at 50,000+ boepd / well anywhere.

It took me 5 minutes to track down Dave Cohen and Nate Hagens on the Wenesday evening who both, like me, were dressed in anti-establishment leather jackets and jeans.

It took a further 24 hours to track down my UK editor Chris Vernon - who was wearing a suit - that's what rank and social standing does.

So it is a tricky thing looking for someone when you don't know what they look like and probably don't know their name.

The reviews for the Buckminster put me off a bit to I went a bit up market and stayed at the Hampton on Massachusetes Avenue.  But we were in the bar in front of the Buckminster every evening.  The babes, by the way are part of Dave's sick humour - the ones round our table were much better looking than that.

Cry Wolf will soon get shot - and I will start posting under my real name, Lee Raymond.