147 comments on DrumBeat: October 30, 2006
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147 comments on DrumBeat: October 30, 2006
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Well if the developed world was willing to reduce their GHG per capita emmssions to the global average we might have a chance to address this issue. As it stands, the Chinese farmer who buys his first refrigerator is not the problem. The problem is the Canadian who likes to wear shorts inside when it is -30 below.
And this is the very sad part.
Nothing will be done. Does anyone in their right mind believe the world will suddenly change its way of living because the threat of a warmer world several years, or decades, in the future. I have stated this fact at least one hundred times, people do not respond to dire warnings of coming catastrophies. In fact, people, in general, do not respond to arguments of any kind. They only respond only to events.
For every argument, no matter what the facts and logic behind it, there will always be someone making a counter-argument. People, again, in general, will then believe the argument that offers them the best possible outcome.
When the dramatic results of global warming start to be felt by the nations of the earth, then the tide will start to turn, people will clamor for something to be done. Most of them will ask; "why wasn't something done years ago?"
Well, I just told you why nothing was done years ago, and why nothing will be done until it is way too late.
A very few people look at all arguments and pick the one most logical. Emotion however, is so much stronger than reason. The vast majority of people look at the argument that makes them feel good and safe. All other arguments will then be discounted, without examination, as foolishness. And they will always believe that they are picking the most resonable argument.
Ron Patterson
IMO the outcome of the next decades really depends on how effective is our government and whether there will be real leadership to handle this issue. Don't hold your breath though...
However, the tricky bit is actually achieving the goal of substantial carbon reduction. Taxes (or "price signals" as the givernment likes to call them) are very blunt instruments that cause big problems for the less well-off, especially as many parts of Britain suffer from poorly-insulated houses and little public transport. As George Monbiot argues in his new book "Heat", what is needed is for the public to persuade the government to legislate to forse them (the public) to cut down carbon output. Quite trickly to get people to vote for legislation that will inconvenience a large proportion of them! As the saying goes '"less" is a four-letter word".
Taxing people to change the world hits the low and middle income demographic. If you live in Richmond, then a few quid more on a chelsea tractor wont bite. (especially if you set your own pay)
If you own a villa in southern France, a few bob on your cheap flight wont hurt. Hell it will keep the great unwashed at home, where they should be: Cleaning our first house so it is nice n tidy when we get back
Nope. Hate to say this as a life long libertine and free market capitalist, GW-PO is bigger than all of us.
It is time to start BANNING STUFF BY LAW unless it is really vital. Who needs a chelsea tractor? Who needs a second home in France? Who needs aspirational consumerism?
Problem is, who will dare stand up and say this? Especially when a looming minority of Chinese and Indian Middle Class are poised to get there share of aspirational consumerism.
Naah. It just gets worse. Nobody will vote for national penury, nobody will stop the economic arms race if there is a chance that another nation will overtake and devour our nation.
We just are not wired that way. What made us successful as a species in the trial of the ice ages is now working against us:
Greed for fats and sweet honey; Tribalism,bonding and social organisation; tool making skills; sheer brain power; capacity for abstract thought;planning and mapping.
Great stuff when there are less than 2 million clever monkeys on planet. ''Gives you a nice edge'' - to missquote Oddball.
Its all a little bit problematic when there are 6.5 billion (and counting)clever monkeys on the planet.
We are fucked.
But before we are finally fucked, just watch the alpha-monkeys suck even more tax out of us.
We are victims of our own success (a trite way of describing overshoot).
Or
Too clever by 'alf.
Without it I don't find carbon tax to be that good idea at all - to continue the analogy, it is known that sometimes the pain itself can kill the patient.
Otherwise, it looks and is just another way to "redistibute the wealth" or another little socialist/communist program.
The rich as a percentage of people do not make up the bulk of polution from personal activities. It is the masses of which the bulk are lower and middle classes with their 2+ cars(yes even the poor in America own multiple cars) AC/heated homes and 2+ TVs, Appliances, etc that the real problem resides in.
But then taxing the rich and giving a pass to the poor has been a social goal of the liberals for a long time, and if they can meld PO and GW into furthering this goal, all the better.
No, if you are serious about reducing energy usage, you make it hurt for the greatest number of people so that the greatest number of people reduce or stop using that energy. Compensation merely prolongs the amount of time they will use that energy.
I am proposing to progressively tax the exessive consumption. Thus the tax will not be tailored for any social group, but will be against the fossil fuel consumption itself, which approach when you think of it makes the most sense. We have already such taxes: for example are taxes on alcohol and tobacco against poor people (assuming lower classes drink and smoke more)? I don't think so. They are against the consumption of these products itself. A milioneirre that doesn't drink, smoke, and drives a hybrid may find himself paying much less taxes then a poor suburban family that drives SUVs.
We as a society can easily agree on some levels of consumption which are essential for the basic needs, and make people progressively pay for the extra. I see this most easily implemented using tax rebates or something like it.
Lessoning the effect for anyone however is a mistake. It needs to hurt, and needs to hurt as many as possible so as to curb usage of X product.
A straight tax on fuel is fine. It hurts everyone equally from a usage standpoint. Don't want to be hurt? Stop drinking, smoking, or putting around in your car.
As for what to do with that tax money in regards to energy, I'm all for using it to build alternative transit systems and renewable energy. In a sense I suppose this is "recompensation" but its a public return not an individual return and thus the public, whether upper, middle, or lower class get to all see the benefit.
Or do you have another way that wouldn't involve tax rebates to the poor or making the tax have no teeth?
Seems like an either or situation to me.
If we do not provide a way to guarantee covering the basic needs like heating, lighting, using mass transit etc. without penalising them we are basically promoting a 19th century style capitalism. We need to come up with some sort of combination between penalising taxes (alcohol&tabacco) and incomme tax.
Say Green Taxes collect £12bn pa.
60 million people in the UK.
Mail them a £200 cheque per person every January 1st.
This is more or less what Alaska does (shares its windfall oil and gas tax) via a personal credit.
The very poor will be better off than they are now. Everyone who emits less than the average amount of CO2 in a year will be better off than they are now.
The effect on individuals would be less than the effects of a big change in the exchange rate, or losing their job, or a big change in energy prices (another form of 'tax' that we all pay).
In the case of the UK, that is about £200/tonne of Carbon emitted, or £56/tonne of CO2. Some activities (long haul flights to Australia) will get a lot more expensive.
(the Stern report reckons the long term cost of CO2 is c. £85 or about £312/tonne Carbon emitted).
Owning a high CO2 car (say 240gm/km v. 120gm/km which is the most economical Peugeot diesels) would cost about £1200 more pa (on 10k km pa driving).
then I think they will only work (and maximise GDP) if the principle is one of revenue neutrality.
The ideal rebate would be to reduce the employer contribution to National Insurance. Basically we would be reducing about the worst tax in the UK tax system (a tax on employing people which therefore lowers employment, output and investment). Employment would rise, wages would rise, returns on capital and investment would rise-- the proportions depend on each industry and its competitive conditions.
Politically we could probably make the pill palatable by splitting the take equally between NI for employer and employee. Even the lowly paid pay NI, whereas a reduction in income tax would benefit the well off by much more.
To the extent that Green taxes led to increases in prices, those on state support would be compensated by the increase in the CPI. One might have to have specific programmes eg for fuel poverty.
Sadly governments dislike hypothecated taxation (ie a tax tied to a purpose) and they really dislike revenue neutral commitments!
[rant warning]
Maybe it is time for them to change what they like or dislike, if it is true that our leadership acknowledges GW as a serious problem. I strongly doubt that indeed. I'm not sure at what point the call for a "smaller government" translated in a call for a "passive government" but to me it looks like the roots of the current inaction lie somewhere around that point.
The poor (the truly poor) will sell their permits, and be richer. The well off will buy the permits they need.
Politically the dynamite will be in the middle classes because they will have to make tradeoffs.
This is all about the economic aspirations of the middle classes. Say the 5th-80th deciles of the British population.
And what you miss is that governments are just people too. Here in the US of A, the government is one of the main obsticles to doing anything about global warming. They have their shills that are actually making the very bad arguments, tha arguments that people just love to believe.
Governments, all over the world will do what is in their best interest. Not in the best interest of future generations but their own needs of the moment. Do you actually see India or China putting serious pressures on industry to cut greenhouse emissions? That would mean burning less coal and coal is the lifeblood of those two countries.
Remember, the mass of mankind, and this means governments as well, are ruled by the needs of the moment. Homo sapiens are emotional beings first and reasoning second. They will believe what is most desirable for them to believe and they live in a democracy, they will vote in the most optimistic, feel good cantidates. They want a government that assures them that all is well with the world. And by God that is the kind of government they will have. All Cassandras will be kicked out on their ass.
Ron Patterson
Empires have a way to make people do what they don't want to. A key attribute of that type of government which is missing in Democratic style governments.
Thus, is Empire a better form(or at least a potentially more capable form) of government than Democracies, in their various configurations in regards to enforcing "green" policies?
People keep saying Government will need to step in and do something but in the case of Democracies the government IS the very people who don't want to change until its too late.
And if the Democracies are not going to change until its too late, those government which could autocratically enforce new rules (like China) are not going to, because to do so would be to give up an economic/military advantage.
I guess my concern with all the people's statements saying government intervention is needed, don't realize that to be asking for that is to be asking for autocratic or near-autocratic enforcement. Hence that brings us right back to square one, where the best we can offer is an ARGUMENT and use that argument to win people to our view point... preferrably before its too late, but then that is the tough part.
Thinking of China as autocracy is oversiplification. A good part of their reasons are similar to ours. Their party leaders and people in charge are also humans, have kids, move within other people etc. They can not easily come up with some governing decision which is against the majority.
Hence that brings us right back to square one, where the best we can offer is an ARGUMENT and use that argument to win people to our view point...
I strongly disagree with this strategy. Humans are largely inert and egoistic animals. We will not accept changes, spare sacrifices voluntarily. If you expect to persuade people to make them and then to vote for people to implement them, then prepare for a huge wait. What we need is something in the middle - a autocrative leadership (think Winston Churchil, or maybe Putin from todays politics) coupled with a strong campaign (which we are more or less having already). It will not work without either one of these elements.
The difference is that I don't think it makes fighting GW a [completely] lost cause. It is probably pretty futile exercise now, and for the next few years or decades, but when things become really hot (literally) at least we are going to have some experience and [maybe] we will be able to soften the blow. I don't think that anybody has enough information or forecasting capabilities to actually know whether we will, but it is still a good thing to work for.
But still, there have been times in history when we as species have seem to be capable to commit to personal sacrifices in the name of the common good. Whether we will do it this time - personally I doubt it. I simply don't want to give up on the fight for it.
Tony Verbalis
The mystery to me is how some of us have evolved differently. There are some of us who have taken voluntary action at significant expense to cut our carbon consumption even though we know that political action is necessary to force change on a mass scale. We can only hope we are helping to point the way, but I will admit that it is probably a vain hope. Still we soldier on regardless.
But back to the point that some of us have evolved differently. Just because we are emotional beings does not mean we can not use reason to figure out what the problems are and what needs to be done. I don't believe what is necessarily desirable to believe unless you believe that I find it desirable to suffer. But why am I different and why are significant numbers of my fellow beings different.
The problem, I think, isn't so much that we are not evolving but that we will not evolve in time to do something about a problem that is reaching the tipping point to cause it to run away beyond control. Our society, for example, has evolved to the point that we are a much less racist society than we were 40 years ago and we are much more respectful to women. But we don't have 40 years.
Tstreet, the word "we" covers a lot of territory. Just who are you talking about when you use the pronoun "we"? Do you mean yourself and perhaps a few academics that have studied the problem? If so, then you are correct. But do you mean the majority of humankind? If so, then your conclusions are entirely incorrect. We are emotional beings and our emotion, for most people anyway, determines which argument we accept and which we reject. Realizing of course that any good debater can often make the most absurd argument seem reasonable.
T, we are all different. Any human characteristic is found in variable degrees in everyone. An example. (All figures in this example are not factual but used only to make a point.) Say the average height of the European male is five feet ten inches. And say the average difference in height between any two people picked at random is two inches. Then two inches would be what is called "one standard deviation"
There are other definitions for "standard deviation" but the one above is by far the most easy to understand. That is, it is the average difference between any two individuals, picked at random from the total population. And it can be applied to any characteristic.
From this we could form a bell curve of the height of all European males. Five feet ten would be the average and at the peak of the bell curve. Sixty eight percent of all European males would be within one standard deviation of five feet ten. That is, sixty eight percent of all European males would be between five feet eight and six feet tall, ninety six percent would fall within two standard deviations, either side of the mean and ninety nine percent would fall within three standard deviations of the mean. That would be between five feet four and six feet four, if two inches were truly one standard deviation in the height of European males. But don't count on that figures, two inches and five feet ten, as being correct because I just pulled those figures out of the air. But the point is made, whatever the true figure for height and whatever the true figure for one standard deviation, 99 percent would fall within three standard deviations of the mean.
Just as a bell curve and standard deviations can be applied to height, or any other characteristic, human or otherwise, it can also be applied to such things as "propensity to decide arguments on emotion." Most people, the mean, would use reason along with emotion to make decisions. There would be people on both side of the curve. Though the center of the curve, the mean, would give more weight to emotion than reason, more reason would come into play as you moved to one side of the curve and more emotion as you moved to the other. As you approched one extreme side of the bell curve, people would be extremely rational, in their decision making, and extremely emotional on the other.
And one more very important point. Since people generally seek as friends, others who think like they do, then it is likely that most of your close friends are more rational than emotional, provided of course that this is they you make decisions.
This natural variation, by the way, found in both plants and animals, is what makes evolution possible.
Ron Patterson
If this was a more political and less serious thread, this is where I would point out that my ass's name is being taken in vain, and that those rats be weasels. But PO and GW are serous subjects, so I won't.
Rat in a drain ditch
Caught on a limb
You know better but
I know him
Like I told you
What I said
Steal your face
right off you head
Rodney DangerRat
any serious attempt at stopping climate change will not work because of this.
As much as you know I disagree with you on many things you are so sensible here. Yhe one thing you are perhaps missing is that for some (some) in Europe global warming is present now. Try going to weather.com and pulling the chart of daily temps for London this October. Or Warsaw. Or Geneva. Anyone living there knows global warming has arrived.
Some know it. As opposed to those who are just enjoying the mild weather. Problem is we are locked in for decades even if (if) those who are aware took action now.
Ron Patterson