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71 comments on DrumBeat: October 4, 2006

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dipchip on October 4, 2006 - 10:56am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Darwin:  To continue from yesterday, first let me say, I share much of my time with my Wife, and my fishing poles, and the garden. I must also share time at the computer station with my Wife, and she has become a little testie lately over the time I spend reading TOD.  Darwinism is more or less my religion, however all religions share differing ideas, consider the Shia and Sunni. As far as PO, I consider the slow squeeze the most likely to evolve. I have often been accused of being wrong and silly for most of my life, however many of those silly ideas are currently being used in the search for more oil. Many times I have been proven wrong, but by facts and time not opinions. I will concede one reason that the KSA may have supported Bush, they considered him the least competent and most likely to fail, however I still believe demand drove KSA production. I am also well aware of Saudi history, geology, geography, population growth, and the history concerning FDR and the American oil Co's. The leading nation in the Middle East is that nation with the greatest potential to increase oil production, increase their literacy and intellect, and acquire western arms. IMO if Bush were to succeed  in Iraq, all of the needs for Saudi relations with the US would shift to Iraq. BTW both nations have a pop. of 26 million and the literacy rate of Saudi is nearly double that of Iraq 78% vs 40%.

Shia are a minority in Saudi Arabia, probably constituting about 5 percent of the total population, their number being estimated from a low of 200,000 to as many as 1 million. Shia are concentrated primarily in the Eastern Province, where they constituted perhaps 33 percent of the population, being concentrated in the oases of Qatif and Al Ahsa. Saudi Shia belong to the sect of the Twelvers, the same sect to which the Shia of Iran and Bahrain belong. The Twelvers believe that the leadership of the Muslim community rightfully belongs to the descendants of Ali, the son-in-law of the Prophet, through Ali's son Husayn. There were twelve such rightful rulers, known as Imams, the last of whom, according to the Twelvers, did not die but went into hiding in the ninth century, to return in the fullness of time as the messiah (mahdi) to create the just and perfect Muslim society.

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Darwinian on October 4, 2006 - 12:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Dipchip, you have strange ideas as to what our the US's interest in Saudi Arabia and I simply am not going to argue with them. Yes, we are very much interested in the oil in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, along with the oil everywhere else in the world. Saudi Arabia is very stable, albeit because of the iron hand of the monarchy. The US would very much like to keep it that way.

I simply do not agree with you about Iraq. They could increase their oil production but nothing like the numbers you seem to suggest.

You wrote:

Shia are a minority in Saudi Arabia, probably constituting about 5 percent of the total population, their number being estimated from a low of 200,000 to as many as 1 million.

200,000? That is so far off it is silly. The Shiite population of Saudi Arabia is today probably around 4 million, virtually all of them in the Eastern Province where they constitute a heavy majority. I lived there for five years working for ARAMCO. Virtually all the management is Sunni and about 60 to 80 percent of the workforce is Shiite. Virtually all promotions to management go to the Sunni because of wasta.

I will not comment on this paticular thread further but I hope to have a lot more to say about Saudi Arabia in the future. The below link was written when the estimated population of Saudi Arabia was 20 million. It is now better than 25 million or more. Both links put the Shiite population at 15%. That is about right but it is about 70 percent in the Eastern Provience where all the oil is. Remember none of the very large cities are located in the Eastern Province. Therefore 3.5 million Shiites located there would constitute an overwhelming majority.

Officially, they do not exist. In reality, however, Saudi Arabia's Shiites account for 15 percent of the kingdom's population of 20 million.
And here:

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wkwillis on October 4, 2006 - 4:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Saudi Shia are only five percent of the total population, but Saudi Shia are twenty percent of the native population and eighty percent of the native population of the area with the oil.
These numbers are what has leaked out of Saudi Arabia and you should treat them with as much respect as you treat their oil reserve estimates. In truth, only the gods know the true numbers.
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wkwillis on October 4, 2006 - 4:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Sorry, I should have read farther along the post before taking up space.
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71 comments on DrumBeat: October 4, 2006

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