For all the negative things said about Yergin and CERA, you've got to admit that this crew is great at packaging.  Their labeling of future energy scenarios as 'Asian Pheonix', Break Point', and Global Fissures' is a fine example of the sort of management consulting cuteness that CEOs can't get enough of. (I suspect they must have hired the guy in the Pentagon who dreams up the inspiring names for our various military operations: e.g., Rolling Thunder, Freedom Sword, etc.)

Having worked for a very well-known management consulting firm about a 100 years ago, I think it is not too much of an exaggeration to describe them as intellectual massage parlors, a chief purpose of which is to make the client feel good about what he is already doing while at the same time giving him the illusion that he is participating in a rigorous objective analysis.  It's not easy to pull this off, and Yergin et al are world-class masters of this art.

No way.  The Pentagon ought to hire a PR guy.  Remember "Operation Infinite Justice"?  Hastily changed to "Enduring Freedom."  Which makes it sound like freedom is something burdonsome and unpleasant, which must be endured.  

They've got a bunch of tin ears there.

As for the CERA report...I actually thought it was remarkably pessimistic.  For them, I mean.

Leanan,

It was changed due to cultural sensitivites.  Only Allah is capable of infinite justice.  One interesting quote from this source (Naval War College Review, Autumn 2002, Vol. LV, No. 4) says,


Western public diplomacy in the Middle East also entails great care in uncharted waters. As an Oxford University social linguist, Clive Holes, has pointed out, the linguistic genius who thought up the original name for the campaign to oust the Taliban, "Operation INFINITE JUSTICE," did a major disservice to the Western goal. The expression was literally and accurately translated into Arabic as adala ghayr mutanahiya connoting an earthly power arrogating to itself the task of divine retribution. Likewise, President George W. Bush's inadvertent and unscripted use of the word crusade gave al-Qa`ida spokesmen--and many others--an opportunity to attack the intentions of Bush and the West.

On another topic, I'm reviewing a PO novel for an old friend.  You would appreciate his treatment (albeit only one  scenario among many possible) of how our very complex, JIT system might unravel when the BTU's / day drop below some critical threshold.

What is that threshold?  How severe will the positive feedback be as one broken economic connection (JIT gloabl parts delivery to a small business, e.g.) causes 2 or more new ruptures, and so on?  Will it look like a slumping process (slow) or a brittle fracturing event (rapid)?

I suppose that the answer to the last is based on one's vantage point.  Also, I'm convinced by WT that the depltion rate, as measured by net exports, will have a strong bearing on the rate of de-complexification (sheesh, what a word!).

Ed

It was changed due to cultural sensitivites.

I know.  Like I said, a bunch of tin ears.  At the very least, you'd think they'd have someone research it before rolling it out.

And remember Dubya announcing his "crusade"?  Oy.

You would appreciate his treatment (albeit only one  scenario among many possible) of how our very complex, JIT system might unravel when the BTU's / day drop below some critical threshold.

I probably would.  I do think that failure, when it comes, will be of the systemic variety.

Like Scotty said, "The more complicated the plumbing, the easier it is to stop up the drain."

oh god that is sad. I'm hopiong the next slogan they come up with translates something along the lines of "closeted queers coming to steal the oil!"
Shut the fuck up. Go have another pill.

Oh! I'm just goofin' - Pretty Boy.

Leanan -

Either I wasn't clear enough, or you take me too literally. The message I was trying to convey is that the naming of Yergin's three energy scenarios is just as BAD as the Pentagon's naming of it's various operations in Iraq and Afganistan.  For some time now, I've been quite amused (and disturbed) by how surreal these names have become.

I don't mind surreal.  But the Bush adminstration's names are just plain bad.  
RE: "you've got to admit that this crew is great at packaging"

Someone once said:

"Advertising may be described as the science of arresting the human intelligence long enough to get money from it."

RE: "Yergin et al are world-class masters of this art"

John Locke (1632-1704):

"How many men have no other ground for their tenets than the supposed honesty or learning, or number of those of the same profession?  As if honest or bookish men could not err, or truth were to be established by vote of the multitude; yet this with most men serves the turn.  If we could but see the secret motives that influenced the men of name and learning in the world, we should not always find that it was the embracing of truth for its own sake that made them espouse the doctrines they owned and maintained."