First, many people on slashdot will favor the "but, dude, we have technology!" argument. Many will not understand the difference between a fossil fuels energy source and their laptop.

Otherwise, TOD makes a winning argument everyday. Unless someone is willing to put the time in to understand the issues or, at least, they are open-minded, there is no way to persuade them. This is merely denial, which is common enough -- whether it is slashdot or Forbes.

But maybe we'll catch a few fish here, heh?

For the others, I always love it when people who don't know shit tell us we're wrong.

While I agree that the devil is in the detail, I would suggest that if you expect to have an impact it is key to be able to overcome that - otherwise you will be sitting like Cassandra as everyone blames oil company gouging for $150 per barrel oil.

To my reading it is an issue of scalability, timelines and %age rates. The assumption is that time exists for handwaving technology solutions to match the threat of decline, and indeed overtake it so that dependence on imports can be reduced. It is difficult for people to get a handle on how much and how fast change would have to come, let alone something like EROEI.

In reality its less about the specifics of the particular technologies - more about levels and rates. Is there a pithy way of capturing how extensive and quick the expansion in a particular technology would need to be to address the problem? For tar sands its easy timelines and rates make it obvious its an also ran as far as solutions go.

Just how tractable is coal-to-liquid fuel in terms of mines, plant and cost? Can people be given a simple way to understand how much has to be done to make 1 mb of oil per day?

Re: Can people be given a simple way to understand how much has to be done to make 1 mb of oil per day?

No.

Hello TODers,

Tell them that one barrel of crude = 25,000 hours of physical labor. One gallon of gasoline = 600 hours of back-breaking labor.  Ask them to shovel dirt for 600 hours to 'discover & recover' one gallon for their vehicles: this will hammer home just how rare & precious FFs really are to detritovore existence.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Some factoids off the top of my head that need checking; South Africa is not an industrial heavyweight but CTL puts it at no. 12 on the list of GHG emitters.  The main SASOL plant is drowning in mountains of solid waste so they jumped at the chance to use piped gas from Mozambique instead of coal to ease the bulk handling problem.
A simple to understand way to save ~1.5 million barrels/day of refined diesel.

  1. Electrify US freight railroads, at least the main lines.  Add back double & triple tracks torn out in the 1960s, 70s, 80s.

  2. Put tolls on the Interstate Highways, like that good Republican Eisenhower wanted to.

The worse Peak Oil gets, the more freight ton-miles will flow on non-oil transportation (perhaps still local delivery via truck, but businesses will move onto or build rail spurs for the competitive advantage).

Together, heavy trucks and railroads use ~2.5 million barrels/day of diesel.  Cut that in half is quite doable.  Cut by 3/4 or 80% over time.

Another easy to understand solution.  Look at Washington DC Metro.  See how much oil it saves (40+% commute by it in DC) and how DC area is beginning to cluster around it.  Miami wants to build the same thing (90% of population within 3 miles of a station) bur it will take them 25 years.  Build it within 5 years and two dozen more like it within ten years.  Streetcars in a hundred US cities & towns, then two hundred.

Save several million more barrels/day.

Simple ?

Best Hopes,

alan

Simple ?

Put tolls on the Interstate Highways, like that good Republican Eisenhower wanted to. Perfect, I wish it could happen. Only way to continue the limited access highway system.
We already pay tolls - it's called gasoline taxes and income taxes!
Maybe we could add a check box and line item to form 1040 for those who feel like they want to pay even more taxes. Me - I have had enough of them.
whatever we pay in tolls or gas-related taxes does not begin to cover the true cost of burning fossil fuels for personal transportation.  it is this type of ignorant ego-centricism that will doom the US, and likely the planet, in the PO future.  we need an ethos of sacrifice for the greater good, or there will be no future, or at least not a good one.  tolls seem logical b/c they have an obvious pay as you go feel; if you use the road you help pay for it, if you don't use it you don't pay for it.  but even tolls do not address the "overhead" costs of fossil fuel usage (cost of GHG and related GW, cost of the military to protect oil resources and maintain stability [as it], etc.) except perhaps to marginally decrease driving by driving up the cost.  tolls, like paying reasonable taxes, should be considered a moral and civic duty, not a penalty.
-PoP
we need an ethos of sacrifice for the greater good, or there will be no future, or at least not a good one.

God, I'd settle for an ethos of sufficiency rather than excess.  Enjoying what you have rather gluttony.  The good news (I think) is we are soo wasteful and gluttonous that if we just take was we need it would make a big difference without ever needing to get to sacrifice.  

Of cource this doesn't apply to the poor countries which are already in states of deprivation.  

While tolls may be a good idea, I think they should be priced according to the fuel efficiency of the car you drive. At least gas taxes have one thing going for them, the amount you pay is directly related to the gas consumed. The question I have is, are trucks really paying fee proportionate to the damage they do to the interstate, including the congestion effects they impose on automobiles?

I-70 through the mountains of Colorado is approaching gridlock even on non ski weekdays. Something has to give, but it does not seem feasible to expand the highway through the mountains.   The economies of all those mountain towns, mostly built up since the introduction of the interstate, are completely dependent upon that highway.  In this case, part of the solution has to be interstate specific. If the gas tax is to be relied upon, there is  no particular disincentive to get out of your car if your destination is say, Vail, coming from Denver.  Since long term solutions like rail won't be available for at least 20 years, wide scale bus transit must occur in order to prevent 24/7, 365 days per year gridlock. Just providing buses, even if subsidized, won't get the job done. Ergo, provide heavily subsidized buses, park and rides,  and impose heavy tolls to get people out of their automobiles.  There will still remain the problem of truck traffic which will have to wait for diversion to rail.

 

are you related to Sam Street?
Gas taxes and car tax (as we have in the UK, an annual license fee by engine size) are crude taxes, in the sense that they do not tax traffic congestion.

The purpose of road tolls is to tax congestion, that is to say the cost you put onto other people by jamming up the road, (and they put on you).

On the subject of overall taxation, UK gas prices are roughly twice American, the entire difference being tax.  

So say our total tax is $4/gal, and yours is $1/gal.

The estimate is that gas taxes and car taxes are about 1/3rd the total cost to society of driving in the UK: cost of accidents, cost of air pollution (that's not including the cost of global warming).

Just a few notes of caution about DC and Metro.

DC has a population of around 600,000, while the surrounding area of what most people would consider a single region easily has over 2 million inhabitants (Fairfax County alone has more than 1 million inhabitants).

The lack of parking in DC over the years as the open spaces available for offices filled in meant that Metro became more practical. This process is perfectly seen in the L'Enfant Plaza complex, which I sort of grew up with. Originally, parking wasn't hard, access to the interstate system was assured, but as time went on, the density of the government/commercial buildings in the area grew, parking became not only more expensive but also unreliable (and DC's parking enforcers are the one truly efficient branch of that city's government).

However, Metro was also being built, and L'Enfant Plaza plugs into the system very well, and with current plans including tying up with VRE - though the freightyards in Arlington are long gone, to make space for malls, condos, and offices. This meant that many of the federal workers at L'Enfant Plaza could use Metro - however, this did not mean they were using Metro alone.

This is where the 40% number has to be treated with a very  skeptical perspective. No hard numbers to contradict it directly, just some comments on how that 40% may have been arrived at, and a data point or two to set against it.

First, DC is no longer the central goal of most federal workers in the region, though federal workers are still the largest single workforce in DC. Second, even Metro's density (apart from new places like the Ballston corridor in Arlington, or old places like Silver Spring, Maryland) is low, and the buses really not that useful. A lot of people drive to parking lots first, then take Metro to DC. When this number of commuter-riders is compared to the population of DC, the number is likely to approach 40%. (The same is definitely true of VRE and MARC and their light rail function.)

Simply look at the number of cars per hour on the Cabin John Bridge (Woodrow Wilson is more distorted by 95 and its north/south traffic) to get a feel of how many people are driving over a single bridge in an hour compared to the capacity of the entire Metro subway system to carry. Then add in a number of other choke points (DC's bridges for Northern Virginia traffic, for example to give a good estimate of commuters compared to Metro riders), and pretty soon, another picture is likely to emerge - that is, the number of cars in Northern Virginia staying within its boundaries is likely larger than the entire number of cars being used by commuters in DC. And of course, road building remains the favored solution to congestion.

The way most people currently live in the DC metro area means a car is essential. A small but growing number of people do live in areas where not having a car makes sense (though these tend to be inadequate places to raise children - no green/open space at all, for example), but in general, most people consider a car indispensable to how the live, and feel that keeping the car is normal, while changing the way they live is unacceptable - this is hard to grasp for someone who lives in a true city, but a lot of people in a place like Northern Virginia feel that life in a city is to be avoided - what I especially liked was how often I heard and read that the suburbs I grew up in (those demographics are for another time) are now becoming too 'ethnic,' so it was good to live even farther away, among people who were just like you, the way it was decades ago. When people drove big cars, and ignored things like conservation or long term planning, becoming increasingly shrill against other viewpoints, while growing silently frantic as their personal economic situation grew increasingly uncertain or threatening. (I'll stop there, though the fact that a major, stupid war is being fought again, in large part in both cases to defend the American Way Of Life, is also striking.)

I have no experience of New Orleans, but only a few cities in America do not think this way. And yes, it is a huge divider.

Perceptions are changing (too slowly IMHO).  DC Metro was routinely setting new ridership records every week or so all summer long.  No special events (although normal summer boost in ridership from tourists).

A new station was added to the old Red Line, and a series of office buildings (some private, also ATF HQ) sprang up for 3 blocks.

Without Metro, GAO said that they would disperse federal office buildings in the suburbs.  Figure oil consumption with & without Metro !

DC wants to build 40 miles of streetcars to feed Metro and connect neighborhoods.  The Dulles and Purple lines need to be built.  Metro is NOT all it could be !

Miami voted a half cent sales tax to expand Miami Metro from 20 miles (memory) to ~103 miles.  This suddenly made Metro "Hot" from a real estate POV.  During my visit there in 2004, 15 of 23 construction cranes were within three blocks of a Metro station (and signs/excavation for at least two more high rises that I saw).

BTW, anyone been to Miami lately and ridden the Metro ?  Is reale state still booming next to the stations (within 3 blocks).

One of the values of New Orleans is that it is a living example of a high quality of urban life coupled with low energy consumption.  Check out my comments on the contrast with NYC (another low energy city).

http://nyc.theoildrum.com/story/2006/9/28/124514/971

Peak Oil will be a large and brutal hammer.  If there is an escape (urban rail, TOD) then people will flock to it.  If there is no escape (typical US post WW II city/suburbs) then people will be beaten down by it.

Best Hopes,

Alan

Alan

Not to diss New Orleans, as was, is, or will be,

but

it had one of the highest murder and other crime rates of any US city, was (in)famous for its corruption and civic mismanagement, and some of the poorest urban dwellers in America.

A very special place.  A place of music.  A place so unlike much of America, where you work to live not just live to work.

But an urban idyll?  Hardly.  A desparately poor place, whose major industry was providing a glimpse to a past life, for an America that had moved beyond it.

Contrast that to a 'we all love to hate' city. Las Vegas.  High average income, high unionisation, a place where ordinary people move to and can enjoy the fruits of the American dream.  An invented place, much like America itself.  That high average income and benefits and the correlation with unionisation is no accident-- it is unionisation that has always brought those benefits for American workers, and the absence of same that has meant they do not have it.  A place where black people move to so they can live like whites-- with a place in the suburbs, a car, a steady job, the things the white middle class used to take  for granted.  A place where ordinary people who can no longer afford LA, can move to and buy a house.

Now LV doesn't look 'sustainable' to me-- out in the desert, no water, dependent on cars and cheap flights.  But there it is, and it works, and it delivers both the dark and the bright side of the American dream.

My own view is that with Global Warming, it is more than likely that the US will abandon NO within this century: perhaps a big dike around the French Quarter and a sort of 'Williamsburg-like' historical district, but much of the city will just not be sustainable with the kinds of storms we are likely to experience by the middle of the century.

Watching Toronto struggle with its problems, and Toronto had one of the best transit systems in North America ('ride the Red Rocket'), now seriously financially troubled, I am not sure light rail/ subways work in the modern urb.  A lot depends on whether you can change the zoning, to build the apartments, offices and shopping malls along the streetcar nexuses (nexi?).

But for the 4.5 million people of the Greater Toronto Area (projected to be 8 million before 2050) I think the transit solution will be 'smart car' whether it be minivan taxi systems, road pricing or some combination of car-based measures.

(this written by a man who lives in Europe, and loves Toronto for its old streets and streetcars)

Valuethinker: I live in Toronto. What has happened with the transit system is that the federal and provincial governments have abandoned it. The main Yonge street subway line is crowded 8 am to 7 pm. This line was built in the 60s. Basically Toronto is used as a cash cow for the federal and provincial governments.The method of dividing up property tax revenue was changed so that Toronto taxes could greater support the rest of the province. The only solution would be for the city to break away from the province of Ontario, which is a weight dragging it down.  
Also I think that as the GTA has expanded, the densities have fallen.  I think you need 20k per square mile to economically justify public transit.

The old City of Toronto worked well and had a density that easily justified that (I think 25k people live within half a mile of Yonge and Eglinton alone).

The TTC always ran well and at a profit in the old Boroughs: Toronto, York, East York.  It was never so successful in the post war suburbs (North York, Scarborough, Etobicoke) where the densities are so much lower.

And the suburbs fought against increases in their density-- this is what screwed the Spadina Subway extension (I still remember the bitterly cold day it opened in ?1975?).  There just hasn't been that much development at Glencairn and that.  With the honourable exception of Mel Lastman when he was Mayor of N. York and NY City Centre.

I wonder if the mistake will be fixed on the Shepherd Subway?  Don Mills and that are still pretty low density (condo blocks notwithstanding).

Well, dispersal happens anyways - such as the entire high tech/high security buildings along Rt 28 near Dulles, or the moves to Jefferson County, in West Virginia (a not so little Byrd told them to), and a lot of military plans to shift things from Crystal City (various naval bureaus, for example). GAO is responsible for much, but it is not responsible for military decisions - a very murky area, to put it mildly. And with so much of Homeland Security shrouded in mystery if not blatant graft (see, New Orleans isn't so unique - DC knows all about graft wrapped in Southern manners), a decent overview of what the government is doing is increasingly harder to create.

My point remains that though Metro is working well, and is actually a fairly functional system within its fairly narrow confines, it is only a fraction of the total amount of travel in the region, and until that car travel declines, it will remain a significant factor, but lower than 40% of all commuter trips in the region - and using DC in isolation is deceptive in terms of how many Metro riders reach Metro.

As for the Metro being full this summer - yes, it was, more than I expected. On the other hand, I have been informed by people who work regularly at various federal facilities, all parking at such buildings includes under vehicle inspections and various other time consuming security measures - parking in DC is really, really a major hassle even if you have one of the dwindling number of 'free' parking spaces in government buildings (except Congress - the parking near Union Station is just so cute, and I am sure it will expand as required).

and a lot of military plans to shift things from Crystal City (various naval bureaus, for example).

The move of the military out of Crystal City is he best externally-initiated thing to happen to Arlington in a while.  The majority of the land owners (ie Charles E Smith/Vernado) are chomping at the bit to redevelop the 60's era buildings and re-tenant with commercial enterprises.  The tenants-to-be are also clamering to get Crystal City space once the whole area is renewed.  It's really quite amazing.  We appreciated the Navy folk that were there, but the concrete-canyon decor was not much appreciated (due to lack of sidewalk activation and just plain bad architecture) and that is all being changed for the better.  See link for ongoing planning:

http://www.arlingtonvirginiausa.com/index.cfm/11250

Well, you have read about the traffic impact to the region? This is part of what I mean about Metro and commuting in Northern Virginia.

And yes, Crystal City is the sort of place which needs some improvement to make it inhabitable. Though what a great example of America's vision of the future, ca. 1960/70 - nothing but glass and concrete and cars.

I guess you are referring to BRAC as far as traffic?  You don't hear much about that in Arlington as impact on us is negligable.  I do hear about it in the Fairfax papers and from worried Fairfax residents.  They are moving almost 10,000 employees down to Ft Belvoir and of course all they can think about is which roads and interchanges need to be widened.  There is a slight chance this will spur the construction of the once planned metro spur out to Belvoir, but I'm not holding my breath and anyway, aside from some new housing on Belvoir designed by Torti-Gallas, the offices at Belvoir will be too spread out to support metro access.  

I would say Crystal City needs improvements to make it beautiful, as it is alread inhabited by over 6000 residents and probably 5 times that many office workers.  Quite a bit out of balance for what we like to see at our metro stops, but that is changing.  We just approved a project to convert a large office to residential.  I was dubious about it, but they are totally reskinning the outside and making it work well with the street, and the apartments inside will have very nice high 12 ft ceilings since it is commercial-grade construction.  

Crystal City was named by the majority land-owner after his wife, Crystal so he already thinks it is beautiful - here's his website

http://crystalcity.com/

Of course, I disagree.  Although, its not mearly the beige, 60's style architecture, it was the philosophy at the time to seperate the cars and pedestrians so Crstal City was designed with a whole network of human tunnels and shops underground as well as many skywalks.  This had the effect of sucking the human life off the street, turning the streets into traffic sewers, and of course as a result they paid little attention to the design of the building at the street level.  The street-level makeover is making the biggest difference to the area with shops and restaurants now opening onto the street in places.  

Arlington resident, Adrian Cronaur (The Good Morning Vietnam guy) and others actually seem to like the underground shops as he documents here:

http://walkarlington.com/go/crystal.html

I haven't been there in over a year, but I have heard that the transformation is well underway and people who live there seem quite happy with it.  It's funny that it is only 2 miles from my house but I haven't been there in so long, but there's plenty to do in my own neighborhood so haven't had the need.  

I wonder if the Miami Metro planners considered AGW's rising waters? But then I see most of south Florida being flooded by 2050.
It's a problem in a lot of places. New York City to be sure.

London as well.  My father actually helped install flood doors in some of the London Tube lines after the war (they could then double as atomic war shelters, which was a concern at the time).

But the Tube already regularly floods.

Our government is always talking about 'joined up thinking' (ie interdepartmental policy coordination).

However the intention is to put new nuclear reactors on existing, licensed reactor sites.  To combat global warming.

It was then pointed out that some of these sites are, on the Environment Department's forecasts, likely to be under water by the middle of the century (at least during a bad storm).

Thats a very apt description of the DC Metro area, a place I came of age in (Reston VA) and promptly fled from when I had the means to.  

Comments:
Metro has been great in spuring densification near a number of its stops.  Part of that is no doubt economic in nature, encouraged on by the local jurisdictions.  Many of the inner suburbs are quite urban in feel and car use more of a liability than an asset.  However the relative affluence of those areas in conjunction with the extremely dispursed nature of the high paying jobs further out in Tysons, Reston, and across the Potomac along I270 ensure those "urban residents" continued to use their cars.  Immigrants, the poor and those working in DC proper would generally use Metro.  

Then there is this whole issue with these "high density suburbs" that cluster about the landscape, places with urban levels of population density (residential and office towers) plunked down in a distinctly suburban land use patterns (single use zoning) transportation networks (hierarchical).  I blogged that last summer, but my criticism still applies today.

It's an oldie, but goodie introduction to the "sucking chest wound" (as one of my commenters put it) that is metropolitan DC.

http://unplanning.blogspot.com/2005/07/high-rise-suburbia.html

The rest of the DC area beyond the Beltway is your garden variety sprawl with little use for public transportation (beyond subsistance level bus service for the indigent, elderly or immigrant).  With the metro "boundaries" reaching to the mountains in the west, the bay in the east and damn near to Fredricksburg in the south, no amount of "public transportation" will rectify this mess.  At least here in the West, topography generally has limited the extent of our sprawl.  Not so there.

Although I left the area in 92 and the East in 96, my family still lives in NoVA so I get to periodically reaccquaint myself with some of the many reasons I left the area when I go to visit.

Your description of urban in the suburban nicely matches 'North York Town Centre' in Toronto.  The post war suburb built a 'downtown' around a new city hall and the original 19th century farm house of high rise condos and offices (and a new subway stop).

It doesn't really work.  People seeking fun go downtown by subway or car, and what you have is a long canyon of buildings, boiling in summer, freezing cold in winter, and massive traffic jams.  No street life to speak of, no atmosphere.

http://www.globalairphotos.com/large/ON/Toronto/North_York/2002/114/2

Valuethinker: You summed it up. It is getting a little better, simply because there are an incredible number of condo buildings there now (most built in the last 10 years).More restaurants, bars, but it still doesn't have that downtown feel.
God I remember walking there, looking for a job on hot summer in mid June 1982.  I thought I would melt.

It's still got no character, no cover from the icy cold winds or the blazing sun, no sense of the pedestrian.  You feel completely marginalised by the traffic.  And I've never found a decent restaurant (maybe I am not looking hard enough).

Contrast that to the top of Avenue Road, where you still have the little shops and restaurants along the road and a neighbourhood feel.

Even Bathurst and York Mills has more character, albeit a bit spooky sometimes?  My lawyer has his office in a strip mall up there.

though the freightyards in Arlington are long gone, to make space for malls, condos, and offices.

The true part of this statement is that the freightyyards are gone.  People think I'm strange when I wonder aloud if we will ever need freight yards back some day.  

However, the rest of your statement is misleading.  Of the 45 acres in the freightyard on the Arlington side (we call it the North Tract), about 28 acres will be devoted to a tremendous open-space recreation area with multiple gardens/parks, soccer fields, a world-class aquatics (swimming etc) facility and other indoor recreation.  The exact mix isn't finalized, but the community process and designing is well underway and the funding is already secured through an 80 million dollar bond.

It's true that in the other 18 acres, there will be condo's offices, retail and perhaps some cultural facilities and these will all be connected into the North Tract Rec area as will the rest of Arlington though transit and yes, some parking will be provided.  

This link will take you to the Arlington site where another link goes to the PDF task force report for the North Tract

http://tinyurl.com/lrfma

I am out of date, to put it mildly, but my reference was not to what is planned, but to what existed the last time I went through the various areas, years ago. Especially the park on top of Rt 66 - I actually ate once there years ago just to see if it would be as bad as imagined - it was, which was no surprise.

Arlington (which I lived in for a few years) always struck me as one of the hardest to classify areas in Northern Virginia. Alexandria, Fairfax, Prince William / Manassas, Loudoun / Leesburg - not hard to stereotype and fairly easy to predict what they would do. But Arlington? You just never knew - music and art, good food, mixed with fairly poor police and some clear distinctions between north and south.

I understand Arlington is hard to classify.  We are the smallest county in the united states but have statistics and a built form that is looking more like a city in terms of how many restaurants, thatres, offices etc that people  walk to.  North and South (as delineated by Arlington Boulevard) do have a different character, but both "sides" of Arlington have been rapidly changing.  Soon, South Arlington will have its own light rail corridor as a counter component to the heavy rail corridors along Rosslyn/Ballston and along the Potomac.  

Not sure what you mean about the police.  I was upset when the new chief reduced the bicycle patrols because I thought it made them more approachable and the ones in crusiers tend to speed a bit much.  But, they still are not bad at community relations as far as cops go.  

Any TOD person should come out for the Clarendon Day party in the Clarendon Neighborhood of Arlington, Oct 21 - one of the many street festivals that Arlington has - food, bands, arts etc

Here are some pictures from last year:
http://www.beyonddc.com/privatesets/ClarendonDay05/

More info at the Alliance
http://www.clarendon.org/index.html

Remember - I'm out of date. It used to be that Arlington had by far and away the most erratic police in Northern Virginia - you never knew what they would or wouldn't do, what they would or wouldn't tolerate, or what they would ignore or wouldn't ignore, is probably the best way to sum it up. In exchange, the court system wasn't that bad at dismissing charges - they too seemed to realize that the police were not exactly the best.
The largest shortcomings of the DC Metro are that

  1. it was built for commuters as a hub and spoke and now there is MUCH more demand for inter=city travel in DC as almost every neighborhood in DC is, or is becoming a destination where people live,work,shop and play (so there is much more demand to travel between these neighborhoods at non-commute times).  This is also very true of the inner suburbs like where I live in Arlington.

  2. It is busting at the seams in terms of utilization.  The off-peak times are where the peak-times were 20 years ago and the peak times are packed to the gills.  Unfortunately, they made the decision when they built it to not easily allow for adding parallel track so the remedy is limited to adding longer trains (doable, but limited in effect), and making a spot improvement at the Orange/Blue line crossing at the potomac.

DC and the inner suburbs are adding residents quickly, however the biggest by far land-use problem is the lack of affordable housing.  The desire to live in the city and in the close-in, walkable communities is so great that land prices have shot up many-fold over the last 10 years.  This also is squeezing out independent retailers that gave the neighborhoods their character, being replaced by more national chains who can afford space renting at 40-60 a square foot when it used to be 4-10 a sq ft.  

Most of the people swarming back to the city are 20-30 somethings and 50-60 empty-nesters, but there are some with children as well and they are very active in the community.  Arlington public schools are among the best in the country and that attracts a lot of people, also you can get a single family withing walking distance of your school, your daycare, the grocery, movie theatres' restaurants, the metro etc - although it will cost you from 800K and up.  I live in such a house but it was bought 10 years ago when it was a third the price.  

The outer suburbs are a completel different story.  Whereas DC and the inner suburbs put land-use and zoning in place when the metro was constructed to turn the areas around the metro into mixed-use villages, the outer suburbs did very little planning and mostly reacted to the increasing number of single family houses that ate up their farmlands by building and widening roads.  Their metro stops are basically parking lots.  Now Tysons Corner, the most inner of the outer suburbs is trying to become a real downtown since they may get a metro extension, but I'm not too optimistic.  They will have lots of office, retail and residential, but the form of the development and street network will not be very urban.  The attitude of their community is still focussed on people driving rather than making a great place for people first.

I wrote this fast, so apologies for typos etc.

Tysons Corner is definately trying to "urbanize" itself.  Or at least planners are anyway.  Check out their proposed street improvments

http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/dpz/tysonscorner/nofind/Drftgridconcepts.pdf

It remains to be seen how successful this endevor will be.  If we maintain a degree of order for another 5-10 years as our energy supplies begin to contract -OR- we begin a wholesale re-engineering of our cities in expectation of said decline, then I think Tysons may be kindof neat a decade from now.  Otherwise this planning process will grind on until the collapsing economy kills it off and squatters inhabit the abandoned structures.  Who knows.  I'm just glad I am not there to witness it.

In anycase, I agree Arlington is an attractive place in general.  I've been there a number of times (mostly via Metro) and enjoyed myself.  Too bad the rest of the area is not like that or even better, DC proper.

TOD makes a winning argument everyday.

A winning argument is one that convinces people, not one that you think should convince people.  Failing to understand that fundamental difference is why normal people write you off...

First, many people on slashdot will favor the "but, dude, we have technology!" argument. Many will not understand the difference between a fossil fuels energy source and their laptop.
...
Yeah, I was surprised by the slashdot geeks' comments as well. Seeing that programming computers is very technical, detailed, and mathematical, I was expecting the /. crowd of nerds to understand and embrace Peak Oil. Instead, it's their unwavering belief in "technological improvements" that will put this "so-called peak oil theory" to the trash bin.
...
I was absolutely flabbergasted by that thread over at /., you would think that they'd be able to come to grips with this faster than the normal public.

...no matter how many elitist ad hominems you resort to.

Most of the highly-rated serious comments on Slashdot were of the form "for reason X, I don't think their analysis is correct."  If your response to reasonable skepticism is to complain about how stupid Slashdotters must be, then perhaps you have less of an investment in empiricism and more of an investment in faith than you're willing to admit.

I started reading Slashdot the day it was launched. A couple of years ago, a post on Slashdot inspired me to investigate the claims of the peak oil community. I stopped reading Slashdot a couple of weeks thereafter because I no longer cared about the vast majority of the stories they covered. But the "First, many people on slashdot [...]" statement got me curious enough to return to see just how Slashdot readers would react.

If you look at the comments now, they really aren't all that bad. This has to do with the way comments are rated and displayed on the site. If you scroll half-way down the comments, down to where comments with a rating of 1 or 2 start appearing, their will be plenty of chaff with your wheat, but the highly rated comments (which means that Slashdot readers saw their value) really aren't that bad.

Although Slashdot's comment rating scheme is far from perfect, I often wish that TOD had something similar.

Being a programmer, never heard of slashdot before, I peeked over there - a usual mix of comments seems to me. I've tried my own "salesmanship" with the techno-optimist engineers I work with, and they all have their rationalizations why things will turn out okay.

It seems like it all comes down to ignorance. Smart people don't like to admit their ignorance any more than anyone else, so they take logical shortcuts that support their gut feelings - whether optimisic or pessimistic.

Myself, I KNOW I'm arguing from a POV of expecting scarcity in a world that says otherwise. For people who expect abundance, there's NO argument that will convince the future will be otherwise. I imagine if every debate could continue in depth, both sides would have to conclude we just don't know exactly what the facts are.

I don't know how to effectively "argue ignorance" to promote concern and defensive responses, but it seems all I can do. Of course the optimists have FAITH the people in-the-know will keep things humming, and give us fair warning if there's a problem. I'm curious about that too, but my explanation is most technical people are not looking at the bigger picture, but only three steps ahead in their little corner.

I think Heinberg, Simmons, and Hirsh are all pretty good at the ignorance argument, while Campbell, and others who try to PREDICT get into more trouble with the "crying wolf" risks, not that prediction is bad, just that it must somehow state every other sentence its limits.

As a frequent reader of slashdot and this site, it is very intresting to watch the worlds collide.

At this point in time it may turn out that peak oil will be simply an interesting transition period. My own country, Australia, cut petrol consumption by 5% in one year of oil prices above $60/barrel. There are numerous technologies and social constructs available to replace Oil for transportation or at least to use it far more efficiently.

I think for the most part the slashdot crowd see Yet Another Set of Profits of Doom and yawn. Been there, down that.

It's not that I don't think we have a problem, I do. I'm just  rather optimistic that it will be solved in various reasonably unpainful ways.