284 comments on The End of Fossil Energy
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Certainly energy consumption will decrease in proportion to its availability. Its just basic thermodynamics. If the "free market" is taken to be the entire World System, and since it is obvious that consumption can't exceed availability, then it doesn't matter what fancy economic theories are applied, consumption will go down as availability declines. It is so for yeast, and it is so for man. The question becomes "what will be left of a civilization that is defined by consumption as consumption declines?"
I guess the "liberal survivalist" notion of Peak Oil adherents is the vison that we can go from one state of energy consumption to another in a relatively calm manner -- "no man is an island", "we can all work together to solve common problems," etc.
History, to the extent it is any guide, suggests the opposite. And if you go to FreeRepublic.com or any similar site, you may be impressed as I am with the vitriol that is heaped upon those who believe that Reason and Cooperation are keys to the future.
I guess the test of our survival as a species, or at least as a civilization, will be the extent to which the Peak Oilers can influence the Freepers to develop a saner future.
Political alliance is an identity statement, not a policy statement. So we are talking about emotions and how people organise themselves vis-a-vis the world, rather than intellectual debate.
By nature, Liberals see shades of grey, think things are amenable to reasoned debate-- we see problems and want to tinker with them and fix them. Conservatives see overarching values and principles, which cannot be compromised. They see black and white.
Think Jimmy Carter v. Ronald Reagan. The former reasoned and complex policy prescriptions (a la John Kerry) involving conservation the latter a certainty in positive outcomes, in the abundance of energy and the environment. In the case of GWB, add an unshakeable religious faith, and a conviction of being God's chosen.
I have to say the latter mindset is much more aligned with the self-view of Americans as the optimistic 'country of the future' and with the instincts of the American electorate. I would say the former, slightly wonkish outlook, is more how Europeans tend to see the world. Obviously the West Coast of the US is home to many people of the former view (particularly Northern California, Oregon, coastal Washington) and so is the north east.
Having torn ourselves apart in two World Wars, the Holocaust, the Soviet Purges, etc. etc. we Europeans are by nature less optimistic ;-). Also Europe is a small place with few natural resources.
(I am ignoring religious conservatives in this discussion, which is a different group again-- one of the most interesting developments of the last few years has been the rise of an 'ecological' evangelical movement. Small perhaps, but when you have Pat Robertson saying he believes in man-made global warming, the times, they are 'a changing (I hope)).
On the net, there is a strong libertarian heritage (think www.janegalt.net) which is quite intellectual, but also quite dogmatic (sometimes). Instapundit is a bit like that.
Conversely on FreeRepublic, you get the 'dark side' of the conservative mindset. A degree of xenophobia/ homophobia sometimes creeps in, and certainly a 'kill them all and let God sort them out'.
*When people describe Global Warming as a 'conspiracy against America' one has to understand that, emotionally, they mean it.
Puts the Peak Oil crowd in exactly the same position. Americans (of the conservative stripe) do not, by and large, recognise physical limits on human activity.
I don't think the FreeP types are amenable to reason. What one has to wait for is tangible evidence in the outside world of a need to change behaviour.
* the left wing version of this is some of the conspiracy sites. The 9-11 Conspiracy ones are exemplars of this, to my mind.
what someone said about the Free Republic - if people had trouble getting along when resources were plenty, why do we think they're going to get along when resources are scarce ?