Just thought I'd re-post a thing I buried at the end of an old thread, in response to Phil Relig (the quotes are from him). He asserts that resource wars are coming and will be merciless. (Phil, if you respond here, could we agree to leave out religion?)

Resource wars?

But self-interest does often lead to violent conflict of incredible lethality.  I can point to WWII and WWI as leading examples

Let's examine these examples. I maintain that they are not illustrations of "self-interest" wars : they were losing propositions for all parties involved.

WWI was triggered by bungling, WWII by ideology.

The various parties to WWI did indeed have conflicting imperial interests. However, nobody launched the war as an instrument of policy. The interlocking nature of alliances, and the strategic constraints of the parties, made rapid escalation inevitable. But it could very well have been prevented, had there been a diplomat/statesman of the stature of, say, Metternich. And all parties would have been much happier and wealthier.

WWII : though it can be described as a "resource grab" on the part of Germany, in reality it was an irrational, ideologically-driven war which can in no way have been said to benefit the German people. It can be argued that Hitler could have won; if he had not attacked the USSR, etc. But the very fact that he did, against all logic, is proof that it was fundamentally an ideological war and not a self-interested one : it required a mystical belief in the superiority of Germans and the inevitability of their victory, to justify it in self-interested terms.

What makes you think that humanity will NOT eventually revert to the kind of mass ferocity associated with WWI and WWII in the wake of Peak Oil?

This:
I will concede that Africa, in particular, will continue to have resource wars; they are certainly not new there.
But today we have rational actors at the head of the major military powers (ok, GWB excepted, but they are not going to let him touch the buttons any more). The salutary corrective reaction of US electors confirms my "faith" in the relative stability of this situation. Russia or China might conduct resource wars, but only if they were damn sure of winning. No way would either one take a gamble or make a blunder like the Iraq invasion. There may be plausible scenarii (takeovers of Central Asian republics?) but they will not be cataclysmic.

Europe will not launch resource wars, because democracy will hold, and will demand moral foreign policies.

Lose-lose resource wars are possible in theory, but require recklessness and lack of information on the part of the perpetrators. Concerning the major military powers, I therefore count them unlikely, because information (and even diplomacy) are much better than they used to be.

Unequal treaties are going to be a growth industry, on the other hand.

I have to wonder if you aren't underestimating the irrationality of US residents when deprived of their "non-negotiable" lifestyle.  A few years of increased gas prices and poor results in our first oil grab have resulted in the Republicans losing power.  Two more years of bad results and people will hand the presidency to a Democrat.  Four more years of loss of our lifestyle and the American public may be ready to put a warmonger in place to take oil back from those foreigners who have made our lives miserable.  Does anyone doubt that Reagan would have invaded the middle east if things hadn't improved?  Haven't we already started that invasion now?

The leaders have more information, but that doesn't mean the electorate that votes in leaders is really better informed.  Besides <sarcasm> we are the world's only superpower, doesn't that mean we have a right to be rewarded for our efforts to maintain order?  Doesn't that mean that we are entitled to our outsize share of the world's energy resources? </sarcasm>

If you look at the big picture of the engagement of the USA with the rest of the world, there are alternating periods of interventionism and of isolationism. I think it's a pretty safe bet that we're heading towards a period of the second sort. Once bitten, twice shy.

And again (and again and again), I'm waiting to hear of a plausible scenario for a successful resource grab.

(And for anyone who defends the idea that the Iraq intervention constitutes a successful resource grab, I'd be interested in examining that proposition in detail.)

But a lot depends on the quality of the next presidency. Muddle and bungle, or a "moon-shot" effort to redefine America's energy economy?

alistair, you make many naive assumptions in your initial post - that our leaders are "rational" and would remain so if they were under the same pressures as those crazy Africans for example.  Or that there is "no way" the chinese or russians would "take a gamble"...

You cannot imagine a "plausible scenario for a resource grab" because your thinking is limited by your First Worlder bias and because of your limited life experiences.

Look at our history since we learned to record it. Can you find a plausible example where we faced situations similar to Peak Oil and there was Not a "resource grab?"

The world has not even begun to feel the pinch of declining Energy and declining Matter.  

"Civilized" applies only to those who can afford it.  Humans are animals.  All of our cute little "morals" and "ethics" are Negotiable. And even the Culturally Superior Westerners will sink to the same levels of depravity as those crazy africaners.

   

OK, I'm still waiting for anyone to come up with a plausible resource-grab scenario.

WRT central Asia, I think it's quite likely that China and/or Russia will end up with complete control over the oil producing republics (if they aren't already), but I don't expect war will be required. Much less trouble to pay off a local satrap. No gambling required.

Other than that, who are the candidate perpetrators and victims? I want to see lists. Anyone crazy enough to try another middle-eastern country? (The problem there is the people are so dumb, they don't know when they are beaten.) Or Venezuela? Please?

I know what people are capable of. I saw what happened in Yugoslavia. Atrocities perpetrated by people no different from your neighbours, or mine. Atrocities committed by nation states for economic reasons are another matter.

I suppose it is a moot point as to whether the Russian invasion and devastation of Chechyna is politically motivated, i.e. to defend the integrity of the Russian Federation, or a resource war in the sense that Chechnya is critically located in regard to the access to central Asian oil and gas.
Bearing in mind that Yeltsin had just smashed the USSR, and that there was a real danger of the Russian federation exploding, I don't see why you'd need to look for complicated explanations. He thought that by coming down hard on the Chechens, he'd put the fear of God in the other potential breakaways. It actually worked, except for the Chechens.

After the fact, you can graft on whatever other motives you want. Religion, resources. And they end up coming true.

plausible    how bout  country x has wmds   their president is a dictator    country x is a threat to our homeland security     country x has known ties and is working with osama bin whoever  and the legacy of not invading country x is a mushroom cloud over our major cities   plausible    but not necessarily successful
OK, I'm still waiting for anyone to come up with a plausible resource-grab scenario.

You are asking the wrong question and that's why you are reaching to the wrong answer. The right question would be: is there a plausible resource-grab scenario for the powers that be.

I can assure you - there sure is! If PO starts to byte really hard, the only way the rich guys can prevent a revolution is to go military. Aren't we seeing that already happening??? These wars will not be for the resources only, they will be to counter the pressure from inside. Of course from a long-term point of view this will also be a doomed cause. But if you put yourself in their shoes, maybe at some point they will decide that they do not haveanu other choice.

I have to agree.  What kind of energy related problems will we face?  A colasped economy?  During WW1and WW2 jobs were in more basic industries, I look around in amazement at what  provides jobs and wonder how long will it last.  I can't see people willingly giving in to a reduced energy lifestyle.  Mega-merchants sell all this electronic stuff like ihome to an accepting public.  Unless the message is "tough get used to it and worse" we will elect some nut-case who will pull the trigger or some small bunch of countries will get into it and the bigger ones will be pull onto sides.  I think it will be a rough ride - not impossible but very, very tough.

The election of the Dem's sent a message(will it be heard?)  Everyone seems to think that this will solve our problems, I don't.  While I hope it lets the world know that we are not beholden to our leaderships path, I fear that politics is still about getting elected and that is the biggest part of the problem IMHO (ie the money and influence required - not the election process).  There is a saying that democracies die when the public realizes that they can vote themselves benefits from the treasury.
The dem's had better get ready to get to work - changing people's expectation on energy and the sacrifices that are needed come first. Most people who think we need to reduce our energy use think that "someone else" is using too much not them.  Good luck!  

I have to wonder if you aren't underestimating the irrationality of US residents when deprived of their "non-negotiable" lifestyle.

The US Dollar exists as it is today because US Dollars is how you get oil in the global market.  

What would be the citizens reaction to a collapse of the dollar and an unwillingness of other nations to take the US Dollar as a means of trade?

I doubt a shrugging of shoulders and saying 'oh, that silly invisible hand'.

Japan attacked the US in WWII because of cutoffs of oil and steel and other raw materials.  They could not keep their war machine in china and  manchuria operating without these resources.

Britain was within days of losing its food and fuel supply due to U-boat activity in the atlantic.

We would not be in Iraq if the ME area had no oil and gas.

And in WWI Germany and the central powers were trying to change the balance of power; which most emphatically included resources locked up by French and British and Russian colonialit mercantilism.

Alistair, perhaps you should read more about the actual history of these two conflicts.

"Alistair, perhaps you should read more about the actual history" period.  Start with "The Naked Ape"...
Yeah, I read that when I was 12. Do you have a point?
Thanks for the patronizing comments. What makes you think I haven't done the reading?

There is no doubt whatever that there is a resource-access component in WWI, which I acknowledged in my original post. There are any number of alternative systems for reading that war. Orthodox power politics, Marxian class analysis (the ruling classes of the two sides colluded to emasculate the workers), etc, etc... None of these analyses is the exclusive truth.

But if you are alleging that the central powers <b>deliberately</b> launched WWI to shift the balance of power and grab resources, you are certainly going out on a limb.

And if that was their intention, it was hardly an unqualified success.

In any case, nobody has come up with anything even remotely resembling a modern resource-grab scenario. Which demonstrates my principal point.

But today we have rational actors at the head of the major military powers

There is no such thing as a 'rational actor'.  The foundations of that assumption in neo-classical economics have all but crumbled. We can be rational and we can be emotional, depending on the conditions, but are definitely not rational all the time, especially at the top of social hierarchy.

A few quotes for now:

"In one way or another, all our experiences are chemically conditioned, and if we imagine that some of them are purely spiritual, purely intellectual or purely aesthetic, it is merely because we have never troubled to investigate the internal chemical environment at the moment of their occurrence." - Aldous Huxley

and

"The brain finishes the work half a second before the information it processes reaches our consciousness"
 -Michael Gazzaniga

Im writing a post on this soon, but first I have to go shovel snow.

"Nature's Mind" is a fantastic book.

Gazzaniga's research on people with severed corpus callosums (sp?) is mind-blowing.

We are not who we think we are.

In the general case, a mature democracy does not have to rely on the rationality of a single person, because checks and balances limit the danger of rash irrational actions.

This is what I was getting at with the notion of "rational actor". Increasingly it's a matter of collective decision-making, and at very least, of accountability. Bush was an exception in that his administration has perverted the US democratic system. (I say "was" : I believe he is now a lame duck, he could no longer launch a war against Iran for example.) I anticipate that the US system is sufficiently resilient to correct this perversion and strengthen itself against future hijacking. I may be wrong.

That's not to say that collective decision-making is trouble-free, but at least it's not subject to the vagaries of cocaine, alcohol or whatever Huxley was smoking.

No Bush could still launch a war against Iran.

Since WWII the US has never declared war against another country: not North Korea, not North Vietnam, not Cuba, not Panama, not Iraq, not Nicaragua, not Libya, not Lebanon.  Yet US forces have fought in all those countries (bar Nicaragua, and then there was the CIA).

The War Powers Act grants the President great leave to act in defence of the USA by military action, down to (effective) preemptive war.

If Bush wants to go to war with Iran, the only Constitutional measure which could stop him would be impeachment (and then the Vice President, Dick Cheney, would be President).

Can you see the Senate passing an impeachment bill with 2/3rds majority, with America at war with Iran?

Can you see the Senate passing an impeachment bill with 2/3rds majority, with America at war with Iran?

2 slightly different views:

If there was goi9ng to be an impeachment, would their suddenly be a war with Iran?

If you belive the hardcore gold bugs position that 'bankers casued assination of the various US presidents', there are all powerful powers behind the elected leaders who would kill others, or whatever theories exist.....would it be simplier for others just to assinate the leadership?    One claim of the oil being replaced in the marine helicopter is bouncing about on the internet.

Either situation woudl suck.

Perhaps the worry about the rection to the above is why the 'impeachment is not on the table' statements have been made.

Mob rule is a type of collective decision making and mob rule can be very violent and very "aware" of the fact that resources held by a smaller mob could be beneficial to the larger mob that a member is a part of.

Mob rule was rightfully feared by America's founders, and hence they designed a Republic, one with checks and balances between functions of government.  A Republic by the way which was supposed to limit which people could vote and which couldn't.  The whole idea was to preserve a "wiser" ruling elite.  Admittedly I think their concept of land ownership indicating wisdom was a faulty one, but the premise of every person being allowed to vote has been a question bothering me for some time and the notion that everyone should be able to vote I sometimes wonder is perhaps the reason our political system is in the mess that its in and I sometimes wonder will be the downfall of this country.

Perhaps the crux for me is because fundamentally the notion of a wide body of "elite" and wise voters sounds like it has merit, but then the problem of determining who is wise is that nasty snafu one gets hung up on.

But I would never assume that Democratic governments are anywhere near rational, and I've said this before, that pure logic is not something I think humans would enjoy being ruled by.  Pure logic probably would've had us killing off a lot of people already, as pure logic would dictate that its wasteful to spend resources on those members who are unable to support themselves.  We place emotional value to things like welfare, and tending to the old and infirmed.  The emotional value to me is a very important piece of our humanity and without it I think we would be even more brutal than we are with it, even when we see examples of emotion's darker side such as hate, jealousy and envy.

that pure logic is not something I think humans would enjoy being ruled by

Should read:

that pure logic is not something I think humans would not enjoy being ruled by

that pure logic is not something I think humans would not enjoy being ruled by

VS the whims of the enforcers that now exist?

A system of logic where the rules are known sure sounds a lot better than a kleptocracy.   Or a system based on favors.  Or what ever it is that exists now.

I believe he is now a lame duck, he could no longer launch a war against Iran for example.

I think the Israeli's are more likely to take the offensive step at this point: "Israel official: Strike on Iran possible." Then the US fleets in the Persian Gulf play the part of defender against Iranian counterattacks. When the Iranians inevitably hit one of our ships, we are in a position to legitimately counter-attack.

This looks to me like just as much an attempt at stalemating the Iranians as a real attempt to give us an excuse to strike. As in "We warned you that you should give up your nuclear program. Don't be surprised if the Israeli's aren't willing to wait for the UN. And don't expect to attack Ras Tanura or Persian Gulf shipping in response without setting off a much bigger conflagration." Come to think of it, the US would be pretty well positioned to seize Khuzistan in this process. We could claim that it was done in the interests of international energy security.