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239 comments on DrumBeat: November 10, 2006

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sendoilplease on November 10, 2006 - 1:57pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
alistair, you make many naive assumptions in your initial post - that our leaders are "rational" and would remain so if they were under the same pressures as those crazy Africans for example.  Or that there is "no way" the chinese or russians would "take a gamble"...

You cannot imagine a "plausible scenario for a resource grab" because your thinking is limited by your First Worlder bias and because of your limited life experiences.

Look at our history since we learned to record it. Can you find a plausible example where we faced situations similar to Peak Oil and there was Not a "resource grab?"

The world has not even begun to feel the pinch of declining Energy and declining Matter.  

"Civilized" applies only to those who can afford it.  Humans are animals.  All of our cute little "morals" and "ethics" are Negotiable. And even the Culturally Superior Westerners will sink to the same levels of depravity as those crazy africaners.

   

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alistairC on November 10, 2006 - 2:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
OK, I'm still waiting for anyone to come up with a plausible resource-grab scenario.

WRT central Asia, I think it's quite likely that China and/or Russia will end up with complete control over the oil producing republics (if they aren't already), but I don't expect war will be required. Much less trouble to pay off a local satrap. No gambling required.

Other than that, who are the candidate perpetrators and victims? I want to see lists. Anyone crazy enough to try another middle-eastern country? (The problem there is the people are so dumb, they don't know when they are beaten.) Or Venezuela? Please?

I know what people are capable of. I saw what happened in Yugoslavia. Atrocities perpetrated by people no different from your neighbours, or mine. Atrocities committed by nation states for economic reasons are another matter.

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toilforoil on November 10, 2006 - 6:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I suppose it is a moot point as to whether the Russian invasion and devastation of Chechyna is politically motivated, i.e. to defend the integrity of the Russian Federation, or a resource war in the sense that Chechnya is critically located in regard to the access to central Asian oil and gas.
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alistairC on November 12, 2006 - 5:37pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Bearing in mind that Yeltsin had just smashed the USSR, and that there was a real danger of the Russian federation exploding, I don't see why you'd need to look for complicated explanations. He thought that by coming down hard on the Chechens, he'd put the fear of God in the other potential breakaways. It actually worked, except for the Chechens.

After the fact, you can graft on whatever other motives you want. Religion, resources. And they end up coming true.

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elwoodelmore on November 10, 2006 - 6:41pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
plausible    how bout  country x has wmds   their president is a dictator    country x is a threat to our homeland security     country x has known ties and is working with osama bin whoever  and the legacy of not invading country x is a mushroom cloud over our major cities   plausible    but not necessarily successful
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LevinK on November 10, 2006 - 7:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
OK, I'm still waiting for anyone to come up with a plausible resource-grab scenario.

You are asking the wrong question and that's why you are reaching to the wrong answer. The right question would be: is there a plausible resource-grab scenario for the powers that be.

I can assure you - there sure is! If PO starts to byte really hard, the only way the rich guys can prevent a revolution is to go military. Aren't we seeing that already happening??? These wars will not be for the resources only, they will be to counter the pressure from inside. Of course from a long-term point of view this will also be a doomed cause. But if you put yourself in their shoes, maybe at some point they will decide that they do not haveanu other choice.

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239 comments on DrumBeat: November 10, 2006

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