<DrumBeat: November 27, 2006 The Oil Drum A little more updating of information>

129 comments on LNG To The Rescue?

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totoneila on November 27, 2006 - 4:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hello Dave Cohen & Prof Goose,

Terrific keypost,Dave!

C'mon TODers--rattle the Tipjars please!

Repost of my Reddit comment:
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This is a critical report that is very well written and quite detailed in pointing out the impending natgas crunch in North America [NA].  The super-far LNG transport distance from the MidEast to NA has a built-in cost disadvantage that will economically hammer NA consumers.

IMO, NA needs to start a maximum effort at super-insulation of homes, solar water-heaters, and other conservation measures so that we can still afford to buy LNG to make petro-fertilizers.  Otherwise, not only will we be sitting in the dark freezing our asses off, but we will be starving too.  It is far past time for a NA call to 'all hands on deck' for massive change.  Please read & study, then forward to other family members, friends, and community leaders.
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Have any engineers studied the possibile viability of a gasline jumping the Atlantic from Liberia, Africa to Brazil?
This is the shortest distance across 'the pond', and mostly below the primary hurricane routes.  It seems that such massive LNG boiloff over the tremendous ME to NA transport distance combined with the required future huge #'s of LNG tankers and regasification plants could be economically offset by a pipeline.

The pipeline could be submerged [to escape the surface weather & waves], but supported by buoys and floating pumping stations [similar to the giant FSPOs at offshore oilfields].  Computer sensors on the buoys could reel out or reel in cable to prevent the buildup of 'whiplash' effects in the pipeline.  The US Navy should have no problems protecting the pipeline trans-ocean corridor from attacks.

IMO, seems like the enormous costs involved for this pipeline would more than offset the costs of liquifaction of natgas, then the LNG tanker costs and boiloff loss, plus the final regasification stage.  This is where a very accurate ERoEI and net energy analysis of the two methods [ships vs pipeline] could be absolutely critical-- but the potential savings would be huge over time.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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AlanfromBigEasy on November 27, 2006 - 5:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Even if such a project were feasible (not in any economic , there are all sorts of issues with it.

Political (see the # of national boundaries crossed)

Terrorism/Military - Several people do not like the US.  Hard to think of an easier target (Iraq has a hard time keeping the pipeline to Turkey open).

Pipelines can be very efficient movers, but they still take energy.  The embedded energy in the pipeline is large as well.

I think the EU will pay a small premium for diversity of supply (not TOO much Russian gas) and Japan is looking for replacements for Indonesian gas.  Add a bit for China & Korea and I see minimal amounts coming to the US.

Outside T&T, our friends in Venezula, West Coast of SA (see earlier), the best US prospect for new LNG is that island of stability, Nigeria.  Shipping distances are not that much further to US Gulf ports than Spain/UK and the US Gulf seems to be where most new US LNG ports will actually be built.

Russian LNG to Eastern Canada with some going south also seems like a "good deal".  So far, new East US LNG ports seem few & far between.  AFAIK, Canada already has one contract for Russian LNG.

The US will, IMVHO, just become the highest cost NG in the world.  Supply & demand.

Best Hopes,

Alan

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BOP on November 27, 2006 - 5:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Petrocanada was seeking a Russian contract to supply a LNG facility located on the lower St Lawrence. My understanding is that nothing has yet been signed. Subsequent to this Russia did sign agreements to supply NG to Europe. I don't know if this contract superceded the one with PEX.
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AlanfromBigEasy on November 27, 2006 - 5:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
BTW, I am aware of Qatari contracts with US destinations in mind. I still see relatively small amounts of Qatari gas reaching the US.  The economics work against it IMVHO.

And the US $ may be weaker soon as well.  The recieving terminal is the lowest cost part of the supply chain, so alternative destinations besides the US (say Japan) are entirely possible.

One bright spot, LNG will provide a price floor for wind turbine generated electricity in the US.

Alan

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totoneila on November 27, 2006 - 5:38pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hello Alan,

Thxs for your thoughtful reply, as usual.  True, this pipeline would cross many [currently hostile] borders, but it could also offer a path for the US to make many friends.  Admittedly, a BIG IF.

These countries cannot afford a pipeline on their own, but if we built this across their geographies and pre-agreed to share some percentage of the gas with them--it could really help their societies.  If my webrider idea has any merit: it could also form the backbone of an above-ground transport system across Africa, then across South America [SA], then up the Central America spine to join the proposed SuperNafta Corridor and Hirsch's fifteen favored detritovore states.

True--I am thinking more wild & crazy ideas, but if this is possible, then these people would have a very strong incentive to protect the pipeline vs blowing it up.  As we all know at the present time: it is very cheap and easy to attack a slow-moving tanker.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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129 comments on LNG To The Rescue?

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