160 comments on The Potential of Electrified Urban Rail and/or Electric Vehicles
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160 comments on The Potential of Electrified Urban Rail and/or Electric Vehicles
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GAIA Host Collective
Checmical battery life is usually a function of the # of cycles. Using them on the grid could be prohibitively expensive.
Since EV technology is far from mature, nothing can be determined with certainity.
I prefer hydro pumped storage, The US has about 8 GW installed today.
Best Hopes,
Alan
I somewhat arbitrarily place the transition from Phase I to Phase II when the US/North America can run 100% off renewables + nuke for 1,000 hours/year.# I assume that this is a point of ever increasing renewables (+ nuke ?) and the next year will have even more hours of 100% renewable + nuke.
Strong March winds might fill up all available pumped storage and leave no option but "spilling" (hydro term) some renewable energy. The spill at the Phase I/II boundary would be much less than 1% of total energy, but it is a trend not to be continued (IMHO).
Thus I stated "Phase I - EV not good, Phase II - EV good".
Small EVs (also called neighborhood EVs) like GEM are almost like electric bicycles, good at any time. Their energy consumption is so low, efficiency so high and they are not suitable for high speed, long distance commuting so I support them now, in Phase 0.
OTOH, the Toyota RAV4 EV has higher consumption and can help preserve suburbia. Let "the market" push that EV w/o gov't subsidies.
Again, I propose no disincentive for large EVs (better than ICEs) but also no incentives. Focus gov't assistance on the "bigger bang for the buck" Urban Rail UNTIL we cross the Phase I/II boundary. Then subsidize EVs.
I have thought quite a bit about this and am working out my conceptual framework. This is a work in progress and not a completed plan.
Best Hopes,
Alan
# The 1,000 hours/year will be mainly at night during the spring & fall. Summer wind is at a minimum in many areas and winter is peak output but also has heating demand to absorb much wind generation.
In early Phase II (excess renewable + nuke generation for 1,xxx hours/year that can be used for pumped storage and/or charging EVs), EVs would recharge off of fossil fuels more than 1/2 of the time. Basically all summer long the marginal generation source would be fossil fuels. Also true for much of the winter and occasional periods in the spring & fall.
This assumes that the EVs recharge when told to do so by a central dispatch and not when the owner plugs them in.
However, once we get to a point where EVs can recharge, say, 1/3rd or 1/4th of the time from renewable sources AND that % is growing over time, it may be time to start pushing EVs to replace residual ICE uses.
This is a judgment call.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Checmical battery life is usually a function of the # of cycles. Using them on the grid could be prohibitively expensive.
Since EV technology is far from mature, nothing can be determined with certainity.
All true at the moment.
I'm thinking more of ultracapacitors as the basis for this setup (do a search on "EEstor" for some background) - which may be a way off (or may not materialise at all) - but it does seem to be the most promising line of development, to me at least.
Logically, if such a discharge is unlikely to happen except in bad enough accidents where fatalities are likely, it would be an acceptable new risk.
But emotionally, not so OK.
Still
Best Hopes,
Alan